NCAA Tournament 2016 Bracket Math for the MDS Model

As always, here are the picks by the MDS Model for this year's NCAA tournament, as well as the win probabilities (using Log5). 

Round-by-round probabilities:

Seed	Team	1st Round	2nd Round	Sweet 16	Elite 8	Final Four	Championship	Champion
	West
1	Oregon	100.00%	98.39%	65.20%	40.63%	24.58%	11.36%	5.18%
16*	Holy Cross	30.32%	0.26%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
16*	Southern University	69.68%	1.35%	0.05%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
8	Saint Joseph	100.00%	45.03%	14.56%	6.37%	2.65%	0.76%	0.21%
9	Cincinnati	100.00%	54.97%	20.18%	9.78%	4.53%	1.49%	0.48%
5	Baylor	100.00%	64.81%	30.08%	12.26%	5.59%	1.81%	0.57%
12	Yale	100.00%	35.19%	11.64%	3.20%	1.01%	0.21%	0.04%
4	Duke	100.00%	83.02%	53.56%	26.93%	14.88%	6.11%	2.46%
13	North Carolina-Wilmington	100.00%	16.98%	4.71%	0.83%	0.17%	0.02%	0.00%
6	Texas	100.00%	70.36%	27.90%	10.10%	3.45%	0.88%	0.22%
11	Northern Iowa	100.00%	29.64%	6.83%	1.35%	0.25%	0.03%	0.00%
3	Texas A&M	100.00%	93.88%	64.45%	31.80%	15.01%	5.53%	1.99%
14	Green Bay	100.00%	6.12%	0.83%	0.05%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
7	Oregon State	100.00%	30.28%	8.45%	2.94%	0.79%	0.15%	0.03%
10	Virginia Commonwealth	100.00%	69.72%	31.67%	17.19%	7.77%	2.72%	0.93%
2	Oklahoma	100.00%	93.11%	59.04%	36.47%	19.31%	8.15%	3.38%
15	Cal State Bakersfield	100.00%	6.89%	0.84%	0.10%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%
	South
1	Kansas	100.00%	98.36%	73.00%	52.56%	29.76%	19.86%	10.98%
16	Austin Peay	100.00%	1.64%	0.08%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
8	Colorado	100.00%	31.57%	5.61%	1.96%	0.43%	0.13%	0.03%
9	Connecticut	100.00%	68.43%	21.31%	11.30%	4.17%	1.95%	0.69%
5	Maryland	100.00%	77.22%	42.17%	15.21%	5.55%	2.57%	0.89%
12	South Dakota State	100.00%	22.78%	6.38%	0.96%	0.15%	0.03%	0.00%
4	California	100.00%	80.86%	46.49%	17.34%	6.54%	3.11%	1.12%
13	Hawaii	100.00%	19.14%	4.96%	0.65%	0.09%	0.02%	0.00%
6	Arizona	100.00%	53.24%	26.91%	9.68%	4.10%	2.01%	0.75%
11	Wichita State	100.00%	46.76%	22.23%	7.39%	2.91%	1.33%	0.46%
3	Miami (FL)	100.00%	88.02%	49.10%	19.51%	9.05%	4.81%	1.99%
14	Buffalo	100.00%	11.98%	1.76%	0.17%	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%
7	Iowa	100.00%	82.06%	24.07%	11.20%	4.46%	2.06%	0.72%
10	Temple	100.00%	17.94%	1.76%	0.29%	0.04%	0.01%	0.00%
2	Villanova	100.00%	95.70%	73.51%	51.69%	32.73%	22.89%	13.47%
15	UNC Asheville	100.00%	4.30%	0.67%	0.07%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%
	Midwest
1	Virginia	100.00%	99.08%	82.19%	53.20%	31.68%	19.09%	11.27%
16	Hampton	100.00%	0.92%	0.04%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
8	Texas Tech	100.00%	43.12%	6.72%	1.77%	0.41%	0.09%	0.02%
9	Butler	100.00%	56.88%	11.05%	3.49%	0.97%	0.26%	0.07%
5	Purdue	100.00%	88.00%	63.28%	30.82%	16.22%	8.58%	4.44%
12	Arkansas-Little Rock	100.00%	12.00%	3.42%	0.46%	0.07%	0.01%	0.00%
4	Iowa State	100.00%	81.10%	30.62%	9.96%	3.61%	1.28%	0.44%
13	Iona	100.00%	18.90%	2.68%	0.30%	0.04%	0.00%	0.00%
6	Seton Hall	100.00%	48.85%	23.13%	6.20%	1.68%	0.49%	0.14%
11	Gonzaga	100.00%	51.15%	24.76%	6.84%	1.91%	0.58%	0.17%
3	Utah	100.00%	84.64%	49.04%	16.36%	5.55%	2.04%	0.73%
14	Fresno State	100.00%	15.36%	3.07%	0.29%	0.03%	0.00%	0.00%
7	Dayton	100.00%	58.69%	15.43%	7.99%	2.50%	0.85%	0.28%
10	Syracuse	100.00%	41.31%	8.54%	3.69%	0.91%	0.24%	0.06%
2	Michigan State	100.00%	94.78%	75.11%	58.47%	34.42%	21.45%	13.10%
15	Middle Tennessee	100.00%	5.22%	0.92%	0.16%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%
	East
1	North Carolina	100.00%	97.62%	79.20%	46.66%	28.62%	14.57%	8.00%
16*	Florida Gulf Coast	74.22%	2.12%	0.24%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
16*	Fairleigh Dickinson	25.78%	0.26%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
8	USC	100.00%	60.37%	13.88%	4.04%	1.27%	0.29%	0.08%
9	Providence	100.00%	39.63%	6.67%	1.44%	0.34%	0.06%	0.01%
5	Indiana	100.00%	86.21%	38.46%	16.74%	8.07%	3.05%	1.27%
12	Chattanooga	100.00%	13.79%	1.85%	0.23%	0.03%	0.00%	0.00%
12	null	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
4	Kentucky	100.00%	87.33%	56.67%	30.37%	17.78%	8.53%	4.44%
13	Stony Brook	100.00%	12.67%	3.02%	0.50%	0.09%	0.01%	0.00%
6	Notre Dame	100.00%	55.83%	16.61%	6.17%	1.66%	0.40%	0.11%
11*	Michigan	59.86%	28.79%	8.16%	2.89%	0.73%	0.17%	0.04%
11*	Tulsa	40.14%	15.38%	3.33%	0.90%	0.17%	0.03%	0.01%
3	West Virginia	100.00%	85.48%	66.46%	42.94%	22.76%	11.09%	5.86%
14	Stephen F. Austin	100.00%	14.52%	5.44%	1.34%	0.23%	0.03%	0.01%
7	Wisconsin	100.00%	47.71%	16.98%	6.01%	1.70%	0.43%	0.12%
10	Pittsburgh	100.00%	52.29%	19.65%	7.33%	2.20%	0.59%	0.18%
2	Xavier	100.00%	94.55%	62.82%	32.37%	14.34%	5.78%	2.55%
15	Weber State	100.00%	5.45%	0.56%	0.04%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
	Totals	64.00	32.00	16.00	8.00	4.00	2.00	1.00

There is a lot more parity this year: the top 4 most likely winners win the title 39.75% of the time, whereas last year Kentucky ALONE had a 41.77% chance to win it all (the top 4 (Kentucky, Wisconsin, Virginia, Arizona) amounted to almost 75%). 

Take a look at this year's top 10 before the tournament:

Pyth
1	Villanova	0.957
2	Michigan State	0.955
3	Virginia	0.952
4	Kansas	0.951
5	Louisville	0.948
6	North Carolina	0.943
7	West Virginia	0.938
8	Kentucky	0.936
9	Purdue	0.935
10	Oregon	0.928

Compared to last year's:

Pyth
1	Kentucky	0.989
2	Wisconsin	0.978
3	Arizona	0.977
4	Virginia	0.977
5	Villanova	0.970
6	Duke	0.961
7	Gonzaga	0.959
8	Utah	0.958
9	North Carolina	0.945
10	Baylor	0.941

Last year there were 8 teams better ratings-wise than this year's #1 team.

Also, I checked. UNC's chances of winning it all are indeed calculated correctly; the totals at the bottom sum exactly as they should. That is 8% to 6 decimal places: 0.08000273131. 

You can't write this stuff.