College Football Playoff and Bowl Picks

The College Football Playoff and all 39 other bowls are now set (there were so many this year that some 5-7 teams made it), and with that I can use my Pyth ratings from the MDS Model to project the winners of each game. A couple of notes about this year's slate:

1. As mentioned above, three 5-7 teams will play in a bowl game this year: Nebraska, Minnesota, and San Jose State.
2. There is a 41st bowl for 2 FCS teams: the winners of the MEAC and SWAC will face off in the first bowl of the season in Atlanta. These 2 conferences voluntarily removed themselves from FCS playoff consideration in order to participate in this bowl.
3. With the 5-7 debacle, 2 MWC teams actually will end up playing each other in a bowl game: Nevada vs Colorado State. And the MWC commissioner is not happy about it.

But first, here are my probabilities for each team in the playoff:

Seed	Team	Final	Champion
1	Clemson	36.76%	14.38%
4	Oklahoma	63.24%	32.92%
2	Alabama	69.10%	40.59%
3	Michigan State	30.90%	12.12%

Alabama is the #1 team in the country in my model, and we look headed for a rematch of the 2014 Sugar Bowl in the NCG: Alabama vs Oklahoma. And 2/5ths of the time, Tricky Nicky will take home yet another title for Alabama.

Before we take a look at the rest of the bowls, let's look back at my "8 Completely Arbitrary 2015 NCAAF Bold Predictions". I definitely went chalk (not bold) with pretty much every single one, so we should see a high percentage of correct "predictions".

1. North Carolina will be this year's fraud ACC team

Check! 1/1

2. Georgia will win the SEC

Not even close. 1/2

3. Alabama will miss the CFP

As I just illustrated above, they'll likely win the damn thing. 1/3

4. Al Golden will be fired after Miami goes 6-6 again

Well, I got this half-way correct about half-way through the season. Golden got fired, but Miami went 8-4. 1.5/4

5. The ACC will be the conference left out of the CFP

Try #1 overall seed. 1.5/5

6. Tennessee will beat Florida

This definitely should've happened, but of course, it didn't. 1.5/6

7. Ezekiel Elliot will win the Heisman Trophy

Not likely. 1.5/7

8. Ohio St will repeat as National Champions

Literally can not happen. 1.5/8

Well, that should entirely have been expected. 1.5/8 for a phenomenal percent correct of 19%-ish.

Now for the rest of the bowl picks, which are backed by math and statistical reasoning, and not just me pontificating (only FBS included):

Team A	Team B	Log5	P Line	PICK SU
New Mexico	Arizona	38.93%	3.79	Arizona
Utah	Brigham Young	55.46%	-1.85	Utah
Appalachian State	Ohio	74.69%	-8.97	Appalachian State
Georgia State	San Jose State	57.43%	-2.53	Georgia State
Louisiana Tech	Arkansas State	54.73%	-1.60	Louisiana Tech
South Florida	Western Kentucky	43.01%	2.38	Western Kentucky
Utah State	Akron	75.32%	-9.24	Utah State
Temple	Toledo	52.53%	-0.86	Temple
Northern Illinois	Boise State	33.98%	5.57	Boise State
Bowling Green	Georgia Southern	70.40%	-7.23	Bowling Green
Western Michigan	Middle Tennessee	61.64%	-4.00	Western Michigan
Cincinnati	San Diego State	44.69%	1.80	San Diego State
Marshall	Connecticut	73.47%	-8.47	Marshall
Washington State	Miami (FL)	59.42%	-3.22	Washington State
Southern Miss	Washington	37.72%	4.22	Washington
Duke	Indiana	50.46%	-0.16	Duke
Virginia Tech	Tulsa	57.78%	-2.65	Virginia Tech
Nebraska	UCLA	47.81%	0.74	UCLA
Navy	Pittsburgh	69.64%	-6.94	Navy
Minnesota	Central Michigan	48.23%	0.60	Central Michigan
Air Force	California	47.69%	0.78	California
Baylor	North Carolina	48.50%	0.51	North Carolina
Colorado State	Nevada	47.69%	0.78	Nevada
Texas Tech	LSU	37.88%	4.17	LSU
Memphis	Auburn	72.72%	-8.16	Memphis
Mississippi State	North Carolina State	54.38%	-1.48	Mississippi State
Louisville	Texas A&M	51.70%	-0.57	Louisville
Wisconsin	USC	42.24%	2.64	USC
Florida State	Houston	56.43%	-2.19	Florida State
Clemson	Oklahoma	36.76%	4.57	Oklahoma
Alabama	Michigan State	69.10%	-6.73	Alabama
Tennessee	Northwestern	71.14%	-7.53	Tennessee
Florida	Michigan	38.68%	3.88	Michigan
Ohio State	Notre Dame	65.21%	-5.28	Ohio State
Iowa	Stanford	39.97%	3.43	Stanford
Ole Miss	Oklahoma State	64.73%	-5.10	Ole Miss
Georgia	Penn State	46.64%	1.14	Penn State
Arkansas	Kansas State	70.44%	-7.25	Arkansas
TCU	Oregon	61.63%	-3.99	TCU
Arizona State	West Virginia	41.18%	3.01	Arizona State
Alabama	Oklahoma	54.00%	-1.36	Alabama