Sweet 16 per the MDS Model (2025)

Going in to last year's Sweet Sixteen, we had three clearly elevated teams: Houston, Connecticut, and Purdue. Connecticut went on to win the title for the second straight year. 

Houston is back again, but as the fourth favorite with better than 10% odds - Florida at 19%, Duke at 17%, Auburn at 16%, and Houston at 14%. The rest of the field makes up the other 35%.

• Most likely Final Four (5.6% chance): all four #1 seeds (Auburn + Florida + Duke + Houston), each with about a 50% chance to get there
• Chances of an all-SEC Final Four: 5.1% (Auburn + Ole Miss, Florida + Arkansas, Alabama, Kentucky + Tennessee)
• Chances of the Big 10 winning its first title since 2000: 10% (Michigan + Michigan St + Maryland + Purdue)
• Chances of the ACC winning its 9th title since 2000: 17% (Duke)

Seed	Team	Elite 8	Final Four	Championship	Champion
	Sweet 16
1	Auburn	74.48%	50.93%	29.45%	16.35%
5	Michigan	25.52%	11.01%	3.67%	1.13%
6	Ole Miss	37.73%	11.73%	3.83%	1.15%
2	Michigan St.	62.27%	26.33%	11.58%	4.79%
1	Florida	69.48%	51.52%	31.89%	18.52%
4	Maryland	30.52%	17.12%	7.28%	2.80%
3	Texas Tech	70.94%	25.87%	11.00%	4.23%
10	Arkansas	29.06%	5.49%	1.30%	0.26%
1	Duke	71.50%	46.81%	28.93%	17.06%
4	Arizona	28.50%	12.50%	5.00%	1.87%
6	BYU	29.61%	8.04%	2.57%	0.76%
2	Alabama	70.39%	32.65%	17.03%	8.39%
1	Houston	73.04%	45.76%	24.68%	13.50%
4	Purdue	26.96%	10.48%	3.25%	1.03%
3	Kentucky	36.26%	12.83%	4.25%	1.44%
2	Tennessee	63.74%	30.94%	14.29%	6.72%