As I did for NHL, I've compiled 10,000 simulation runs using each team's Pythagorean expectation for the upcoming NBA playoffs. While I haven't kept up this model in a few years, I was very successful with it back in 2015 and 2014.
That being said, this year's iteration definitely has some surprising results:
| Team | Second Round | Conf Finals | NBA Finals | Champion |
| Western Conf | | | | |
| Golden State | 87.42% | 53.63% | 38.32% | 15.56% |
| LA Clippers | 12.58% | 2.35% | 0.50% | 0.06% |
| Houston | 48.09% | 19.91% | 11.62% | 3.51% |
| Utah | 51.91% | 24.11% | 14.90% | 5.21% |
| Portland | 57.81% | 33.17% | 12.56% | 3.03% |
| Oklahoma City | 42.19% | 20.48% | 6.09% | 1.19% |
| Denver | 70.08% | 36.40% | 13.94% | 3.41% |
| San Antonio | 29.92% | 9.95% | 2.07% | 0.25% |
| Eastern Conf | | | | |
| Milwaukee | 96.44% | 80.54% | 63.35% | 49.31% |
| Detroit | 3.56% | 0.71% | 0.12% | 0.00% |
| Boston | 60.56% | 12.04% | 5.80% | 2.57% |
| Indiana | 39.44% | 6.71% | 2.76% | 0.95% |
| Philadelphia | 72.47% | 23.39% | 3.81% | 1.19% |
| Brooklyn | 27.53% | 3.96% | 0.32% | 0.05% |
| Toronto | 86.72% | 67.40% | 23.34% | 13.65% |
| Orlando | 13.28% | 5.25% | 0.50% | 0.06% |
I don't take into account any type of playoff experience bump like FiveThirtyEight does, so a couple of the above numbers stand out:
- Milwaukee as an almost 1 in 2 favorite! Maybe there is some value on them relative to their 6/1 title odds in Vegas, but the Warriors projection seems just a tad low
- Utah over Houston in Round 1!! I actually have Utah as the 2nd strongest team in the West (see below), and this is reflected in their second best chances to come out of the West too
- Detroit with literally a 0.00% chance to win it all. Over 10,000 sims, this is actually very hard to achieve. 10,000 different possible versions of reality and not in ONE did they win the title
Maybe this will all look clairvoyant when Giannis clinches Finals MVP in Game 5 over the Warriors, which my model shows has a very elevated 6.5% chance of happening.
| Western Conf | Pyth | Rank |
| Golden State | 0.719 | 2 |
| Denver | 0.647 | 8 |
| Portland | 0.649 | 7 |
| Houston | 0.670 | 5 |
| Utah | 0.687 | 4 |
| Oklahoma City | 0.622 | 10 |
| San Antonio | 0.563 | 12 |
| LA Clippers | 0.529 | 13 |
| Eastern Conf | | |
| Milwaukee | 0.782 | 1 |
| Toronto | 0.709 | 3 |
| Philadelphia | 0.597 | 11 |
| Boston | 0.659 | 6 |
| Indiana | 0.625 | 9 |
| Brooklyn | 0.500 | 15 |
| Orlando | 0.527 | 14 |
| Detroit | 0.488 | 16 |
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