A sadder update to start this year's bracket math: 2 of the 4 models I've used the past few years are no longer in service - FiveThirtyEight and Jeff Sagarin's. Nate Silver is still publishing his model to his Substack, but it's behind a paywall, and Jeff Sagarin is no longer at the USA Today, nor is his personal web site up to date. Neither are on The Prediction Tracker either.
I'll be bringing in Seven Overtimes this year, which is a site I've followed for a long time and a resource I've used in the past. I considered utilizing ESPN's BPI as well, but I am not a fan of their metric, and their track record across multiple sports for BPI has not been stellar.
So that leaves me with 3 models this year:
I then use a weighted average of these 3 ratings, which smooths out the final Aggregate ratings that I use to project the tournament.
Note: For simplicity, I've taken the highest rated team in each play-in game and included them
| Seed | Team | 1st Round | 2nd Round | Sweet 16 | Elite 8 | Final Four | Championship | Champion |
| East | | | | | | | |
| 1 | Connecticut | 100.00% | 98.45% | 77.26% | 49.86% | 33.30% | 22.03% | 13.33% |
| 16 | Stetson | 100.00% | 1.55% | 0.14% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 8 | FAU | 100.00% | 57.87% | 14.46% | 5.52% | 2.20% | 0.86% | 0.29% |
| 9 | Northwestern | 100.00% | 42.13% | 8.14% | 2.55% | 0.83% | 0.27% | 0.07% |
| 5 | San Diego St. | 100.00% | 78.31% | 30.28% | 10.19% | 4.42% | 1.88% | 0.70% |
| 12 | UAB | 100.00% | 21.69% | 3.39% | 0.42% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 4 | Auburn | 100.00% | 84.74% | 61.03% | 30.56% | 18.53% | 11.11% | 6.01% |
| 13 | Yale | 100.00% | 15.26% | 5.30% | 0.89% | 0.21% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 6 | BYU | 100.00% | 68.12% | 31.20% | 13.88% | 4.73% | 2.02% | 0.75% |
| 11 | Duquesne | 100.00% | 31.88% | 9.35% | 2.61% | 0.51% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 3 | Illinois | 100.00% | 87.64% | 56.66% | 30.28% | 12.93% | 6.70% | 3.09% |
| 14 | Morehead St. | 100.00% | 12.36% | 2.79% | 0.43% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 7 | Washington St. | 100.00% | 43.67% | 11.71% | 3.89% | 0.85% | 0.25% | 0.06% |
| 10 | Drake | 100.00% | 56.33% | 17.99% | 7.00% | 1.87% | 0.64% | 0.19% |
| 2 | Iowa St. | 100.00% | 94.33% | 69.33% | 41.80% | 19.49% | 10.88% | 5.44% |
| 15 | South Dakota St. | 100.00% | 5.67% | 0.97% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| West | | | | | | | |
| 1 | North Carolina | 100.00% | 98.13% | 62.97% | 39.81% | 22.08% | 10.59% | 5.21% |
| 16* | Howard | 100.00% | 1.87% | 0.08% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 8 | Mississippi St. | 100.00% | 46.11% | 16.14% | 7.64% | 3.01% | 1.08% | 0.37% |
| 9 | Michigan St. | 100.00% | 53.89% | 20.81% | 10.64% | 4.59% | 1.65% | 0.61% |
| 5 | St. Mary's | 100.00% | 63.98% | 30.80% | 12.57% | 5.18% | 1.77% | 0.62% |
| 12 | Grand Canyon | 100.00% | 36.02% | 12.61% | 3.53% | 1.00% | 0.22% | 0.05% |
| 4 | Alabama | 100.00% | 79.07% | 49.86% | 24.42% | 12.03% | 5.03% | 2.17% |
| 13 | Charleston | 100.00% | 20.93% | 6.73% | 1.39% | 0.29% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 6 | Clemson | 100.00% | 46.78% | 21.34% | 7.82% | 3.17% | 1.01% | 0.33% |
| 11 | New Mexico | 100.00% | 53.22% | 25.88% | 10.26% | 4.47% | 1.55% | 0.56% |
| 3 | Baylor | 100.00% | 87.46% | 50.63% | 23.17% | 11.56% | 4.70% | 1.97% |
| 14 | Colgate | 100.00% | 12.54% | 2.15% | 0.24% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 7 | Dayton | 100.00% | 56.98% | 19.37% | 9.18% | 3.93% | 1.34% | 0.47% |
| 10 | Nevada | 100.00% | 43.02% | 12.06% | 4.89% | 1.77% | 0.50% | 0.14% |
| 2 | Arizona | 100.00% | 97.34% | 68.35% | 44.42% | 26.89% | 13.77% | 7.22% |
| 15 | Long Beach St. | 100.00% | 2.66% | 0.22% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| South | | | | | | | |
| 1 | Houston | 100.00% | 96.83% | 77.39% | 54.22% | 40.19% | 25.28% | 15.44% |
| 16 | Longwood | 100.00% | 3.17% | 0.49% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 8 | Nebraska | 100.00% | 56.39% | 13.57% | 5.60% | 2.55% | 0.86% | 0.28% |
| 9 | Texas A&M | 100.00% | 43.61% | 8.55% | 3.02% | 1.19% | 0.34% | 0.09% |
| 5 | Wisconsin | 100.00% | 70.56% | 33.81% | 12.05% | 6.41% | 2.63% | 1.03% |
| 12 | James Madison | 100.00% | 29.44% | 8.50% | 1.63% | 0.53% | 0.12% | 0.03% |
| 4 | Duke | 100.00% | 83.72% | 53.25% | 22.82% | 13.91% | 6.78% | 3.17% |
| 13 | Vermont | 100.00% | 16.28% | 4.43% | 0.61% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 6 | Texas Tech | 100.00% | 67.25% | 34.24% | 15.25% | 4.78% | 1.64% | 0.53% |
| 11 | NC State | 100.00% | 32.75% | 11.32% | 3.19% | 0.58% | 0.12% | 0.02% |
| 3 | Kentucky | 100.00% | 82.49% | 49.91% | 24.70% | 8.82% | 3.44% | 1.27% |
| 14 | Oakland | 100.00% | 17.51% | 4.53% | 0.80% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 7 | Florida | 100.00% | 52.11% | 24.50% | 13.03% | 4.36% | 1.60% | 0.55% |
| 10* | Colorado | 100.00% | 47.89% | 21.57% | 11.03% | 3.49% | 1.21% | 0.40% |
| 2 | Marquette | 100.00% | 86.85% | 51.46% | 31.47% | 12.90% | 5.72% | 2.42% |
| 15 | Western Kentucky | 100.00% | 13.15% | 2.47% | 0.52% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| Midwest | | | | | | | |
| 1 | Purdue | 100.00% | 98.15% | 79.51% | 58.08% | 38.11% | 22.95% | 13.37% |
| 16* | Montana St. | 100.00% | 1.85% | 0.21% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 8 | Utah St. | 100.00% | 42.05% | 7.23% | 2.60% | 0.74% | 0.18% | 0.04% |
| 9 | TCU | 100.00% | 57.95% | 13.04% | 5.66% | 2.01% | 0.62% | 0.18% |
| 5 | Gonzaga | 100.00% | 71.31% | 42.08% | 16.17% | 7.65% | 3.22% | 1.28% |
| 12 | McNeese St. | 100.00% | 28.69% | 10.78% | 2.23% | 0.60% | 0.14% | 0.03% |
| 4 | Kansas | 100.00% | 70.82% | 37.63% | 13.43% | 5.96% | 2.34% | 0.86% |
| 13 | Samford | 100.00% | 29.18% | 9.51% | 1.81% | 0.45% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 6 | South Carolina | 100.00% | 51.29% | 19.32% | 6.22% | 1.81% | 0.53% | 0.14% |
| 11 | Oregon | 100.00% | 48.71% | 17.79% | 5.53% | 1.55% | 0.44% | 0.11% |
| 3 | Creighton | 100.00% | 83.66% | 57.75% | 29.01% | 13.40% | 6.23% | 2.75% |
| 14 | Akron | 100.00% | 16.34% | 5.14% | 0.88% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 7 | Texas | 100.00% | 47.71% | 16.13% | 7.49% | 2.58% | 0.89% | 0.29% |
| 10* | Colorado St. | 100.00% | 52.29% | 18.74% | 9.11% | 3.32% | 1.21% | 0.42% |
| 2 | Tennessee | 100.00% | 96.32% | 64.80% | 41.73% | 21.67% | 11.34% | 5.68% |
| 15 | St. Peter's | 100.00% | 3.68% | 0.33% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Totals | 64.00 | 32.00 | 16.00 | 8.00 | 4.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Seed | Team | 1st Round | | | | | | |
| 16* | Wagner | 45.58% | | | | | | |
| 16* | Howard | 54.42% | | | | | | |
| 16* | Montana St. | 60.47% | | | | | | |
| 16* | Grambling St. | 39.53% | | | | | | |
| 10* | Virginia | 30.62% | | | | | | |
| 10* | Colorado St. | 69.38% | | | | | | |
| 10* | Boise St. | 46.08% | | | | | | |
| 10* | Colorado | 53.92% | | | | | |
Some notes:
- Sweet 16 and on are all chalk, except for Gonzaga over Kansas, and Arizona to the Final Four
- The markets/rankings all year have had a very clear top 3: Houston, Purdue, and Connecticut. And those are the only teams with > 10% to win it all
- Even so, there is a 58% chance someone else will cut down the net
- Connecticut was done no favors by getting #1 overall. Four top 10 teams are in their region
- #2 Connecticut (1 seed), #4 Auburn (4 seed), #6 Iowa St (2 seed), #10 Illinois (3 seed)
- St. John's and Rick Pitino got hosed. They would have been the 17th highest ranked team in the bracket, and are top 25 on KenPom. Compare this to the first four out:
- Indiana St: #34
- Pittsburgh: #34
- Oklahoma: #37
- Seton Hall: #46
- Also, for good measure, Virginia, who made the First Four: #51
Full rankings:| Rank | Seed | Team | Rating |
| 1 | 1 | Houston | 92.63 |
| 2 | 1 | Connecticut | 92.59 |
| 3 | 1 | Purdue | 91.58 |
| 4 | 4 | Auburn | 90.24 |
| 5 | 2 | Arizona | 89.62 |
| 6 | 2 | Iowa St. | 88.75 |
| 7 | 2 | Tennessee | 88.64 |
| 8 | 1 | North Carolina | 88.45 |
| 9 | 4 | Duke | 87.42 |
| 10 | 3 | Illinois | 87.31 |
| 11 | 3 | Creighton | 86.51 |
| 12 | 4 | Alabama | 86.22 |
| 13 | 2 | Marquette | 85.83 |
| 14 | 3 | Baylor | 85.78 |
| 15 | 5 | Gonzaga | 84.86 |
| 16 | 5 | Wisconsin | 84.61 |
| 17 | 6 | BYU | 84.02 |
| 18 | 9 | Michigan St. | 84.01 |
| 19 | 5 | San Diego St. | 83.99 |
| 20 | 3 | Kentucky | 83.80 |
| 21 | 4 | Kansas | 83.78 |
| 22 | 11 | New Mexico | 83.53 |
| 23 | 5 | St. Mary's | 83.29 |
| 24 | 7 | Dayton | 83.25 |
| 25 | 7 | Florida | 82.91 |
| 26 | 10 | Colorado St. | 82.78 |
| 27 | 8 | FAU | 82.71 |
| 28 | 8 | Mississippi St. | 82.65 |
| 29 | 6 | Clemson | 82.40 |
| 30 | 10 | Colorado | 82.18 |
| 31 | 6 | Texas Tech | 82.03 |
| 32 | 7 | Texas | 81.97 |
| 33 | 8 | Nebraska | 81.87 |
| 34 | 10 | Drake | 80.94 |
| 35 | 10 | Boise St. | 80.80 |
| 36 | 10 | Nevada | 80.79 |
| 37 | 9 | TCU | 80.44 |
| 38 | 9 | Northwestern | 79.94 |
| 39 | 6 | South Carolina | 79.80 |
| 40 | 9 | Texas A&M | 79.63 |
| 41 | 11 | Oregon | 79.35 |
| 42 | 7 | Washington St. | 78.71 |
| 43 | 12 | Grand Canyon | 78.30 |
| 44 | 8 | Utah St. | 77.65 |
| 45 | 11 | Duquesne | 77.45 |
| 46 | 12 | James Madison | 77.07 |
| 47 | 12 | McNeese St. | 77.01 |
| 48 | 13 | Samford | 76.13 |
| 49 | 13 | Yale | 75.94 |
| 50 | 11 | NC State | 75.80 |
| 51 | 10 | Virginia | 75.71 |
| 52 | 13 | Charleston | 74.94 |
| 53 | 13 | Vermont | 73.70 |
| 54 | 12 | UAB | 73.07 |
| 55 | 14 | Akron | 72.83 |
| 56 | 14 | Morehead St. | 71.17 |
| 57 | 14 | Oakland | 70.77 |
| 58 | 15 | Western Kentucky | 70.21 |
| 59 | 14 | Colgate | 69.76 |
| 60 | 16 | Longwood | 66.73 |
| 61 | 15 | South Dakota St. | 66.67 |
| 62 | 15 | St. Peter's | 63.69 |
| 63 | 15 | Long Beach St. | 62.65 |
| 64 | 16 | Stetson | 62.51 |
| 65 | 16 | Montana St. | 62.49 |
| 66 | 16 | Howard | 59.41 |
| 67 | 16 | Grambling St. | 58.79 |
| 68 | 16 | Wagner | 57.87 |
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