The Bump (or Lack Thereof) From Winning Your Conference Tournament

My friend/former "splash bro" intramural teammate submitted the following query: Do teams that win their conference tournaments go further in the NCAA tournament?

I looked at every power conference tournament champion since 2002 (chosen since it was the first year KenPom released ratings), which encompasses the ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, SEC, and Pac 12. 

I seriously considered leaving out the Pac 12, since the last time they won the whole thing was 1997 with Arizona. However, if I used that cutoff, I would have had to eliminate the Big 10 too, as they last won in 2000 with Michigan State... (no, Maryland does not count)

Year	Champion	Conference	Won Conf?
2018	Villanova	Big East	1
2017	North Carolina	ACC	0
2016	Villanova	Big East	0
2015	Duke	ACC	0
2014	Connecticut	AAC	0
2013	Louisville	Big East	1
2012	Kentucky	SEC	0
2011	Connecticut	Big East	1
2010	Duke	ACC	1
2009	North Carolina	ACC	0
2008	Kansas	Big 12	1
2007	Florida	SEC	1
2006	Florida	SEC	1
2005	North Carolina	ACC	0
2004	Connecticut	Big East	1
2003	Syracuse	Big East	0
2002	Maryland	ACC	0

8 of the past 17 champions won their conference tournament, 8 more were at-large from power conferences, and the only non-power conference champion was Connecticut (AAC) in 2014.

There are anecdotal examples for each extreme: Connecticut going on their run in 2011, winning 11 consecutive games en route to the title, or Virginia, dominating the ACC all year last year and then losing to UMBC. 

All in, this is how all conference tournament victors performed:

Finish	Count	%	Cumul %
First Round	14	13.7%	100.0%
Second Round	20	19.6%	86.3%
Sweet 16	26	25.5%	66.7%
Elite 8	17	16.7%	41.2%
Final Four	11	10.8%	24.5%
Championship	6	5.9%	13.7%
Champion	8	7.8%	7.8%
Total	102	100.0%	100.0%

The seeds contained in this set run the gamut from title contenders to teams that had no business making the tournament (see: Georgia, 2008). So you would expect the above list to be a little bi-modal, and it is. 

I then compared the chances each team had of reaching the next round against the "average" chance each seed has, based on this year's bracket math.

Seed	2nd Round	Sweet 16	Elite 8	Final Four	Championship	Champion
1	97.7%	78.4%	56.9%	37.0%	22.2%	12.9%
2	92.6%	65.8%	42.9%	22.9%	12.2%	6.3%
3	82.3%	50.8%	24.7%	11.1%	5.0%	2.2%
4	77.3%	44.6%	17.1%	8.0%	3.3%	1.3%
5	67.1%	36.3%	13.3%	6.0%	2.4%	0.9%
6	63.3%	31.0%	12.9%	4.9%	1.8%	0.6%
7	58.5%	20.8%	9.8%	3.6%	1.3%	0.4%
8	51.4%	11.2%	4.7%	1.6%	0.5%	0.1%
9	48.6%	10.1%	4.1%	1.3%	0.4%	0.1%
10	41.5%	11.9%	4.6%	1.3%	0.4%	0.1%
11	38.6%	14.9%	5.0%	1.4%	0.4%	0.1%
12	32.9%	12.5%	2.9%	0.8%	0.2%	0.1%

The 102 finishes of the conference tournament champions are fairly similar to a generic 2 seed, except with worse odds to win their first game and better odds of making the Final Four or further.