Final Four per the MDS Model

Villanova is still the best team in my ratings, and is my favorite to win it all. I've yet to accurately pick the champion though going into the Final Four: missing on Kentucky last year and Florida in 2014. And roughly a 2 in 5 shot for Carolina, and I'll be there, in Houston? 

Seed	Team	Championship	Champion
2	Villanova	67.31%	42.50%
2	Oklahoma	32.69%	15.18%
1	North Carolina	78.42%	37.80%
10	Syracuse	21.58%	4.52%

I'll take it.

Sweet 16 per the MDS Model

The first weekend of the tournament is over, and we're on to the Sweet 16. Thanks to the carnage on the right side of the bracket, we have a new predicted champion: Virginia.

Villanova is still the best team in my ratings, but is no longer the most likely winner due to the fact that Kansas is still alive. Meanwhile, Virginia greatly benefits from the lack of Michigan State or Utah in their region, along with seeds 2-4 in the East bowing out.

NCAA Tournament 2016 Bracket Math for the MDS Model

As always, here are the picks by the MDS Model for this year's NCAA tournament, as well as the win probabilities (using Log5). 

Big 5 Conference Tournaments (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, Pac-12)

Included are the MDS Model picks for the ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, and Pac-12 tournaments (sorry SEC). I used KenPom's conference rankings to determine the Top 5 conferences this year, and SEC was the odd man out. Also included are the round-by-round probabilities for each team. For the purposes of coding each conference, there are 16 teams listed, and simply empty slots for the non-existent teams.

ACC

Seed	Team	2nd Round	Quarters	Semis	Final	Champion
1	North Carolina	100.00%	100.00%	71.68%	44.99%	22.28%
8	Pittsburgh	100.00%	57.29%	17.67%	7.79%	2.44%
9	Syracuse	100.00%	42.71%	10.65%	3.99%	1.03%
16	None	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
4	Notre Dame	100.00%	100.00%	34.41%	11.52%	3.25%
5	Duke	100.00%	85.36%	58.95%	30.68%	13.98%
12	North Carolina State	67.82%	11.73%	3.73%	0.73%	0.12%
13	Wake Forest	32.18%	2.91%	2.91%	0.30%	0.03%
2	Virginia	100.00%	100.00%	85.70%	58.17%	37.29%
7	Clemson	100.00%	46.77%	6.30%	1.74%	0.40%
10	Georgia Tech	100.00%	53.23%	8.00%	2.40%	0.61%
15	Louisville	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
3	Miami (FL)	100.00%	100.00%	79.78%	34.38%	17.86%
6	Virginia Tech	100.00%	43.95%	6.75%	0.94%	0.16%
11	Florida State	89.82%	54.54%	11.95%	2.32%	0.56%
14	Boston College	10.18%	1.52%	1.52%	0.05%	0.00%
	Totals	12	8	4	2	1

Note: Louisville is banned from postseason play (and thus set to 0)

Big 10

Seed	Team	2nd Round	Quarters	Semis	Final	Champion
1	Indiana	100.00%	100.00%	74.41%	36.30%	15.55%
8	Michigan	100.00%	71.52%	21.44%	6.40%	1.62%
9	Northwestern	100.00%	28.48%	4.15%	0.64%	0.08%
16	None	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
4	Purdue	100.00%	100.00%	59.88%	37.16%	18.26%
5	Iowa	100.00%	92.39%	36.72%	19.21%	7.60%
12	Illinois	54.52%	4.47%	0.25%	0.02%	0.00%
13	Minnesota	0.4547615609	3.15%	3.15%	0.27%	0.01%
2	Michigan State	100.00%	100.00%	90.15%	65.94%	43.04%
7	Ohio State	100.00%	76.83%	8.96%	2.45%	0.51%
10	Penn State	100.00%	23.17%	0.89%	0.09%	0.01%
15	None	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
3	Maryland	100.00%	100.00%	64.32%	22.36%	10.09%
6	Wisconsin	100.00%	79.59%	32.20%	8.80%	3.17%
11	Nebraska	91.53%	20.19%	3.26%	0.36%	0.05%
14	Rutgers	8.47%	0.22%	0.22%	0.00%	0.00%
	Totals	12	8	4	2	1

Big 12

Seed	Team	2nd Round	Quarters	Semis	Final	Champion
1	Kansas	100.00%	100.00%	85.26%	64.97%	39.23%
8	Kansas State	100.00%	69.39%	12.13%	4.91%	1.25%
9	Oklahoma State	100.00%	30.61%	2.61%	0.60%	0.08%
16	None	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
4	Texas	100.00%	100.00%	46.07%	12.86%	4.03%
5	Baylor	100.00%	100.00%	53.93%	16.66%	5.78%
12	None	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
13	None	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
2	West Virginia	100.00%	100.00%	83.49%	53.01%	29.79%
7	Texas Tech	100.00%	81.34%	15.55%	4.59%	1.17%
10	TCU	100.00%	18.66%	0.96%	0.08%	0.01%
15	None	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
3	Oklahoma	100.00%	100.00%	61.90%	28.75%	13.68%
6	Iowa State	100.00%	100.00%	38.10%	13.57%	5.00%
11	None	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
14	None	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
	Totals	10	8	4	2	1

Big East

Seed	Team	2nd Round	Quarters	Semis	Final	Champion
1	Villanova	100.00%	100.00%	89.45%	76.38%	57.74%
8	Georgetown	100.00%	86.35%	10.27%	4.61%	1.47%
9	DePaul	100.00%	13.65%	0.29%	0.03%	0.00%
16	None	0	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
4	Providence	100.00%	100.00%	34.86%	4.80%	1.34%
5	Butler	100.00%	100.00%	65.14%	14.18%	5.81%
12	None	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
13	None	0%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
2	Xavier	100.00%	100.00%	90.38%	65.91%	26.26%
7	Marquette	100.00%	73.22%	8.41%	2.22%	0.22%
10	St. John	100.00%	26.78%	1.21%	0.14%	0.01%
15	None	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
3	Seton Hall	100.00%	100.00%	62.51%	22.10%	5.47%
6	Creighton	100.00%	100.00%	37.49%	9.62%	1.68%
11	None	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
14	None	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
	Totals	10	8	4	2	1

Pac-12

Seed	Team	2nd Round	Quarters	Semis	Final	Champion
1	Oregon	100.00%	100.00%	79.27%	47.13%	28.32%
8	Washington	100.00%	58.44%	13.45%	4.26%	1.35%
9	Stanford	100.00%	41.56%	7.29%	1.83%	0.46%
16	None	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
4	Arizona	100.00%	100.00%	74.96%	39.11%	21.99%
5	Colorado	100.00%	82.67%	23.69%	7.54%	2.61%
12	Washington State	100.00%	17.33%	1.35%	0.13%	0.01%
13	None	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
2	Utah	100.00%	100.00%	68.17%	37.62%	18.31%
7	USC	100.00%	55.96%	19.09%	7.58%	2.54%
10	UCLA	100.00%	44.04%	12.75%	4.39%	1.25%
15	None	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
3	California	100.00%	100.00%	74.18%	42.04%	20.87%
6	Oregon State	100.00%	59.29%	17.01%	5.97%	1.74%
11	Arizona State	100.00%	40.71%	8.81%	2.41%	0.54%
14	None	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
	Totals	12	8	4	2	1