My NBA Finals simulations had the Heat as decent favorites, and I've adapted my NBA simulator again for the WNBA Finals.
There are some minor rule differences, with the largest change being the length of the game - NBA has four 12-minute quarters, while the WNBA has four 10-minute quarters.
This was easy to adjust by simply changing the expected pace for each team - the Las Vegas Aces' pace/40 has been 78.5 in the playoffs, with the Seattle Storm at 79.5, for an average expected number of possessions of 79. Comparatively in the NBA going in to the Finals, the Miami Heat were at 97.4 and the Los Angeles Lakers were at 98.7, for an expected number of possessions of 98.1.
The neutral court, best-of-5 series should be excruciatingly close - in any given game, the Aces win 50.2% of the time, by an average score of 84.44 to 84.43. They win the series 50.3% of the time.
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