Sunday, March 13, 2022

NCAA Tournament 2022 Bracket Math for the MDS Model

It has been 8 years since I put out my first NCAA tournament bracket math, and this year's version is more in line with 2014 (and 2019) since last season had a strange retrodictive component due to the unbalanced nature of COVID-impacted schedules.

I've done away with that, and am back to just a composite of 4 different predictive models, similar to what FiveThirtyEight does:

  • FiveThirtyEight (so I'm including a composite of a composite)
  • KenPom (who's ratings are also included in FiveThirtyEight, so they're counted twice)
  • Powerrank (created and maintained by Ed Feng)
  • Jeff Sagarin (ratings also used in FiveThirtyEight; his Predictor rating)

These are the same 4 as last year, since even though it didn't pick Baylor as the winner, the model was still good enough for certain workplace uses.

I then use a weighted average of these 4 ratings that reduces outliers by weighting the ratings closer to the median higher. This smooths out the final Aggregate ratings that I then use to project the tournament.

Note: For simplicity, I've taken the highest rated team in each play-in game and included them.

SeedTeam1st Round2nd RoundSweet 16Elite 8Final FourChampionshipChampion
West
1Gonzaga100.00%96.12%78.33%61.84%44.72%31.40%21.83%
16Georgia St.100.00%3.88%0.75%0.13%0.02%0.00%0.00%
8Boise St.100.00%43.43%8.01%3.48%1.23%0.40%0.13%
9Memphis100.00%56.57%12.91%6.43%2.67%1.04%0.40%
5UCONN100.00%72.04%39.64%12.22%5.55%2.38%1.00%
12New Mexico St.100.00%27.96%9.22%1.39%0.34%0.08%0.02%
4Arkansas100.00%69.69%39.79%12.58%5.83%2.55%1.10%
13Vermont100.00%30.31%11.36%1.94%0.54%0.14%0.03%
6Alabama100.00%60.81%25.34%11.33%3.62%1.44%0.56%
11*Notre Dame100.00%39.19%12.57%4.35%1.03%0.31%0.09%
3Texas Tech100.00%89.10%59.72%34.38%15.03%7.92%4.11%
14Montana St.100.00%10.90%2.37%0.38%0.04%0.00%0.00%
7Michigan St.100.00%53.81%19.35%7.52%2.07%0.71%0.24%
10Davidson100.00%46.19%15.11%5.35%1.32%0.41%0.12%
2Duke100.00%90.77%63.59%36.42%15.96%8.43%4.39%
15CS Fullerton100.00%9.23%1.96%0.27%0.02%0.00%0.00%
East
1Baylor100.00%92.54%64.56%37.33%20.26%9.30%4.89%
16Norfolk St.100.00%7.46%1.33%0.15%0.02%0.00%0.00%
8North Carolina100.00%54.58%19.60%7.84%2.86%1.07%0.32%
9Marquette100.00%45.42%14.52%5.20%1.68%0.43%0.13%
5Saint Mary's100.00%56.03%23.03%9.90%3.95%1.28%0.49%
12*Indiana100.00%43.97%15.70%5.86%2.01%0.55%0.18%
4UCLA100.00%87.83%58.46%33.23%17.89%8.13%4.24%
13Akron100.00%12.17%2.81%0.48%0.07%0.01%0.00%
6Texas100.00%56.54%26.71%11.86%5.36%1.93%0.81%
11Virginia Tech100.00%43.46%17.88%6.86%2.67%0.81%0.29%
3Purdue100.00%88.57%53.42%27.57%14.48%6.22%3.08%
14Yale100.00%11.43%1.99%0.27%0.04%0.00%0.00%
7Murray St.100.00%45.33%13.31%4.75%1.58%0.40%0.12%
10San Francisco100.00%54.67%18.14%7.26%2.73%0.80%0.28%
2Kentucky100.00%90.14%66.07%41.00%24.34%12.07%6.82%
15Saint Peter's100.00%9.86%2.49%0.42%0.07%0.01%0.00%
South
1Arizona100.00%93.84%70.40%44.36%27.60%16.66%8.66%
16*Wright St.100.00%6.16%1.19%0.15%0.02%0.00%0.00%
8Seton Hall100.00%51.30%14.83%5.63%2.08%0.74%0.21%
9TCU100.00%48.70%13.58%4.99%1.78%0.61%0.16%
5Houston100.00%72.88%47.20%24.77%14.13%7.79%3.64%
12UAB100.00%27.12%11.30%3.43%1.16%0.37%0.09%
4Illinois100.00%71.58%33.86%14.81%7.11%3.29%1.25%
13Chattanooga100.00%28.42%7.64%1.86%0.51%0.13%0.03%
6Colorado St.100.00%45.55%15.95%5.90%1.86%0.63%0.17%
11Michigan100.00%54.45%21.20%8.72%3.09%1.17%0.35%
3Tennessee100.00%89.91%60.76%34.49%17.49%9.34%4.20%
14Longwood100.00%10.09%2.09%0.30%0.03%0.00%0.00%
7Ohio St.100.00%51.45%20.54%8.79%3.20%1.24%0.39%
10Loyola Chicago100.00%48.55%18.76%7.77%2.72%1.02%0.31%
2Villanova100.00%88.85%58.39%33.65%17.17%9.22%4.17%
15Delaware100.00%11.15%2.32%0.38%0.05%0.01%0.00%
Midwest
1Kansas100.00%94.39%68.55%45.41%28.41%15.95%7.96%
16*Texas Southern100.00%5.61%0.92%0.12%0.01%0.00%0.00%
8San Diego St.100.00%56.80%18.71%8.69%3.69%1.32%0.40%
9Creighton100.00%43.20%11.82%4.73%1.71%0.51%0.13%
5Iowa100.00%76.54%53.83%27.18%15.20%7.48%3.23%
12Richmond100.00%23.46%10.01%2.49%0.73%0.17%0.03%
4Providence100.00%59.77%23.71%8.12%3.18%1.04%0.29%
13South Dakota St.100.00%40.23%12.45%3.24%0.99%0.24%0.05%
6LSU100.00%63.33%38.90%18.17%8.08%3.38%1.22%
11Iowa St.100.00%36.67%17.81%6.10%1.96%0.58%0.14%
3Wisconsin100.00%76.23%37.67%15.63%6.14%2.24%0.70%
14Colgate100.00%23.77%5.61%1.05%0.18%0.03%0.00%
7USC100.00%55.50%18.91%8.86%3.16%1.04%0.29%
10Miami (FL)100.00%44.50%13.14%5.45%1.68%0.47%0.11%
2Auburn100.00%90.01%65.46%44.20%24.82%13.30%6.31%
15Jacksonville St.100.00%9.99%2.49%0.53%0.07%0.01%0.00%

I'm not including the COVID contingency teams this year, since I would guess the chances of them coming in to play is vanishingly low. 

Some things immediately stand out:

  • Gonzaga is the clear favorite (as they were last year)
  • Some very clear 6 over 3 and 5 over 4 upsets to the Sweet 16
  • Some 3 over 2 as well to the Elite 8
    • Tennessee a favorite over Villanova, and Texas Tech could take down Coach K
  • Kentucky is underseeded - they're #3 in my model, something Tate Frazier has been calling out as our Only Hope to take down Duke
    • Houston is too, but they run in to Arizona, the second best team
Full rankings:

RankTeamRating
1Gonzaga94.49
2Arizona90.00
3Kentucky89.54
4Kansas89.24
5Auburn88.33
6Baylor88.16
7Houston88.08
8UCLA88.00
9Duke87.96
10Texas Tech87.92
11Villanova87.55
12Tennessee87.44
13Purdue87.06
14Iowa86.76
15Illinois84.85
16Arkansas84.72
17Texas84.40
18UCONN84.38
19LSU84.07
20Alabama83.21
21Memphis82.95
22Saint Mary's82.94
23Ohio St.82.15
24Wisconsin82.13
25Virginia Tech82.11
26San Diego St.81.85
27Michigan81.77
28North Carolina81.65
29Loyola Chicago81.64
30San Francisco81.60
31Michigan St.81.23
32Indiana80.83
33Seton Hall80.80
34USC80.74
35Providence80.65
36Boise St.80.65
37TCU80.34
38Colorado St.80.22
39Marquette80.05
40Murray St.79.96
41Davidson79.90
42UAB79.59
43Creighton79.46
44Notre Dame79.38
45Iowa St.79.32
46Miami (FL)78.81
47Vermont77.53
48South Dakota St.77.20
49Chattanooga76.89
50Richmond76.67
51New Mexico St.76.24
52Colgate72.17
53Akron71.72
54Saint Peter's71.55
55Montana St.70.73
56Delaware70.55
57Jacksonville St.70.44
58Yale70.26
59Georgia St.69.87
60Longwood69.63
61CS Fullerton69.45
62Wright St.68.49
63Norfolk St.68.03
64Texas Southern67.09

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