Friday, November 13, 2015

Preseason NCAAB Ratings

College basketball is BACK! And this year I've tried to do what I do for college football, where I adjust my end-of-season Composite ratings by metrics such as player turnover and recruiting classes. As KenPom has illustrated, the upcoming season is best projected by the past few seasons for a given program. As he describes it, "In the most general sense, the main ingredient in the system is inertia. If a team has been good in the recent past, it’s likely to be rated well in the preseason."

With that in mind, I actually don't take into account recruiting for college basketball; instead, my main adjustment is based on the percentage of returning possession-minutes (that link is to an ESPN Insider article, so here's a quick rundown as described in the article): "Basically it's the percentage of minutes that a player is on the floor, multiplied by the percentage of possessions he used last season (as seen at KenPom.com)."

This ultimately gives a weighted representation of how much experience is returning from last year's team for each school, which I then use to adjust my Composite ratings. Here are my projected Top 25:

1Virginia0.915
2Kansas0.882
3Villanova0.879
4North Carolina0.877
5Gonzaga0.868
6Utah0.850
7Wisconsin0.847
8Baylor0.844
9Iowa State0.842
10Wichita State0.838
11Cincinnati0.833
12Arizona0.833
13Oklahoma0.830
14Kentucky0.828
15VCU0.825
16SMU0.824
17Duke0.814
18Texas0.800
19Michigan State0.798
20Notre Dame0.797
21Davidson0.785
22Northern Iowa0.784
23Tulsa0.780
24Xavier0.774
25Indiana0.773

Again, recruiting is not considered, which is why Kentucky and Duke are so low (at least those 2 schools jump out at me). The following rankings follow:

1Virginia0.915
2Kansas0.882
3Villanova0.879
4North Carolina0.877
5Gonzaga0.868
6Utah0.850
7Wisconsin0.847
8Baylor0.844
9Iowa State0.842
10Wichita State0.838
11Cincinnati0.833
12Arizona0.833
13Oklahoma0.830
14Kentucky0.828
15VCU0.825
16SMU0.824
17Duke0.814
18Texas0.800
19Michigan State0.798
20Notre Dame0.797
21Davidson0.785
22Northern Iowa0.784
23Tulsa0.780
24Xavier0.774
25Indiana0.773
26San Diego State0.773
27Iowa0.770
28Maryland0.770
29West Virginia0.769
30Valparaiso0.759
31Stephen F. Austin0.757
32Old Dominion0.751
33Purdue0.751
34Georgetown0.748
35Butler0.746
36Louisville0.746
37Ohio State0.742
38Providence0.741
39Miami (FL)0.740
40Georgia0.736
41NC State0.736
42Central Michigan0.729
43Arkansas0.729
44Dayton0.728
45Syracuse0.727
46Vanderbilt0.724
47Oregon0.724
48Michigan0.718
49BYU0.716
50Richmond0.714
51Pittsburgh0.714
52LSU0.712
53Florida0.712
54UConn0.710
55Texas A&M0.707
56Boise State0.700
57Temple0.699
58Oklahoma State0.697
59South Carolina0.692
60Rhode Island0.692
61UCLA0.691
62Illinois0.690
63Colorado State0.689
64Ole Miss0.688
65Illinois State0.679
66Memphis0.676
67Buffalo0.674
68Iona0.673
69Stanford0.671
70Minnesota0.666
71Sam Houston State0.664
72Arizona State0.658
73New Mexico State0.657
74Yale0.653
75Akron0.652
76Clemson0.650
77Georgia State0.646
78Louisiana Tech0.644
79UC Santa Barbara0.642
80Alabama0.641
81Toledo0.634
82Evansville0.628
83Tennessee0.628
84Green Bay0.624
85George Washington0.624
86TCU0.624
87St. John's0.623
88Harvard0.621
89William & Mary0.619
90Colorado0.617
91UAB0.616
92Florida State0.615
93Hawaii0.615
94Murray State0.614
95Northwestern0.613
96Seton Hall0.612
97UTEP0.611
98South Dakota State0.610
99Hofstra0.609
100Pepperdine0.609
101Northeastern0.609
102Louisiana Lafayette0.605
103Oregon State0.604
104Georgia Tech0.602
105UC Irvine0.602
106La Salle0.601
107Wofford0.600
108Saint Mary's0.597
109California0.593
110Columbia0.585
111Kansas State0.579
112Penn State0.578
113Wake Forest0.578
114Utah State0.568
115Bowling Green0.560
116Marquette0.559
117Stony Brook0.557
118High Point0.555
119Princeton0.554
120UMass0.551
121Loyola (CHI)0.550
122UC Davis0.548
123Chattanooga0.547
124Creighton0.545
125USC0.545
126Middle Tennessee0.544
127Kent State0.542
128Lehigh0.541
129Belmont0.541
130St Bonaventure0.540
131Rider0.536
132Vermont0.535
133San Diego0.529
134James Madison0.526
135Texas Tech0.526
136Coastal Carolina0.525
137Boston University0.523
138Western Michigan0.522
139UNLV0.521
140Eastern Michigan0.516
141Saint Joseph's0.511
142Bucknell0.510
143Montana0.509
144Wyoming0.507
145Louisiana Monroe0.505
146Eastern Washington0.501
147Saint Peter's0.500
148Canisius0.497
149Albany0.497
150North Dakota State0.496
151Lafayette0.496
152DePaul0.492
153Auburn0.491
154Nebraska0.488
155Portland0.486
156Mississippi State0.485
157Western Kentucky0.484
158NJIT0.481
159Washington0.479
160Monmouth0.478
161Cal Poly0.477
162Cleveland State0.475
163San Francisco0.473
164Oakland0.472
165Manhattan0.469
166Northwestern State0.461
167American0.460
168Dartmouth0.459
169Omaha0.458
170New Mexico0.457
171St. Francis (BKN)0.457
172North Carolina Central0.456
173Northern Illinois0.453
174Houston0.451
175Boston College0.447
176Long Beach State0.446
177Indiana State0.441
178Duquesne0.441
179Florida Gulf Coast0.433
180New Hampshire0.433
181Miami (OH)0.432
182Army0.432
183Fresno State0.432
184Detroit0.431
185North Florida0.430
186Eastern Kentucky0.430
187Georgia Southern0.430
188Washington State0.426
189Quinnipiac0.426
190Holy Cross0.425
191Winthrop0.424
192Morehead State0.422
193Robert Morris0.422
194Rice0.421
195George Mason0.420
196Norfolk State0.420
197Fordham0.419
198Charlotte0.418
199Virginia Tech0.418
200Radford0.412
201Mercer0.411
202Gardner-Webb0.411
203UNC Wilmington0.411
204Incarnate Word0.408
205Denver0.408
206Rutgers0.407
207Bryant0.406
208East Carolina0.403
209Northern Arizona0.402
210Mount St. Mary's0.401
211Idaho0.399
212Brown0.394
213Milwaukee0.394
214East Tennessee State0.393
215Texas A&M-CC0.393
216Texas State0.393
217St. Francis (PA)0.390
218Colgate0.389
219Northern Kentucky0.387
220Saint Louis0.387
221Siena0.385
222UT-Arlington0.385
223Cornell0.384
224USC Upstate0.383
225Santa Clara0.382
226Tulane0.382
227Sacramento State0.382
228Tennessee-Martin0.374
229Western Carolina0.374
230Ball State0.373
231Drexel0.373
232Delaware0.372
233Eastern Illinois0.370
234Pacific0.369
235UC Riverside0.368
236Missouri State0.367
237Missouri0.366
238Sacred Heart0.364
239Ohio0.363
240Weber State0.363
241Oral Roberts0.362
242Furman0.362
243IPFW0.362
244Fairfield0.357
245Loyola (MD)0.356
246South Dakota0.355
247UCF0.352
248Navy0.351
249UNC Greensboro0.348
250Charleston Southern0.346
251Arkansas-Little Rock0.344
252Appalachian State0.344
253Wright State0.341
254Penn0.338
255Texas Southern0.336
256Towson0.335
257Air Force0.331
258UNC Asheville0.331
259South Alabama0.331
260Southern Illinois0.330
261LIU Brooklyn0.329
262Nevada0.328
263Florida International0.328
264VMI0.326
265Grand Canyon0.325
266Maryland-Eastern Shore0.325
267South Florida0.321
268Marshall0.321
269Charleston0.319
270Hampton0.318
271Arkansas State0.318
272North Texas0.317
273UTSA0.316
274Howard0.315
275CSU Bakersfield0.315
276Southern0.313
277Lamar0.312
278Elon0.311
279Tennessee Tech0.311
280Northern Colorado0.305
281Drake0.303
282Houston Baptist0.302
283Florida Atlantic0.298
284Southeast Missouri State0.298
285Jackson State0.294
286Portland State0.289
287IUPUI0.284
288Wagner0.284
289Western Illinois0.284
290Alabama State0.283
291Campbell0.282
292UMKC0.281
293Alabama A&M0.277
294Lipscomb0.277
295Niagara0.277
296CS Northridge0.271
297Longwood0.270
298Southern Utah0.268
299Seattle0.268
300North Carolina A&T0.267
301New Orleans0.266
302Hartford0.264
303Samford0.264
304Loyola Marymount0.264
305Troy0.263
306McNeese State0.259
307SIU-Edwardsville0.259
308Delaware State0.259
309Bradley0.258
310UIC0.256
311Marist0.252
312Jacksonville0.252
313South Carolina State0.245
314Austin Peay0.241
315Binghamton0.239
316Fairlegh Dickinson0.236
317UMass Lowell0.230
318Prairie View A&M0.228
319Youngstown State0.226
320Arkansas-Pine Bluff0.219
321Maine0.217
322Southern Miss0.216
323Utah Valley0.216
324Southeastern Louisiana0.214
325Morgan State0.213
326Cal State Fullerton0.210
327Presbyterian0.210
328Jacksonville State0.208
329Nicholls State0.202
330Abilene Christian0.201
331North Dakota0.199
332Montana State0.197
333Stetson0.196
334Central Arkansas0.192
335Alcorn State0.191
336Tennessee State0.191
337UMBC0.190
338Kennesaw State0.182
339The Citadel0.176
340Central Connecticut0.169
341Idaho State0.158
342UT-Rio Grande Valley0.156
343Savannah State0.153
344San Jose State0.150
345Bethune-Cookman0.150
346Coppin State0.143
347Chicago State0.136
348Mississippi Valley State0.129
349Grambling State0.119
350Liberty0.108
351Florida A&M0.091

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