Monday, October 26, 2015

Simulated World Series Preview 2015: KCR vs NYM

Last year, when all I had was a statistical model (that accounted for starting pitching) for baseball, I picked the Kansas City Royals to win the World Series in 6 games. Thanks to a historic performance by Madison Bumgarner, that didn't pan out. Neither did most of my other picks - neither of my World Series teams made it out of their respective first rounds. 

This year I drew up a play-by-play simulator, and the results have been considerably better: I've hit every single pick in the NL, including a sizable outright upset in the Mets over the Dodgers. Now that the probable starting pitchers are set for both teams, I can run my simulations again using the most recent postseason rosters.

The Mets win it all 56.61% of the time, with the Royals taking home the trophy the other 43.39%. Last year these probabilities were eerily similar, but in favor of the Royals... and I had them in 6 games. This year, I've got the Mets... in 6. So expect Kansas City to take it 7, because "you can't predict sports!".


KC in 4NYM in 4In 4
5.15%7.59%12.74%
KC in 5NYM in 5In 5
10.70%14.77%25.47%
KC in 6NYM in 6In 6
12.30%18.85%31.15%
KC in 7NYM in 7In 7
15.24%15.40%30.64%
The pick: New York Mets in 6

The "Cespedes for the rest of us" may just bring a title to the side of New York less accustomed to winning.

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