As before, I used my final Composite ratings from the MDS Model (from last season) as the base (which takes into account both a forward-looking predictive component and a past-performance only retrodictive component), and then factored in ESPN's Preseason FPI and the S&P+ projections, both of which take into account player changes on each team. Once the season starts, this "preseason" rating will be faded out as the season progresses, carrying less and less weight with each ensuing week.
In the below list, the "Trend" indicates whether the respective team's new ranking rose or fell relative to the average of last year's end-of-season Composite ratings. We have two new team's this year: Coastal Carolina (moving up from FCS) and UAB (welcome back!).
Rank | Team | PRESEASON | Trend |
1 | Alabama | 0.924 | UP |
2 | Ohio State | 0.863 | UP |
3 | Oklahoma | 0.854 | DOWN |
4 | Florida State | 0.841 | UP |
5 | Clemson | 0.840 | DOWN |
6 | LSU | 0.800 | UP |
7 | USC | 0.770 | UP |
8 | Michigan | 0.767 | DOWN |
9 | Stanford | 0.761 | UP |
10 | Washington | 0.744 | UP |
11 | Notre Dame | 0.731 | DOWN |
12 | Florida | 0.728 | UP |
13 | Tennessee | 0.721 | DOWN |
14 | Wisconsin | 0.715 | UP |
15 | Auburn | 0.713 | UP |
16 | Penn State | 0.711 | UP |
17 | Ole Miss | 0.703 | DOWN |
18 | TCU | 0.702 | UP |
19 | Georgia | 0.701 | UP |
20 | Louisville | 0.695 | UP |
21 | Oklahoma State | 0.694 | DOWN |
22 | Oregon | 0.684 | UP |
23 | UCLA | 0.676 | DOWN |
24 | Texas A&M | 0.668 | UP |
25 | Baylor | 0.664 | DOWN |
26 | North Carolina | 0.663 | DOWN |
27 | Miami (FL) | 0.658 | UP |
28 | Mississippi State | 0.647 | DOWN |
29 | Arkansas | 0.643 | DOWN |
30 | Michigan State | 0.638 | DOWN |
31 | Texas | 0.634 | UP |
32 | North Carolina State | 0.630 | UP |
33 | Iowa | 0.629 | DOWN |
34 | Washington State | 0.620 | UP |
35 | Pittsburgh | 0.617 | DOWN |
36 | Northwestern | 0.604 | UP |
37 | Houston | 0.603 | DOWN |
38 | Virginia Tech | 0.603 | UP |
39 | Brigham Young | 0.601 | DOWN |
40 | Boise State | 0.600 | DOWN |
41 | Utah | 0.600 | DOWN |
42 | Nebraska | 0.588 | DOWN |
43 | South Florida | 0.586 | DOWN |
44 | West Virginia | 0.582 | DOWN |
45 | Memphis | 0.571 | DOWN |
46 | Georgia Tech | 0.566 | UP |
47 | Kansas State | 0.562 | UP |
48 | San Diego State | 0.562 | DOWN |
49 | Western Kentucky | 0.561 | DOWN |
50 | Appalachian State | 0.556 | DOWN |
51 | Toledo | 0.554 | DOWN |
52 | California | 0.553 | DOWN |
53 | Texas Tech | 0.553 | DOWN |
54 | Arizona State | 0.553 | DOWN |
55 | Navy | 0.542 | DOWN |
56 | South Carolina | 0.541 | UP |
57 | Temple | 0.528 | DOWN |
58 | Arizona | 0.527 | DOWN |
59 | Duke | 0.527 | UP |
60 | Missouri | 0.526 | UP |
61 | Minnesota | 0.525 | DOWN |
62 | Indiana | 0.525 | UP |
63 | Syracuse | 0.516 | UP |
64 | Kentucky | 0.508 | UP |
65 | Western Michigan | 0.506 | DOWN |
66 | Vanderbilt | 0.504 | UP |
67 | Colorado | 0.503 | UP |
68 | Cincinnati | 0.484 | DOWN |
69 | Iowa State | 0.476 | UP |
70 | Wake Forest | 0.471 | UP |
71 | Virginia | 0.462 | UP |
72 | Colorado State | 0.461 | UP |
73 | Tulsa | 0.460 | UP |
74 | Southern Miss | 0.457 | DOWN |
75 | Bowling Green | 0.456 | DOWN |
76 | Boston College | 0.454 | UP |
77 | Maryland | 0.454 | UP |
78 | Oregon State | 0.451 | UP |
79 | Utah State | 0.450 | DOWN |
80 | Marshall | 0.448 | DOWN |
81 | Arkansas State | 0.447 | DOWN |
82 | Louisiana Tech | 0.447 | DOWN |
83 | Central Michigan | 0.435 | DOWN |
84 | Northern Illinois | 0.433 | DOWN |
85 | Air Force | 0.426 | DOWN |
86 | Illinois | 0.425 | DOWN |
87 | Georgia Southern | 0.421 | DOWN |
88 | Middle Tennessee | 0.417 | DOWN |
89 | Troy | 0.405 | UP |
90 | East Carolina | 0.402 | DOWN |
91 | Ohio | 0.392 | DOWN |
92 | Rutgers | 0.391 | DOWN |
93 | Purdue | 0.390 | DOWN |
94 | Southern Methodist | 0.384 | UP |
95 | UCF | 0.365 | UP |
96 | New Mexico | 0.365 | DOWN |
97 | San Jose State | 0.358 | DOWN |
98 | Nevada | 0.355 | DOWN |
99 | Wyoming | 0.353 | UP |
100 | Connecticut | 0.344 | DOWN |
101 | Florida Atlantic | 0.343 | DOWN |
102 | Ball State | 0.335 | UP |
103 | Georgia State | 0.334 | DOWN |
104 | Old Dominion | 0.332 | UP |
105 | Miami (OH) | 0.332 | UP |
106 | Akron | 0.328 | DOWN |
107 | UTSA | 0.315 | UP |
108 | Army | 0.311 | UP |
109 | Louisiana-Lafayette | 0.311 | UP |
110 | Tulane | 0.310 | UP |
111 | Fresno State | 0.303 | UP |
112 | Florida International | 0.300 | DOWN |
113 | UNLV | 0.297 | UP |
114 | South Alabama | 0.297 | UP |
115 | Massachusetts | 0.293 | UP |
116 | Eastern Michigan | 0.289 | UP |
117 | Idaho | 0.286 | DOWN |
118 | Kansas | 0.285 | UP |
119 | Buffalo | 0.282 | DOWN |
120 | Kent State | 0.275 | DOWN |
121 | Hawaii | 0.270 | UP |
122 | Rice | 0.270 | DOWN |
123 | New Mexico State | 0.265 | UP |
124 | North Texas | 0.244 | UP |
125 | UTEP | 0.234 | DOWN |
126 | Louisiana-Monroe | 0.230 | UP |
127 | Texas State | 0.205 | DOWN |
128 | Coastal Carolina | 0.196 | UP |
129 | Charlotte | 0.193 | UP |
130 | UAB | 0.130 | UP |
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