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Friday, May 26, 2017

Lavar vs Jordan, An Incredibly Lopsided Game of One-on-One

A couple of months ago, in a show of utter brashness and clickbait-worthy quotes, Lavar Ball (father of former UCLA star/lottery pick Lonzo Ball) stated he "would kill Michael Jordan one-on-one". Coming off my post simulating LeBron vs Jordan one-on-one, a friend/colleague brought up that I was looking at the wrong comparison, given Lavar's insane quote. So I threw his stats into the simulator too.

He only played sparingly over one season at Washington State in 1987-88 and averaged 2.2 points a game, so that's all the data I have to go off of. Over 10,000 simulations, Jordan beats him 93.25% of the time by an average score of 21-14.  I'm surprised Lavar's chances are this high, but the simulator doesn't take into account the difference in competition between the NBA and late 80's Pac-10 bench players. Lavar's 40.4% field goal percentage probably wouldn't hold up against the best players on the planet. 

I guess a blind hog finds an acorn roughly 6.75% of the time.

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