The Los Angeles Chargers Probably Aren't Hurt by Lack of Fans (But Other Teams Are)

Ever since the San Diego Super Chargers moved to Los Angeles to play out of the LA Galaxy's MLS stadium, they've struggled to attract any type of a home fan base, so much so that their opposing team's fans would frequently overrun the stadium. This problem became so bad last year that the NFL reportedly thought about relocating them to London or back to San Diego.

This presumably would eliminate or reverse their home field advantage (HFA). I compiled all non-neutral site games over the last 13 seasons (prior to this season's COVID-affected fan rules), and compared every franchise's performance in each city. If a team moved to a new stadium within the same city (like the Minnesota Vikings did in 2014 and 2016), those results are combined; if a team changed cities (like the Rams did from St. Louis to Los Angeles in 2016), then they're considered separate fan bases.

The Los Angeles Chargers are easily last:

Rank	League	Team	Pts Home	Pts Away	Dif	Count	HFA
1	NFL	NewEngland	3,739	2,940	799	235	3.40
2	NFL	Pittsburgh	2,916	2,284	632	223	2.83
3	NFL	Dallas	2,896	2,295	601	216	2.78
4	NFL	NewOrleans	3,342	2,815	527	221	2.38
5	NFL	St.Louis	1,361	1,035	326	144	2.26
6	NFL	Seattle	2,848	2,368	480	227	2.11
7	NFL	Denver	2,712	2,278	434	218	1.99
8	NFL	Detroit	2,482	2,119	363	211	1.72
9	NFL	Atlanta	2,788	2,417	371	218	1.70
10	NFL	Houston	2,615	2,257	358	218	1.64
11	NFL	Arizona	2,549	2,202	347	217	1.60
12	NFL	Chicago	2,405	2,076	329	211	1.56
13	NFL	Buffalo	2,242	1,939	303	210	1.44
14	NFL	Miami	2,201	1,904	297	210	1.41
15	NFL	Cincinnati	2,387	2,108	279	214	1.30
16	NFL	SanFrancisco	2,420	2,141	279	219	1.27
17	NFL	Oakland	2,161	1,895	266	209	1.27
18	NFL	GreenBay	3,137	2,870	267	228	1.17
19	NFL	Minnesota	2,577	2,327	250	217	1.15
20	NFL	NYJets	2,241	2,042	199	214	0.93
21	NFL	SanDiego	2,113	1,993	120	168	0.71
22	NFL	Tennessee	2,327	2,180	147	215	0.68
23	NFL	Indianapolis	2,652	2,523	129	222	0.58
24	NFL	Baltimore	2,693	2,570	123	225	0.55
25	NFL	Carolina	2,418	2,326	92	216	0.43
26	NFL	Cleveland	1,915	1,832	83	208	0.40
27	NFL	Washington	2,150	2,095	55	211	0.26
28	NFL	NYGiants	2,487	2,435	52	218	0.24
29	NFL	KansasCity	2,438	2,404	34	219	0.16
30	NFL	Philadelphia	2,705	2,680	25	220	0.11
31	NFL	Jacksonville	2,008	2,043	-35	213	-0.16
32	NFL	LARams	825	857	-32	68	-0.47
33	NFL	TampaBay	2,110	2,259	-149	209	-0.71
34	NFL	LAChargers	561	610	-49	50	-0.98
	NFL	Overall	81,421	73,119	8,302	3,440	2.41

In San Diego they were below league average, but in LA it's completely flipped, to the point that their opponent actually has close to half of an average home field advantage.

So it's safe to say that the lack of fans isn't hurting them this season. But what about other teams that don't have fans (outside of immediate family/team personnel)?

The highest number of home games thus far is 3, so it might be too early to draw conclusions, but teams with fans have a substantially higher HFA than no fans, where it's slightly reversed against the home team:

Type	HFA
Average	2.41
2019	0.13
2020	0.86
w/ Fans	3.81
w/o Fans	-0.65

Interestingly enough, three of the four worst HFAs are all teams that have moved in to brand new stadiums (Las Vegas and Los Angeles), and have yet to have fans. There is a weak positive correlation (0.138) between teams with fans and a higher home field advantage:

Rank	League	Team	Pts Home	Pts Away	Dif	Count	HFA	Fans?
1	NFL	Pittsburgh	92	26	66	4	16.50	0
2	NFL	Dallas	115	48	67	5	13.40	1
3	NFL	Cleveland	101	55	46	5	9.20	1
4	NFL	Tennessee	75	47	28	4	7.00	1
4	NFL	NewOrleans	94	59	35	5	7.00	0
4	NFL	KansasCity	92	57	35	5	7.00	1
7	NFL	Seattle	100	69	31	5	6.20	0
8	NFL	Houston	69	41	28	5	5.60	1
9	NFL	NYJets	51	24	27	5	5.40	0
10	NFL	NewEngland	57	40	17	4	4.25	0
11	NFL	Baltimore	85	64	21	5	4.20	0
12	NFL	Washington	54	35	19	5	3.80	0
13	NFL	Atlanta	67	55	12	5	2.40	0
14	NFL	Detroit	52	47	5	4	1.25	0
15	NFL	Indianapolis	64	62	2	5	0.40	1
16	NFL	Carolina	61	61	0	5	0.00	1
17	NFL	TampaBay	69	70	-1	5	-0.20	0
18	NFL	Minnesota	64	68	-4	5	-0.80	0
19	NFL	Chicago	48	57	-9	5	-1.80	0
20	NFL	SanFrancisco	57	67	-10	5	-2.00	0
20	NFL	GreenBay	72	80	-8	4	-2.00	0
20	NFL	Cincinnati	46	56	-10	5	-2.00	1
23	NFL	Buffalo	62	77	-15	5	-3.00	0
24	NFL	Arizona	53	75	-22	5	-4.40	0
25	NFL	Philadelphia	42	71	-29	5	-5.80	0
25	NFL	Jacksonville	40	69	-29	5	-5.80	1
27	NFL	NYGiants	25	56	-31	5	-6.20	0
28	NFL	Miami	51	85	-34	5	-6.80	1
29	NFL	LasVegas	57	94	-37	5	-7.40	0
30	NFL	LAChargers	36	74	-38	5	-7.60	0
31	NFL	Denver	24	58	-34	4	-8.50	1
32	NFL	LARams	37	99	-62	5	-12.40	0
							Correl	0.138