NBA Finals 2023 Bracket Math

Once the playoff bracket was set, and Miami barely got in to the field as the 8 seed, I gave them just a 0.7% chance to make the Finals, and only 0.1% to win the title. Out of 10,000 simulations, that's roughly 10 wins. That's it.

Their chances are a lot higher now! And their impressive abnormal(?) performance in the postseason necessitates a few assumptions to be changed in my play-by-play simulation of the Finals. I mean, I had them as the worst rated team in the field - and they did have a negative point differential in the regular season!

Per current injury reporting, I'm assuming Tyler Herro comes back for Game 3, while other injuries (like Victor Oladipo) eliminate those players from the series. I'm taking in to account Denver's significant home court advantage, which I've analyzed before, and so has Zach Lowe and others at ESPN.

The final component I had to decide on - do I use regular season data to underpin the model, or each team's postseason performance?

I didn't exactly have Denver as a juggernaut before the playoffs - they were the 4th strongest team in the West, behind Phoenix, Golden State, and Memphis. And when I use regular season only, I get a competitive series, with Denver as a slight favorite:

# Games	DEN in...	MIA in...
4	8.2%	4.9%
5	15.3%	9.5%
6	17.6%	13.3%
7	17.3%	14.0%
	58.3%	41.7%

But the Heat have been on a run for the ages, and their "new normal" is maybe this elevated postseason play. So I reran everything off of playoff statistics only... only to see Denver strengthen:

# Games	DEN in...	MIA in...
4	7.8%	4.3%
5	17.1%	8.5%
6	16.0%	14.6%
7	18.7%	12.9%
	59.6%	40.4%

Denver's chances as the favorite actually increase. My results aren't as aggressive as the betting markets (80%) and FiveThirtyEight, which has Denver as a 74% favorite. 

Ultimately I project Denver in 7 (I was wrong last year, when I had Boston in 6).

While Jimmy Butler has been otherworldly, Nikola Jokic has been even more dominant. Here is the projected average box score, using the playoff data as the input:

Name	Pos	Team	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Turnovers	Steals	Blocks
Nikola Jokic	C	DEN	34.1	12.6	12.0	3.6	1.5	0.4
Jimmy Butler	PF	MIA	25.5	5.7	5.5	1.5	1.9	0.3
Tyler Herro	SG	MIA	20.9	5.6	5.5	2.3	1.0	0.2
Bam Adebayo	C	MIA	17.7	8.8	4.4	2.4	1.2	0.4
Jamal Murray	PG	DEN	17.4	3.1	4.5	1.3	1.2	0.1
Michael Porter Jr.	SF	DEN	15.1	7.4	2.1	0.5	0.9	0.3
Aaron Gordon	PF	DEN	12.7	4.2	2.4	0.9	0.5	0.3
Bruce Brown	SF	DEN	11.3	3.1	2.2	0.8	1.1	0.1
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	SG	DEN	9.5	2.4	1.5	0.6	1.2	0.2
Duncan Robinson	SF	MIA	8.1	1.5	2.1	0.8	0.5	0.0
Caleb Martin	SF	MIA	7.8	3.1	1.2	0.6	0.6	0.1
Kevin Love	PF	MIA	7.8	5.5	1.8	0.7	0.5	0.2
Max Strus	SF	MIA	7.4	2.3	0.9	0.2	0.4	0.1
Gabe Vincent	PG	MIA	6.9	1.0	2.4	0.8	0.6	0.1
Kyle Lowry	PG	MIA	5.6	1.9	3.0	1.0	0.7	0.3
Ish Smith	PG	DEN	5.4	2.0	4.4	1.8	0.4	0.1
Jeff Green	PF	DEN	4.8	1.9	0.8	0.5	0.3	0.2
Cody Zeller	C	MIA	2.8	2.3	0.4	0.6	0.2	0.1
Christian Braun	SG	DEN	2.8	1.7	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.1
DeAndre Jordan	C	DEN	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.2	0.0	0.0

Jokic averages a triple double in the Finals 52.4% of the time. That's insane. I have him dropping 50+ 2.7% of the time, compared to 0.2% for Butler, and 0.01% for Jamal Murray (no other player recorded 50+ once in any simulation).

Compared to regular season data as the input:

Name	Pos	Team	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Turnovers	Steals	Blocks
Jimmy Butler	PF	MIA	26.0	5.5	6.2	1.4	2.3	0.2
Nikola Jokic	C	DEN	25.6	10.4	11.7	3.4	1.4	0.3
Bam Adebayo	C	MIA	25.5	10.3	4.5	2.7	1.8	0.5
Jamal Murray	PG	DEN	18.1	3.2	6.4	1.8	1.0	0.1
Aaron Gordon	PF	DEN	17.3	5.5	3.4	1.3	0.9	0.4
Tyler Herro	SG	MIA	16.2	4.3	4.3	1.8	0.8	0.1
Michael Porter Jr.	SF	DEN	14.7	4.2	1.1	0.9	0.6	0.2
Max Strus	SF	MIA	11.8	3.4	2.7	0.9	0.8	0.1
Bruce Brown	SF	DEN	10.9	3.2	3.4	1.3	1.1	0.3
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	SG	DEN	10.2	2.2	2.5	1.0	1.4	0.2
Caleb Martin	SF	MIA	9.2	4.2	1.9	1.0	1.2	0.2
Kyle Lowry	PG	MIA	7.9	2.6	4.1	1.2	0.9	0.1
Gabe Vincent	PG	MIA	7.9	1.7	2.5	1.0	1.0	0.0
Jeff Green	PF	DEN	7.8	2.1	1.2	0.7	0.3	0.1
Christian Braun	SG	DEN	5.3	2.2	0.9	0.5	0.6	0.1
Duncan Robinson	SF	MIA	4.8	1.2	0.9	0.4	0.3	0.0
DeAndre Jordan	C	DEN	3.5	2.8	0.6	0.8	0.3	0.2
Kevin Love	PF	MIA	3.3	2.0	0.9	0.4	0.3	0.0
Cody Zeller	C	MIA	2.0	1.0	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
Ish Smith	PG	DEN	1.9	0.7	1.6	0.7	0.2	0.0

Bam regresses quite a bit using playoffs only, Butler and Murray are both actually quite consistent, but Jokic rocketing up the leaderboard is the difference.