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Saturday, July 22, 2017

Preseason NCAAF Rankings for 2017

As I did last year, the year before, and the year before that, I've created a new set of preseason NCAAF rankings that take into account player turnover and recruiting classes. The following is literally copied and pasted from last year's write-up so you don't have to click that first link:

As before, I used my final Composite ratings from the MDS Model (from last season) as the base (which takes into account both a forward-looking predictive component and a past-performance only retrodictive component), and then factored in ESPN's Preseason FPI and the S&P+ projections, both of which take into account player changes on each team. Once the season starts, this "preseason" rating will be faded out as the season progresses, carrying less and less weight with each ensuing week.

In the below list, the "Trend" indicates whether the respective team's new ranking rose or fell relative to the average of last year's end-of-season Composite ratings. We have two new team's this year: Coastal Carolina (moving up from FCS) and UAB (welcome back!). 


RankTeamPRESEASONTrend
1Alabama0.924UP
2Ohio State0.863UP
3Oklahoma0.854DOWN
4Florida State0.841UP
5Clemson0.840DOWN
6LSU0.800UP
7USC0.770UP
8Michigan0.767DOWN
9Stanford0.761UP
10Washington0.744UP
11Notre Dame0.731DOWN
12Florida0.728UP
13Tennessee0.721DOWN
14Wisconsin0.715UP
15Auburn0.713UP
16Penn State0.711UP
17Ole Miss0.703DOWN
18TCU0.702UP
19Georgia0.701UP
20Louisville0.695UP
21Oklahoma State0.694DOWN
22Oregon0.684UP
23UCLA0.676DOWN
24Texas A&M0.668UP
25Baylor0.664DOWN
26North Carolina0.663DOWN
27Miami (FL)0.658UP
28Mississippi State0.647DOWN
29Arkansas0.643DOWN
30Michigan State0.638DOWN
31Texas0.634UP
32North Carolina State0.630UP
33Iowa0.629DOWN
34Washington State0.620UP
35Pittsburgh0.617DOWN
36Northwestern0.604UP
37Houston0.603DOWN
38Virginia Tech0.603UP
39Brigham Young0.601DOWN
40Boise State0.600DOWN
41Utah0.600DOWN
42Nebraska0.588DOWN
43South Florida0.586DOWN
44West Virginia0.582DOWN
45Memphis0.571DOWN
46Georgia Tech0.566UP
47Kansas State0.562UP
48San Diego State0.562DOWN
49Western Kentucky0.561DOWN
50Appalachian State0.556DOWN
51Toledo0.554DOWN
52California0.553DOWN
53Texas Tech0.553DOWN
54Arizona State0.553DOWN
55Navy0.542DOWN
56South Carolina0.541UP
57Temple0.528DOWN
58Arizona0.527DOWN
59Duke0.527UP
60Missouri0.526UP
61Minnesota0.525DOWN
62Indiana0.525UP
63Syracuse0.516UP
64Kentucky0.508UP
65Western Michigan0.506DOWN
66Vanderbilt0.504UP
67Colorado0.503UP
68Cincinnati0.484DOWN
69Iowa State0.476UP
70Wake Forest0.471UP
71Virginia0.462UP
72Colorado State0.461UP
73Tulsa0.460UP
74Southern Miss0.457DOWN
75Bowling Green0.456DOWN
76Boston College0.454UP
77Maryland0.454UP
78Oregon State0.451UP
79Utah State0.450DOWN
80Marshall0.448DOWN
81Arkansas State0.447DOWN
82Louisiana Tech0.447DOWN
83Central Michigan0.435DOWN
84Northern Illinois0.433DOWN
85Air Force0.426DOWN
86Illinois0.425DOWN
87Georgia Southern0.421DOWN
88Middle Tennessee0.417DOWN
89Troy0.405UP
90East Carolina0.402DOWN
91Ohio0.392DOWN
92Rutgers0.391DOWN
93Purdue0.390DOWN
94Southern Methodist0.384UP
95UCF0.365UP
96New Mexico0.365DOWN
97San Jose State0.358DOWN
98Nevada0.355DOWN
99Wyoming0.353UP
100Connecticut0.344DOWN
101Florida Atlantic0.343DOWN
102Ball State0.335UP
103Georgia State0.334DOWN
104Old Dominion0.332UP
105Miami (OH)0.332UP
106Akron0.328DOWN
107UTSA0.315UP
108Army0.311UP
109Louisiana-Lafayette0.311UP
110Tulane0.310UP
111Fresno State0.303UP
112Florida International0.300DOWN
113UNLV0.297UP
114South Alabama0.297UP
115Massachusetts0.293UP
116Eastern Michigan0.289UP
117Idaho0.286DOWN
118Kansas0.285UP
119Buffalo0.282DOWN
120Kent State0.275DOWN
121Hawaii0.270UP
122Rice0.270DOWN
123New Mexico State0.265UP
124North Texas0.244UP
125UTEP0.234DOWN
126Louisiana-Monroe0.230UP
127Texas State0.205DOWN
128Coastal Carolina0.196UP
129Charlotte0.193UP
130UAB0.130UP

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