Another year, another attempt to quantify the 9.2 quintillion outcomes of the NCAA tournament via my MDS Model. As I did last year, I've generated a composite set of rankings similar to what I used to sportsbet in Las Vegas.
I'm taking a composite of 4 different models, similar to what FiveThirtyEight does, and the same technique as last year:
- FiveThirtyEight (so I'm including a composite of a composite)
- KenPom (who's ratings are also included in FiveThirtyEight, so they're counted twice)
- Powerrank (created and maintained by Ed Feng)
- Massey Composite (another composite, this time spanning 68 rating systems)
I then use a weighted average of these 4 ratings that reduces outliers by weighting the ratings closer to the median higher. This smooths out the final Aggregate ratings that I then use to project the tournament. That being said, I have a good deal of trust in all of the above rating systems, so I wouldn't expect anything too crazy outlier-wise.
Note: For simplicity, I've taken the highest rated team in each play-in game and included them.
| Seed | Team | 1st Round | 2nd Round | Sweet 16 | Elite 8 | Final Four | Championship | Champion |
| East | | | | | | | |
| 1 | Duke | 100.00% | 98.28% | 80.11% | 58.13% | 37.81% | 23.02% | 13.77% |
| 16* | North Dakota St. | 100.00% | 1.72% | 0.19% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 8 | VCU | 100.00% | 52.72% | 10.84% | 4.40% | 1.45% | 0.42% | 0.12% |
| 9 | UCF | 100.00% | 47.28% | 8.86% | 3.37% | 1.03% | 0.27% | 0.07% |
| 5 | Mississippi St. | 100.00% | 71.93% | 35.26% | 11.71% | 4.84% | 1.79% | 0.64% |
| 12 | Liberty | 100.00% | 28.07% | 7.99% | 1.33% | 0.29% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 4 | Virginia Tech | 100.00% | 82.67% | 51.90% | 20.43% | 9.82% | 4.27% | 1.81% |
| 13 | Saint Louis | 100.00% | 17.33% | 4.85% | 0.62% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 6 | Maryland | 100.00% | 63.24% | 33.30% | 12.12% | 4.21% | 1.50% | 0.52% |
| 11* | Belmont | 100.00% | 36.76% | 14.67% | 3.69% | 0.88% | 0.21% | 0.05% |
| 3 | LSU | 100.00% | 77.18% | 45.15% | 17.98% | 6.85% | 2.67% | 1.01% |
| 14 | Yale | 100.00% | 22.82% | 6.88% | 1.15% | 0.18% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 7 | Louisville | 100.00% | 63.56% | 21.80% | 11.86% | 4.39% | 1.66% | 0.61% |
| 10 | Minnesota | 100.00% | 36.44% | 8.49% | 3.48% | 0.89% | 0.23% | 0.06% |
| 2 | Michigan St. | 100.00% | 95.13% | 68.98% | 49.62% | 27.24% | 15.29% | 8.42% |
| 15 | Bradley | 100.00% | 4.87% | 0.73% | 0.11% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| West | | | | | | | |
| 1 | Gonzaga | 100.00% | 98.16% | 77.94% | 56.95% | 36.19% | 20.95% | 12.22% |
| 16* | Fairleigh Dickinson | 100.00% | 1.84% | 0.19% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 8 | Syracuse | 100.00% | 52.65% | 11.98% | 5.26% | 1.77% | 0.51% | 0.15% |
| 9 | Baylor | 100.00% | 47.35% | 9.89% | 4.09% | 1.28% | 0.34% | 0.09% |
| 5 | Marquette | 100.00% | 61.83% | 29.61% | 9.60% | 3.69% | 1.23% | 0.41% |
| 12 | Murray St. | 100.00% | 38.17% | 14.01% | 3.23% | 0.90% | 0.21% | 0.05% |
| 4 | Florida St. | 100.00% | 77.73% | 48.91% | 19.61% | 9.17% | 3.78% | 1.57% |
| 13 | Vermont | 100.00% | 22.27% | 7.47% | 1.25% | 0.26% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 6 | Buffalo | 100.00% | 67.41% | 30.14% | 12.68% | 4.93% | 1.80% | 0.66% |
| 11* | Arizona St. | 100.00% | 32.59% | 9.45% | 2.49% | 0.60% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 3 | Texas Tech | 100.00% | 85.61% | 56.58% | 29.81% | 14.67% | 6.89% | 3.26% |
| 14 | Northern Kentucky | 100.00% | 14.39% | 3.83% | 0.65% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 7 | Nevada | 100.00% | 55.72% | 20.65% | 9.27% | 3.46% | 1.21% | 0.43% |
| 10 | Florida | 100.00% | 44.28% | 14.23% | 5.62% | 1.82% | 0.55% | 0.17% |
| 2 | Michigan | 100.00% | 91.50% | 63.47% | 39.22% | 21.13% | 10.91% | 5.68% |
| 15 | Montana | 100.00% | 8.50% | 1.65% | 0.26% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| South | | | | | | | |
| 1 | Virginia | 100.00% | 97.08% | 79.91% | 60.52% | 41.42% | 27.37% | 16.33% |
| 16 | Gardner Webb | 100.00% | 2.92% | 0.49% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 8 | Ole Miss | 100.00% | 47.66% | 8.96% | 3.62% | 1.18% | 0.36% | 0.09% |
| 9 | Oklahoma | 100.00% | 52.34% | 10.64% | 4.54% | 1.58% | 0.51% | 0.13% |
| 5 | Wisconsin | 100.00% | 65.06% | 39.24% | 14.18% | 6.74% | 3.03% | 1.16% |
| 12 | Oregon | 100.00% | 34.94% | 15.92% | 3.80% | 1.26% | 0.39% | 0.10% |
| 4 | Kansas St. | 100.00% | 73.61% | 37.56% | 12.18% | 5.29% | 2.16% | 0.74% |
| 13 | UC Irvine | 100.00% | 26.39% | 7.28% | 1.10% | 0.24% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 6 | Villanova | 100.00% | 59.52% | 27.21% | 11.61% | 4.07% | 1.62% | 0.54% |
| 11 | Saint Mary's | 100.00% | 40.48% | 14.96% | 5.08% | 1.38% | 0.43% | 0.11% |
| 3 | Purdue | 100.00% | 83.84% | 53.53% | 28.10% | 12.47% | 6.21% | 2.67% |
| 14 | Old Dominion | 100.00% | 16.16% | 4.29% | 0.82% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 7 | Cincinnati | 100.00% | 53.51% | 18.09% | 7.55% | 2.30% | 0.80% | 0.23% |
| 10 | Iowa | 100.00% | 46.49% | 14.36% | 5.52% | 1.52% | 0.48% | 0.12% |
| 2 | Tennessee | 100.00% | 90.71% | 65.40% | 40.95% | 20.39% | 11.31% | 5.50% |
| 15 | Colgate | 100.00% | 9.29% | 2.15% | 0.36% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Midwest | | | | | | | |
| 1 | North Carolina | 100.00% | 97.40% | 75.57% | 51.86% | 32.56% | 17.61% | 9.22% |
| 16 | Iona | 100.00% | 2.60% | 0.31% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 8 | Utah St. | 100.00% | 52.59% | 13.17% | 5.41% | 1.90% | 0.53% | 0.14% |
| 9 | Washington | 100.00% | 47.41% | 10.96% | 4.24% | 1.39% | 0.36% | 0.09% |
| 5 | Auburn | 100.00% | 69.60% | 40.97% | 17.73% | 8.70% | 3.53% | 1.36% |
| 12 | New Mexico St. | 100.00% | 30.40% | 11.99% | 3.08% | 0.93% | 0.22% | 0.05% |
| 4 | Kansas | 100.00% | 75.14% | 40.04% | 16.31% | 7.56% | 2.87% | 1.04% |
| 13 | Northeastern | 100.00% | 24.86% | 7.01% | 1.34% | 0.30% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 6 | Iowa St. | 100.00% | 63.22% | 33.30% | 15.04% | 6.44% | 2.44% | 0.87% |
| 11 | Ohio St. | 100.00% | 36.78% | 14.74% | 4.84% | 1.49% | 0.39% | 0.10% |
| 3 | Houston | 100.00% | 82.63% | 47.90% | 23.09% | 10.59% | 4.31% | 1.67% |
| 14 | Georgia St. | 100.00% | 17.37% | 4.06% | 0.70% | 0.11% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 7 | Wofford | 100.00% | 61.22% | 22.60% | 10.62% | 4.08% | 1.37% | 0.43% |
| 10 | Seton Hall | 100.00% | 38.78% | 10.64% | 3.85% | 1.10% | 0.27% | 0.06% |
| 2 | Kentucky | 100.00% | 92.90% | 65.48% | 41.68% | 22.84% | 11.31% | 5.40% |
| 15 | Abilene Christian | 100.00% | 7.10% | 1.28% | 0.18% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Some quick reactions:
- North Carolina seems to have the toughest route, but also has the lowest rating in my model of the 1 seeds. These two combined factors result in the lowest probability of the 1 seeds of reaching the Final Four (32.56%)
- Of course Virginia has the lowest chance of winning their first game out of all the 1 seeds (97.08%)!
- The fan base that has the best right to complain is Michigan St: they're #4 overall, yet get #2 Duke in the Elite Eight, and only have a 27.24% chance of reaching Minneapolis
The top 12 teams in the tournament are as follows:
| Rank | Team | Rating |
| 1 | Virginia | 95.38 |
| 2 | Duke | 94.78 |
| 3 | Gonzaga | 94.23 |
| 4 | Michigan St. | 93.03 |
| 5 | North Carolina | 92.71 |
| 6 | Michigan | 91.94 |
| 7 | Tennessee | 91.40 |
| 8 | Kentucky | 91.05 |
| 9 | Texas Tech | 90.22 |
| 10 | Purdue | 89.35 |
| 11 | Virginia Tech | 88.43 |
| 12 | Florida St. | 88.10 |
5 of these top 12 are ACC, which is a real testament to the strength of the conference. The Big 10 has 3, the SEC has 2, and the Big 12 only has 1.
A word of caution about straight up copying the above: in most pools you want to gauge "contrarian" picks relative to the overall pool. My suggestion would be to use the above probabilities as a guide ("I'm just a guide"), and make contrarian picks that have a good chance of happening (like picking a champion that has solid odds but isn't necessarily the favorite).
Here's the full rating set as well:
| Rank | Team | Rating |
| 1 | Virginia | 95.38 |
| 2 | Duke | 94.78 |
| 3 | Gonzaga | 94.23 |
| 4 | Michigan St. | 93.03 |
| 5 | North Carolina | 92.71 |
| 6 | Michigan | 91.94 |
| 7 | Tennessee | 91.40 |
| 8 | Kentucky | 91.05 |
| 9 | Texas Tech | 90.22 |
| 10 | Purdue | 89.35 |
| 11 | Virginia Tech | 88.43 |
| 12 | Florida St. | 88.10 |
| 13 | Houston | 87.78 |
| 14 | Auburn | 87.71 |
| 15 | Wisconsin | 87.60 |
| 16 | LSU | 86.75 |
| 17 | Kansas | 86.74 |
| 18 | Iowa St. | 86.67 |
| 19 | Buffalo | 86.34 |
| 20 | Louisville | 86.33 |
| 21 | Kansas St. | 86.09 |
| 22 | Mississippi St. | 85.97 |
| 23 | Nevada | 85.74 |
| 24 | Villanova | 85.73 |
| 25 | Maryland | 85.44 |
| 26 | Marquette | 85.05 |
| 27 | Wofford | 85.00 |
| 28 | Cincinnati | 83.79 |
| 29 | Florida | 83.74 |
| 30 | Syracuse | 83.22 |
| 31 | Oklahoma | 82.83 |
| 32 | VCU | 82.72 |
| 33 | Utah St. | 82.56 |
| 34 | Iowa | 82.56 |
| 35 | Saint Mary's | 82.37 |
| 36 | Baylor | 82.29 |
| 37 | Oregon | 82.21 |
| 38 | Ole Miss | 82.01 |
| 39 | Ohio St. | 81.96 |
| 40 | UCF | 81.76 |
| 41 | Washington | 81.65 |
| 42 | Minnesota | 81.49 |
| 43 | Seton Hall | 81.03 |
| 44 | Murray St. | 80.85 |
| 45 | Belmont | 80.72 |
| 46 | New Mexico St. | 80.56 |
| 47 | Arizona St. | 80.04 |
| 48 | Temple | 78.76 |
| 49 | St. John's | 78.16 |
| 50 | Liberty | 77.87 |
| 51 | Vermont | 77.46 |
| 52 | UC Irvine | 77.28 |
| 53 | Northeastern | 77.28 |
| 54 | Yale | 76.36 |
| 55 | Old Dominion | 75.57 |
| 56 | Northern Kentucky | 75.39 |
| 57 | Saint Louis | 75.30 |
| 58 | Georgia St. | 74.67 |
| 59 | Colgate | 72.94 |
| 60 | Montana | 72.79 |
| 61 | Abilene Christian | 70.56 |
| 62 | Bradley | 69.91 |
| 63 | Gardner Webb | 68.98 |
| 64 | Iona | 65.61 |
| 65 | North Dakota St. | 65.26 |
| 66 | Fairleigh Dickinson | 65.10 |
| 67 | Prairie View A&M | 65.01 |
| 68 | North Carolina Central | 57.12 |
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