What follows below is a pretty straight forward simulation result using each team's Pythagorean expectation, ran 10,000 times. There aren't any quirks to the NHL playoffs (outside of seeding) like there used to be, such as re-seeding after each round.
A word of caution though: this model did horribly 5 years ago in NHL, yet was pretty spot on for NBA. It also disagrees pretty significantly from more advanced models, such as on the Islanders:
| Team | Second Round | Conf Finals | Stanley Cup Finals | Champion |
| Western Conf | | | | |
| Nashville | 58.21% | 29.11% | 13.57% | 5.17% |
| Dallas | 41.79% | 18.37% | 7.24% | 2.10% |
| Winnipeg | 52.85% | 28.70% | 13.41% | 4.98% |
| St. Louis | 47.15% | 23.82% | 10.59% | 3.83% |
| Calgary | 69.05% | 45.20% | 29.22% | 14.78% |
| Colorado | 30.95% | 14.03% | 6.10% | 2.07% |
| San Jose | 54.06% | 22.50% | 11.31% | 4.06% |
| Vegas | 45.94% | 18.27% | 8.56% | 2.85% |
| Eastern Conf | | | | |
| Tampa Bay | 77.62% | 55.41% | 42.03% | 31.11% |
| Columbus | 22.38% | 9.68% | 4.51% | 2.01% |
| Boston | 57.30% | 21.38% | 12.16% | 6.83% |
| Toronto | 42.70% | 13.53% | 6.94% | 3.62% |
| Washington | 53.30% | 25.45% | 8.43% | 4.14% |
| Carolina | 46.70% | 20.93% | 6.41% | 2.78% |
| NY Islanders | 53.35% | 30.04% | 11.28% | 5.89% |
| Pittsburgh | 46.65% | 23.58% | 8.24% | 3.78% |
That being said, it's hockey, and outside of the top seeds in each conference (Tampa Bay and Calgary), every single first round matchup has a favorite at less than 60% to advance.
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