Friday, October 16, 2020

The Los Angeles Chargers Probably Aren't Hurt by Lack of Fans (But Other Teams Are)

Ever since the San Diego Super Chargers moved to Los Angeles to play out of the LA Galaxy's MLS stadium, they've struggled to attract any type of a home fan base, so much so that their opposing team's fans would frequently overrun the stadium. This problem became so bad last year that the NFL reportedly thought about relocating them to London or back to San Diego.

This presumably would eliminate or reverse their home field advantage (HFA). I compiled all non-neutral site games over the last 13 seasons (prior to this season's COVID-affected fan rules), and compared every franchise's performance in each city. If a team moved to a new stadium within the same city (like the Minnesota Vikings did in 2014 and 2016), those results are combined; if a team changed cities (like the Rams did from St. Louis to Los Angeles in 2016), then they're considered separate fan bases.

The Los Angeles Chargers are easily last:

RankLeagueTeamPts HomePts AwayDifCountHFA
1NFLNewEngland3,7392,9407992353.40
2NFLPittsburgh2,9162,2846322232.83
3NFLDallas2,8962,2956012162.78
4NFLNewOrleans3,3422,8155272212.38
5NFLSt.Louis1,3611,0353261442.26
6NFLSeattle2,8482,3684802272.11
7NFLDenver2,7122,2784342181.99
8NFLDetroit2,4822,1193632111.72
9NFLAtlanta2,7882,4173712181.70
10NFLHouston2,6152,2573582181.64
11NFLArizona2,5492,2023472171.60
12NFLChicago2,4052,0763292111.56
13NFLBuffalo2,2421,9393032101.44
14NFLMiami2,2011,9042972101.41
15NFLCincinnati2,3872,1082792141.30
16NFLSanFrancisco2,4202,1412792191.27
17NFLOakland2,1611,8952662091.27
18NFLGreenBay3,1372,8702672281.17
19NFLMinnesota2,5772,3272502171.15
20NFLNYJets2,2412,0421992140.93
21NFLSanDiego2,1131,9931201680.71
22NFLTennessee2,3272,1801472150.68
23NFLIndianapolis2,6522,5231292220.58
24NFLBaltimore2,6932,5701232250.55
25NFLCarolina2,4182,326922160.43
26NFLCleveland1,9151,832832080.40
27NFLWashington2,1502,095552110.26
28NFLNYGiants2,4872,435522180.24
29NFLKansasCity2,4382,404342190.16
30NFLPhiladelphia2,7052,680252200.11
31NFLJacksonville2,0082,043-35213-0.16
32NFLLARams825857-3268-0.47
33NFLTampaBay2,1102,259-149209-0.71
34NFLLAChargers561610-4950-0.98
NFLOverall81,42173,1198,3023,4402.41

In San Diego they were below league average, but in LA it's completely flipped, to the point that their opponent actually has close to half of an average home field advantage.


So it's safe to say that the lack of fans isn't hurting them this season. But what about other teams that don't have fans (outside of immediate family/team personnel)?

The highest number of home games thus far is 3, so it might be too early to draw conclusions, but teams with fans have a substantially higher HFA than no fans, where it's slightly reversed against the home team:

TypeHFA
Average2.41
20190.13
20200.86
w/ Fans3.81
w/o Fans-0.65

Interestingly enough, three of the four worst HFAs are all teams that have moved in to brand new stadiums (Las Vegas and Los Angeles), and have yet to have fans. There is a weak positive correlation (0.138) between teams with fans and a higher home field advantage:

RankLeagueTeamPts HomePts AwayDifCountHFAFans?
1NFLPittsburgh922666416.500
2NFLDallas1154867513.401
3NFLCleveland101554659.201
4NFLTennessee75472847.001
4NFLNewOrleans94593557.000
4NFLKansasCity92573557.001
7NFLSeattle100693156.200
8NFLHouston69412855.601
9NFLNYJets51242755.400
10NFLNewEngland57401744.250
11NFLBaltimore85642154.200
12NFLWashington54351953.800
13NFLAtlanta67551252.400
14NFLDetroit5247541.250
15NFLIndianapolis6462250.401
16NFLCarolina6161050.001
17NFLTampaBay6970-15-0.200
18NFLMinnesota6468-45-0.800
19NFLChicago4857-95-1.800
20NFLSanFrancisco5767-105-2.000
20NFLGreenBay7280-84-2.000
20NFLCincinnati4656-105-2.001
23NFLBuffalo6277-155-3.000
24NFLArizona5375-225-4.400
25NFLPhiladelphia4271-295-5.800
25NFLJacksonville4069-295-5.801
27NFLNYGiants2556-315-6.200
28NFLMiami5185-345-6.801
29NFLLasVegas5794-375-7.400
30NFLLAChargers3674-385-7.600
31NFLDenver2458-344-8.501
32NFLLARams3799-625-12.400
Correl0.138

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