Preseason NCAAF Rankings for 2018

As I did last year, the year before, the year before, and the year before that, I've created a new set of preseason NCAAF rankings that take into account player turnover and recruiting classes. The following is literally copied and pasted from last year's write-up so you don't have to click that first link:

As before, I used my final Composite ratings from the MDS Model (from last season) as the base (which takes into account both a forward-looking predictive component and a past-performance only retrodictive component), and then factored in ESPN's Preseason FPI and the S&P+ projections, both of which take into account player changes on each team. Once the season starts, this "preseason" rating will be faded out as the season progresses, carrying less and less weight with each ensuing week.

In the below list, the "Trend" indicates whether the respective team's new ranking rose or fell relative to last year's preseason ratings. We gain Liberty (moving up to FBS) and lose Idaho (moving down to FCS), keeping the number of teams at 130.

What a surprise! Alabama is #1!

Rank	Team	PRESEASON	Trend
1	Alabama	0.910	DOWN
2	Ohio State	0.885	UP
3	Clemson	0.883	UP
4	Washington	0.826	UP
5	Oklahoma	0.823	DOWN
6	Georgia	0.805	UP
7	Notre Dame	0.803	UP
8	Auburn	0.796	UP
9	Michigan	0.779	UP
10	Penn State	0.777	UP
11	Wisconsin	0.758	UP
12	Florida State	0.748	DOWN
13	Michigan State	0.739	UP
14	USC	0.739	DOWN
15	Stanford	0.735	DOWN
16	Miami (FL)	0.729	UP
17	LSU	0.729	DOWN
18	Mississippi State	0.709	UP
19	Oklahoma State	0.692	DOWN
20	Florida	0.682	DOWN
21	Oregon	0.680	DOWN
22	Texas A&M	0.679	UP
23	TCU	0.678	DOWN
24	Texas	0.667	UP
25	Ole Miss	0.658	DOWN
26	Louisville	0.656	DOWN
27	Virginia Tech	0.654	UP
28	Iowa	0.635	UP
29	Utah	0.626	UP
30	Boise State	0.623	UP
31	UCLA	0.623	DOWN
32	North Carolina State	0.614	DOWN
33	Northwestern	0.611	UP
34	Baylor	0.608	DOWN
35	Missouri	0.603	UP
36	South Carolina	0.599	UP
37	North Carolina	0.598	DOWN
38	Arkansas	0.588	DOWN
39	Washington State	0.587	DOWN
40	West Virginia	0.586	DOWN
41	Arizona	0.582	UP
42	Tennessee	0.582	DOWN
43	Georgia Tech	0.582	UP
44	Duke	0.581	UP
45	Pittsburgh	0.573	DOWN
46	Memphis	0.573	DOWN
47	California	0.572	UP
48	Texas Tech	0.572	UP
49	Nebraska	0.557	DOWN
50	Wake Forest	0.555	UP
51	Kansas State	0.553	DOWN
52	Iowa State	0.547	UP
53	Arizona State	0.547	DOWN
54	Boston College	0.544	UP
55	San Diego State	0.541	DOWN
56	Houston	0.537	DOWN
57	UCF	0.537	UP
58	South Florida	0.535	DOWN
59	Toledo	0.519	DOWN
60	Indiana	0.518	DOWN
61	Minnesota	0.517	DOWN
62	Kentucky	0.516	UP
63	Syracuse	0.508	DOWN
64	Brigham Young	0.501	DOWN
65	Purdue	0.501	UP
66	Appalachian State	0.491	DOWN
67	Marshall	0.491	UP
68	Florida Atlantic	0.481	UP
69	Maryland	0.477	UP
70	Vanderbilt	0.471	DOWN
71	Temple	0.471	DOWN
72	Navy	0.470	DOWN
73	Virginia	0.463	UP
74	Utah State	0.461	UP
75	Northern Illinois	0.460	UP
76	Louisiana Tech	0.460	UP
77	Western Michigan	0.460	DOWN
78	Fresno State	0.456	UP
79	Arkansas State	0.451	UP
80	Colorado	0.449	DOWN
81	Ohio	0.440	UP
82	Cincinnati	0.432	DOWN
83	Rutgers	0.432	UP
84	Middle Tennessee	0.425	UP
85	Southern Methodist	0.418	UP
86	Western Kentucky	0.417	DOWN
87	Troy	0.415	UP
88	Wyoming	0.412	UP
89	Illinois	0.402	DOWN
90	Tulsa	0.402	DOWN
91	Miami (OH)	0.397	UP
92	Colorado State	0.396	DOWN
93	Southern Miss	0.392	DOWN
94	Bowling Green	0.383	DOWN
95	Oregon State	0.377	DOWN
96	Georgia Southern	0.371	DOWN
97	Tulane	0.366	UP
98	Air Force	0.365	DOWN
99	Nevada	0.362	UP
100	North Texas	0.357	UP
101	Army	0.351	UP
102	Buffalo	0.351	UP
103	Kansas	0.347	UP
104	Central Michigan	0.344	DOWN
105	Massachusetts	0.341	UP
106	UNLV	0.329	UP
107	Eastern Michigan	0.328	UP
108	New Mexico	0.317	DOWN
109	UTSA	0.315	UP
110	New Mexico State	0.305	UP
111	Old Dominion	0.303	DOWN
112	Louisiana-Monroe	0.303	UP
113	East Carolina	0.303	DOWN
114	Akron	0.300	DOWN
115	UAB	0.296	UP
116	Florida International	0.283	DOWN
117	Georgia State	0.281	DOWN
118	Ball State	0.280	DOWN
119	South Alabama	0.279	DOWN
120	Connecticut	0.272	DOWN
121	Liberty	0.258	UP
122	San Jose State	0.252	DOWN
123	Louisiana-Lafayette	0.244	DOWN
124	Hawaii	0.228	DOWN
125	Coastal Carolina	0.227	UP
126	Charlotte	0.216	UP
127	Rice	0.213	DOWN
128	Kent State	0.212	DOWN
129	Texas State	0.211	UP
130	UTEP	0.168	DOWN