Simulated World Series Preview 2015: KCR vs NYM

Last year, when all I had was a statistical model (that accounted for starting pitching) for baseball, I picked the Kansas City Royals to win the World Series in 6 games. Thanks to a historic performance by Madison Bumgarner, that didn't pan out. Neither did most of my other picks - neither of my World Series teams made it out of their respective first rounds. 

This year I drew up a play-by-play simulator, and the results have been considerably better: I've hit every single pick in the NL, including a sizable outright upset in the Mets over the Dodgers. Now that the probable starting pitchers are set for both teams, I can run my simulations again using the most recent postseason rosters.

The Mets win it all 56.61% of the time, with the Royals taking home the trophy the other 43.39%. Last year these probabilities were eerily similar, but in favor of the Royals... and I had them in 6 games. This year, I've got the Mets... in 6. So expect Kansas City to take it 7, because "you can't predict sports!".

KC in 4	NYM in 4	In 4
5.15%	7.59%	12.74%
KC in 5	NYM in 5	In 5
10.70%	14.77%	25.47%
KC in 6	NYM in 6	In 6
12.30%	18.85%	31.15%
KC in 7	NYM in 7	In 7
15.24%	15.40%	30.64%

The pick: New York Mets in 6

The "Cespedes for the rest of us" may just bring a title to the side of New York less accustomed to winning.

Oh my god. @Mets I can't believe I can actually say this, but is it true that there is now "A Cespedis for the rest of us"? #mets #T7L

— Jerry Seinfeld (@JerrySeinfeld) July 31, 2015