Sweet 16 per the MDS Model (2024)

Going in to last year's Sweet Sixteen, we had a pretty clear top two in Alabama and Houston. They both lose immediately as large favorites, leading to a completely unexpected Final Four.

Houston is back as a co-favorite, with only a few points of championship probability added at the top - Houston and Connecticut to 17%, with Purdue at 13%. That still leaves 53% that it is anyone else.

• Most likely Final Four (3.5% chance): Connecticut, Arizona, Houston, Purdue
• Chances of Caleb Love vs North Carolina for a trip to Phoenix: 39%
• Chances of Dook vs State for a trip to Phoenix: 8%

Seed	Team	Elite 8	Final Four	Championship	Champion
	Sweet 16
1	Connecticut	73.12%	45.80%	28.96%	16.88%
5	San Diego St.	26.88%	10.34%	4.07%	1.41%
3	Illinois	45.89%	19.16%	9.31%	4.06%
2	Iowa St.	54.11%	24.71%	13.01%	6.19%
1	North Carolina	56.35%	29.72%	13.78%	6.44%
4	Alabama	43.65%	20.31%	8.17%	3.32%
6	Clemson	30.23%	10.84%	3.28%	1.01%
2	Arizona	69.77%	39.13%	19.42%	9.72%
1	Houston	64.57%	47.40%	28.51%	16.93%
4	Duke	35.43%	21.43%	9.78%	4.38%
11	NC State	23.61%	3.43%	0.60%	0.10%
2	Marquette	76.39%	27.74%	11.43%	4.62%
1	Purdue	68.51%	41.74%	23.71%	13.40%
5	Gonzaga	31.49%	13.21%	5.08%	1.92%
3	Creighton	43.92%	18.34%	7.87%	3.33%
2	Tennessee	56.08%	26.72%	13.02%	6.28%