Monday, March 28, 2016

Final Four per the MDS Model

Villanova is still the best team in my ratings, and is my favorite to win it all. I've yet to accurately pick the champion though going into the Final Four: missing on Kentucky last year and Florida in 2014. And roughly a 2 in 5 shot for Carolina, and I'll be there, in Houston? 

SeedTeamChampionshipChampion
2Villanova67.31%42.50%
2Oklahoma32.69%15.18%
1North Carolina78.42%37.80%
10Syracuse21.58%4.52%

I'll take it.

Monday, March 21, 2016

Sweet 16 per the MDS Model

The first weekend of the tournament is over, and we're on to the Sweet 16. Thanks to the carnage on the right side of the bracket, we have a new predicted champion: Virginia.


Villanova is still the best team in my ratings, but is no longer the most likely winner due to the fact that Kansas is still alive. Meanwhile, Virginia greatly benefits from the lack of Michigan State or Utah in their region, along with seeds 2-4 in the East bowing out.

Monday, March 14, 2016

NCAA Tournament 2016 Bracket Math for the MDS Model

As always, here are the picks by the MDS Model for this year's NCAA tournament, as well as the win probabilities (using Log5). 



Tuesday, March 8, 2016

Big 5 Conference Tournaments (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, Pac-12)

Included are the MDS Model picks for the ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, and Pac-12 tournaments (sorry SEC). I used KenPom's conference rankings to determine the Top 5 conferences this year, and SEC was the odd man out. Also included are the round-by-round probabilities for each team. For the purposes of coding each conference, there are 16 teams listed, and simply empty slots for the non-existent teams.

ACC


SeedTeam2nd RoundQuartersSemisFinalChampion
1North Carolina100.00%100.00%71.68%44.99%22.28%
8Pittsburgh100.00%57.29%17.67%7.79%2.44%
9Syracuse100.00%42.71%10.65%3.99%1.03%
16None0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
4Notre Dame100.00%100.00%34.41%11.52%3.25%
5Duke100.00%85.36%58.95%30.68%13.98%
12North Carolina State67.82%11.73%3.73%0.73%0.12%
13Wake Forest32.18%2.91%2.91%0.30%0.03%
2Virginia100.00%100.00%85.70%58.17%37.29%
7Clemson100.00%46.77%6.30%1.74%0.40%
10Georgia Tech100.00%53.23%8.00%2.40%0.61%
15Louisville0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
3Miami (FL)100.00%100.00%79.78%34.38%17.86%
6Virginia Tech100.00%43.95%6.75%0.94%0.16%
11Florida State89.82%54.54%11.95%2.32%0.56%
14Boston College10.18%1.52%1.52%0.05%0.00%
Totals128421

Note: Louisville is banned from postseason play (and thus set to 0)

Big 10


SeedTeam2nd RoundQuartersSemisFinalChampion
1Indiana100.00%100.00%74.41%36.30%15.55%
8Michigan100.00%71.52%21.44%6.40%1.62%
9Northwestern100.00%28.48%4.15%0.64%0.08%
16None0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
4Purdue100.00%100.00%59.88%37.16%18.26%
5Iowa100.00%92.39%36.72%19.21%7.60%
12Illinois54.52%4.47%0.25%0.02%0.00%
13Minnesota0.45476156093.15%3.15%0.27%0.01%
2Michigan State100.00%100.00%90.15%65.94%43.04%
7Ohio State100.00%76.83%8.96%2.45%0.51%
10Penn State100.00%23.17%0.89%0.09%0.01%
15None0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
3Maryland100.00%100.00%64.32%22.36%10.09%
6Wisconsin100.00%79.59%32.20%8.80%3.17%
11Nebraska91.53%20.19%3.26%0.36%0.05%
14Rutgers8.47%0.22%0.22%0.00%0.00%
Totals128421

Big 12


SeedTeam2nd RoundQuartersSemisFinalChampion
1Kansas100.00%100.00%85.26%64.97%39.23%
8Kansas State100.00%69.39%12.13%4.91%1.25%
9Oklahoma State100.00%30.61%2.61%0.60%0.08%
16None0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
4Texas100.00%100.00%46.07%12.86%4.03%
5Baylor100.00%100.00%53.93%16.66%5.78%
12None0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
13None0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
2West Virginia100.00%100.00%83.49%53.01%29.79%
7Texas Tech100.00%81.34%15.55%4.59%1.17%
10TCU100.00%18.66%0.96%0.08%0.01%
15None0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
3Oklahoma100.00%100.00%61.90%28.75%13.68%
6Iowa State100.00%100.00%38.10%13.57%5.00%
11None0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
14None0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Totals108421

Big East


SeedTeam2nd RoundQuartersSemisFinalChampion
1Villanova100.00%100.00%89.45%76.38%57.74%
8Georgetown100.00%86.35%10.27%4.61%1.47%
9DePaul100.00%13.65%0.29%0.03%0.00%
16None00.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
4Providence100.00%100.00%34.86%4.80%1.34%
5Butler100.00%100.00%65.14%14.18%5.81%
12None0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
13None0%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
2Xavier100.00%100.00%90.38%65.91%26.26%
7Marquette100.00%73.22%8.41%2.22%0.22%
10St. John100.00%26.78%1.21%0.14%0.01%
15None0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
3Seton Hall100.00%100.00%62.51%22.10%5.47%
6Creighton100.00%100.00%37.49%9.62%1.68%
11None0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
14None0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Totals108421

Pac-12


SeedTeam2nd RoundQuartersSemisFinalChampion
1Oregon100.00%100.00%79.27%47.13%28.32%
8Washington100.00%58.44%13.45%4.26%1.35%
9Stanford100.00%41.56%7.29%1.83%0.46%
16None0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
4Arizona100.00%100.00%74.96%39.11%21.99%
5Colorado100.00%82.67%23.69%7.54%2.61%
12Washington State100.00%17.33%1.35%0.13%0.01%
13None0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
2Utah100.00%100.00%68.17%37.62%18.31%
7USC100.00%55.96%19.09%7.58%2.54%
10UCLA100.00%44.04%12.75%4.39%1.25%
15None0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
3California100.00%100.00%74.18%42.04%20.87%
6Oregon State100.00%59.29%17.01%5.97%1.74%
11Arizona State100.00%40.71%8.81%2.41%0.54%
14None0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Totals128421