A follow-up to my post, "Lavar vs Jordan, An Incredibly Lopsided Game of One-on-One". Cooper DeJean, professional football player and former Iowa Hawkeye, made headlines when he declared he could win a game of one-on-one against Caitlin Clark, professional basketball player and former Iowa Hawkeye.
Setting aside Austin Rivers's commentary on the crossover appeal of basketball/football players, Clark holds the all-time points record in both men's and women's college basketball. DeJean was a very good high school basketball player though, scoring more points in the state of Iowa than Carolina great Harrison Barnes, and recording more steals in the state of Iowa than Carolina great Marcus Paige.
So I set out to simulate DeJean's claim that if he lost, it would be by one or two. Using Clark's college senior year statistics at Iowa, compared to DeJean's high school senior year statistics at OABCIG, I simulated a game to 21 by ones and twos.
And he's right! I have Caitlin Clark winning 53.5% of the time by an average score of 21 to 20 - a very evenly matched game.
Notwithstanding the relative quality of competition, DeJean's high school statistics are fairly comparable to Clark's last year at Iowa - but where Clark wins out is her 3-Point Attempt Rate. Not her 3 Point percentage - Clark shot 37.8% her (college) senior year, compared to DeJean's 39.5%. But 60% of Clark's field goal attempts were threes - a ridiculously high volume compared to DeJean's 21.5%.
Especially in a game of ones and twos, Clark's range and 3-point volume would give her the edge.
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