Preseason NCAAB Ratings

College basketball is BACK! And this year I've tried to do what I do for college football, where I adjust my end-of-season Composite ratings by metrics such as player turnover and recruiting classes. As KenPom has illustrated, the upcoming season is best projected by the past few seasons for a given program. As he describes it, "In the most general sense, the main ingredient in the system is inertia. If a team has been good in the recent past, it’s likely to be rated well in the preseason."

With that in mind, I actually don't take into account recruiting for college basketball; instead, my main adjustment is based on the percentage of returning possession-minutes (that link is to an ESPN Insider article, so here's a quick rundown as described in the article): "Basically it's the percentage of minutes that a player is on the floor, multiplied by the percentage of possessions he used last season (as seen at KenPom.com)."

This ultimately gives a weighted representation of how much experience is returning from last year's team for each school, which I then use to adjust my Composite ratings. Here are my projected Top 25:

1	Virginia	0.915
2	Kansas	0.882
3	Villanova	0.879
4	North Carolina	0.877
5	Gonzaga	0.868
6	Utah	0.850
7	Wisconsin	0.847
8	Baylor	0.844
9	Iowa State	0.842
10	Wichita State	0.838
11	Cincinnati	0.833
12	Arizona	0.833
13	Oklahoma	0.830
14	Kentucky	0.828
15	VCU	0.825
16	SMU	0.824
17	Duke	0.814
18	Texas	0.800
19	Michigan State	0.798
20	Notre Dame	0.797
21	Davidson	0.785
22	Northern Iowa	0.784
23	Tulsa	0.780
24	Xavier	0.774
25	Indiana	0.773

Again, recruiting is not considered, which is why Kentucky and Duke are so low (at least those 2 schools jump out at me). The following rankings follow:

1	Virginia	0.915
2	Kansas	0.882
3	Villanova	0.879
4	North Carolina	0.877
5	Gonzaga	0.868
6	Utah	0.850
7	Wisconsin	0.847
8	Baylor	0.844
9	Iowa State	0.842
10	Wichita State	0.838
11	Cincinnati	0.833
12	Arizona	0.833
13	Oklahoma	0.830
14	Kentucky	0.828
15	VCU	0.825
16	SMU	0.824
17	Duke	0.814
18	Texas	0.800
19	Michigan State	0.798
20	Notre Dame	0.797
21	Davidson	0.785
22	Northern Iowa	0.784
23	Tulsa	0.780
24	Xavier	0.774
25	Indiana	0.773
26	San Diego State	0.773
27	Iowa	0.770
28	Maryland	0.770
29	West Virginia	0.769
30	Valparaiso	0.759
31	Stephen F. Austin	0.757
32	Old Dominion	0.751
33	Purdue	0.751
34	Georgetown	0.748
35	Butler	0.746
36	Louisville	0.746
37	Ohio State	0.742
38	Providence	0.741
39	Miami (FL)	0.740
40	Georgia	0.736
41	NC State	0.736
42	Central Michigan	0.729
43	Arkansas	0.729
44	Dayton	0.728
45	Syracuse	0.727
46	Vanderbilt	0.724
47	Oregon	0.724
48	Michigan	0.718
49	BYU	0.716
50	Richmond	0.714
51	Pittsburgh	0.714
52	LSU	0.712
53	Florida	0.712
54	UConn	0.710
55	Texas A&M	0.707
56	Boise State	0.700
57	Temple	0.699
58	Oklahoma State	0.697
59	South Carolina	0.692
60	Rhode Island	0.692
61	UCLA	0.691
62	Illinois	0.690
63	Colorado State	0.689
64	Ole Miss	0.688
65	Illinois State	0.679
66	Memphis	0.676
67	Buffalo	0.674
68	Iona	0.673
69	Stanford	0.671
70	Minnesota	0.666
71	Sam Houston State	0.664
72	Arizona State	0.658
73	New Mexico State	0.657
74	Yale	0.653
75	Akron	0.652
76	Clemson	0.650
77	Georgia State	0.646
78	Louisiana Tech	0.644
79	UC Santa Barbara	0.642
80	Alabama	0.641
81	Toledo	0.634
82	Evansville	0.628
83	Tennessee	0.628
84	Green Bay	0.624
85	George Washington	0.624
86	TCU	0.624
87	St. John's	0.623
88	Harvard	0.621
89	William & Mary	0.619
90	Colorado	0.617
91	UAB	0.616
92	Florida State	0.615
93	Hawaii	0.615
94	Murray State	0.614
95	Northwestern	0.613
96	Seton Hall	0.612
97	UTEP	0.611
98	South Dakota State	0.610
99	Hofstra	0.609
100	Pepperdine	0.609
101	Northeastern	0.609
102	Louisiana Lafayette	0.605
103	Oregon State	0.604
104	Georgia Tech	0.602
105	UC Irvine	0.602
106	La Salle	0.601
107	Wofford	0.600
108	Saint Mary's	0.597
109	California	0.593
110	Columbia	0.585
111	Kansas State	0.579
112	Penn State	0.578
113	Wake Forest	0.578
114	Utah State	0.568
115	Bowling Green	0.560
116	Marquette	0.559
117	Stony Brook	0.557
118	High Point	0.555
119	Princeton	0.554
120	UMass	0.551
121	Loyola (CHI)	0.550
122	UC Davis	0.548
123	Chattanooga	0.547
124	Creighton	0.545
125	USC	0.545
126	Middle Tennessee	0.544
127	Kent State	0.542
128	Lehigh	0.541
129	Belmont	0.541
130	St Bonaventure	0.540
131	Rider	0.536
132	Vermont	0.535
133	San Diego	0.529
134	James Madison	0.526
135	Texas Tech	0.526
136	Coastal Carolina	0.525
137	Boston University	0.523
138	Western Michigan	0.522
139	UNLV	0.521
140	Eastern Michigan	0.516
141	Saint Joseph's	0.511
142	Bucknell	0.510
143	Montana	0.509
144	Wyoming	0.507
145	Louisiana Monroe	0.505
146	Eastern Washington	0.501
147	Saint Peter's	0.500
148	Canisius	0.497
149	Albany	0.497
150	North Dakota State	0.496
151	Lafayette	0.496
152	DePaul	0.492
153	Auburn	0.491
154	Nebraska	0.488
155	Portland	0.486
156	Mississippi State	0.485
157	Western Kentucky	0.484
158	NJIT	0.481
159	Washington	0.479
160	Monmouth	0.478
161	Cal Poly	0.477
162	Cleveland State	0.475
163	San Francisco	0.473
164	Oakland	0.472
165	Manhattan	0.469
166	Northwestern State	0.461
167	American	0.460
168	Dartmouth	0.459
169	Omaha	0.458
170	New Mexico	0.457
171	St. Francis (BKN)	0.457
172	North Carolina Central	0.456
173	Northern Illinois	0.453
174	Houston	0.451
175	Boston College	0.447
176	Long Beach State	0.446
177	Indiana State	0.441
178	Duquesne	0.441
179	Florida Gulf Coast	0.433
180	New Hampshire	0.433
181	Miami (OH)	0.432
182	Army	0.432
183	Fresno State	0.432
184	Detroit	0.431
185	North Florida	0.430
186	Eastern Kentucky	0.430
187	Georgia Southern	0.430
188	Washington State	0.426
189	Quinnipiac	0.426
190	Holy Cross	0.425
191	Winthrop	0.424
192	Morehead State	0.422
193	Robert Morris	0.422
194	Rice	0.421
195	George Mason	0.420
196	Norfolk State	0.420
197	Fordham	0.419
198	Charlotte	0.418
199	Virginia Tech	0.418
200	Radford	0.412
201	Mercer	0.411
202	Gardner-Webb	0.411
203	UNC Wilmington	0.411
204	Incarnate Word	0.408
205	Denver	0.408
206	Rutgers	0.407
207	Bryant	0.406
208	East Carolina	0.403
209	Northern Arizona	0.402
210	Mount St. Mary's	0.401
211	Idaho	0.399
212	Brown	0.394
213	Milwaukee	0.394
214	East Tennessee State	0.393
215	Texas A&M-CC	0.393
216	Texas State	0.393
217	St. Francis (PA)	0.390
218	Colgate	0.389
219	Northern Kentucky	0.387
220	Saint Louis	0.387
221	Siena	0.385
222	UT-Arlington	0.385
223	Cornell	0.384
224	USC Upstate	0.383
225	Santa Clara	0.382
226	Tulane	0.382
227	Sacramento State	0.382
228	Tennessee-Martin	0.374
229	Western Carolina	0.374
230	Ball State	0.373
231	Drexel	0.373
232	Delaware	0.372
233	Eastern Illinois	0.370
234	Pacific	0.369
235	UC Riverside	0.368
236	Missouri State	0.367
237	Missouri	0.366
238	Sacred Heart	0.364
239	Ohio	0.363
240	Weber State	0.363
241	Oral Roberts	0.362
242	Furman	0.362
243	IPFW	0.362
244	Fairfield	0.357
245	Loyola (MD)	0.356
246	South Dakota	0.355
247	UCF	0.352
248	Navy	0.351
249	UNC Greensboro	0.348
250	Charleston Southern	0.346
251	Arkansas-Little Rock	0.344
252	Appalachian State	0.344
253	Wright State	0.341
254	Penn	0.338
255	Texas Southern	0.336
256	Towson	0.335
257	Air Force	0.331
258	UNC Asheville	0.331
259	South Alabama	0.331
260	Southern Illinois	0.330
261	LIU Brooklyn	0.329
262	Nevada	0.328
263	Florida International	0.328
264	VMI	0.326
265	Grand Canyon	0.325
266	Maryland-Eastern Shore	0.325
267	South Florida	0.321
268	Marshall	0.321
269	Charleston	0.319
270	Hampton	0.318
271	Arkansas State	0.318
272	North Texas	0.317
273	UTSA	0.316
274	Howard	0.315
275	CSU Bakersfield	0.315
276	Southern	0.313
277	Lamar	0.312
278	Elon	0.311
279	Tennessee Tech	0.311
280	Northern Colorado	0.305
281	Drake	0.303
282	Houston Baptist	0.302
283	Florida Atlantic	0.298
284	Southeast Missouri State	0.298
285	Jackson State	0.294
286	Portland State	0.289
287	IUPUI	0.284
288	Wagner	0.284
289	Western Illinois	0.284
290	Alabama State	0.283
291	Campbell	0.282
292	UMKC	0.281
293	Alabama A&M	0.277
294	Lipscomb	0.277
295	Niagara	0.277
296	CS Northridge	0.271
297	Longwood	0.270
298	Southern Utah	0.268
299	Seattle	0.268
300	North Carolina A&T	0.267
301	New Orleans	0.266
302	Hartford	0.264
303	Samford	0.264
304	Loyola Marymount	0.264
305	Troy	0.263
306	McNeese State	0.259
307	SIU-Edwardsville	0.259
308	Delaware State	0.259
309	Bradley	0.258
310	UIC	0.256
311	Marist	0.252
312	Jacksonville	0.252
313	South Carolina State	0.245
314	Austin Peay	0.241
315	Binghamton	0.239
316	Fairlegh Dickinson	0.236
317	UMass Lowell	0.230
318	Prairie View A&M	0.228
319	Youngstown State	0.226
320	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	0.219
321	Maine	0.217
322	Southern Miss	0.216
323	Utah Valley	0.216
324	Southeastern Louisiana	0.214
325	Morgan State	0.213
326	Cal State Fullerton	0.210
327	Presbyterian	0.210
328	Jacksonville State	0.208
329	Nicholls State	0.202
330	Abilene Christian	0.201
331	North Dakota	0.199
332	Montana State	0.197
333	Stetson	0.196
334	Central Arkansas	0.192
335	Alcorn State	0.191
336	Tennessee State	0.191
337	UMBC	0.190
338	Kennesaw State	0.182
339	The Citadel	0.176
340	Central Connecticut	0.169
341	Idaho State	0.158
342	UT-Rio Grande Valley	0.156
343	Savannah State	0.153
344	San Jose State	0.150
345	Bethune-Cookman	0.150
346	Coppin State	0.143
347	Chicago State	0.136
348	Mississippi Valley State	0.129
349	Grambling State	0.119
350	Liberty	0.108
351	Florida A&M	0.091