It has been 8 years since I put out my first NCAA tournament bracket math, and this year's version is more in line with 2014 (and 2019) since last season had a strange retrodictive component due to the unbalanced nature of COVID-impacted schedules.
I've done away with that, and am back to just a composite of 4 different predictive models, similar to what FiveThirtyEight does:
- FiveThirtyEight (so I'm including a composite of a composite)
- KenPom (who's ratings are also included in FiveThirtyEight, so they're counted twice)
- Powerrank (created and maintained by Ed Feng)
- Jeff Sagarin (ratings also used in FiveThirtyEight; his Predictor rating)
These are the same 4 as last year, since even though it didn't pick Baylor as the winner, the model was still good enough for certain workplace uses.
I then use a weighted average of these 4 ratings that reduces outliers by weighting the ratings closer to the median higher. This smooths out the final Aggregate ratings that I then use to project the tournament.
Note: For simplicity, I've taken the highest rated team in each play-in game and included them.
| Seed | Team | 1st Round | 2nd Round | Sweet 16 | Elite 8 | Final Four | Championship | Champion |
| West | | | | | | | |
| 1 | Gonzaga | 100.00% | 96.12% | 78.33% | 61.84% | 44.72% | 31.40% | 21.83% |
| 16 | Georgia St. | 100.00% | 3.88% | 0.75% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 8 | Boise St. | 100.00% | 43.43% | 8.01% | 3.48% | 1.23% | 0.40% | 0.13% |
| 9 | Memphis | 100.00% | 56.57% | 12.91% | 6.43% | 2.67% | 1.04% | 0.40% |
| 5 | UCONN | 100.00% | 72.04% | 39.64% | 12.22% | 5.55% | 2.38% | 1.00% |
| 12 | New Mexico St. | 100.00% | 27.96% | 9.22% | 1.39% | 0.34% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 4 | Arkansas | 100.00% | 69.69% | 39.79% | 12.58% | 5.83% | 2.55% | 1.10% |
| 13 | Vermont | 100.00% | 30.31% | 11.36% | 1.94% | 0.54% | 0.14% | 0.03% |
| 6 | Alabama | 100.00% | 60.81% | 25.34% | 11.33% | 3.62% | 1.44% | 0.56% |
| 11* | Notre Dame | 100.00% | 39.19% | 12.57% | 4.35% | 1.03% | 0.31% | 0.09% |
| 3 | Texas Tech | 100.00% | 89.10% | 59.72% | 34.38% | 15.03% | 7.92% | 4.11% |
| 14 | Montana St. | 100.00% | 10.90% | 2.37% | 0.38% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 7 | Michigan St. | 100.00% | 53.81% | 19.35% | 7.52% | 2.07% | 0.71% | 0.24% |
| 10 | Davidson | 100.00% | 46.19% | 15.11% | 5.35% | 1.32% | 0.41% | 0.12% |
| 2 | Duke | 100.00% | 90.77% | 63.59% | 36.42% | 15.96% | 8.43% | 4.39% |
| 15 | CS Fullerton | 100.00% | 9.23% | 1.96% | 0.27% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| East | | | | | | | |
| 1 | Baylor | 100.00% | 92.54% | 64.56% | 37.33% | 20.26% | 9.30% | 4.89% |
| 16 | Norfolk St. | 100.00% | 7.46% | 1.33% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 8 | North Carolina | 100.00% | 54.58% | 19.60% | 7.84% | 2.86% | 1.07% | 0.32% |
| 9 | Marquette | 100.00% | 45.42% | 14.52% | 5.20% | 1.68% | 0.43% | 0.13% |
| 5 | Saint Mary's | 100.00% | 56.03% | 23.03% | 9.90% | 3.95% | 1.28% | 0.49% |
| 12* | Indiana | 100.00% | 43.97% | 15.70% | 5.86% | 2.01% | 0.55% | 0.18% |
| 4 | UCLA | 100.00% | 87.83% | 58.46% | 33.23% | 17.89% | 8.13% | 4.24% |
| 13 | Akron | 100.00% | 12.17% | 2.81% | 0.48% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 6 | Texas | 100.00% | 56.54% | 26.71% | 11.86% | 5.36% | 1.93% | 0.81% |
| 11 | Virginia Tech | 100.00% | 43.46% | 17.88% | 6.86% | 2.67% | 0.81% | 0.29% |
| 3 | Purdue | 100.00% | 88.57% | 53.42% | 27.57% | 14.48% | 6.22% | 3.08% |
| 14 | Yale | 100.00% | 11.43% | 1.99% | 0.27% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 7 | Murray St. | 100.00% | 45.33% | 13.31% | 4.75% | 1.58% | 0.40% | 0.12% |
| 10 | San Francisco | 100.00% | 54.67% | 18.14% | 7.26% | 2.73% | 0.80% | 0.28% |
| 2 | Kentucky | 100.00% | 90.14% | 66.07% | 41.00% | 24.34% | 12.07% | 6.82% |
| 15 | Saint Peter's | 100.00% | 9.86% | 2.49% | 0.42% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| South | | | | | | | |
| 1 | Arizona | 100.00% | 93.84% | 70.40% | 44.36% | 27.60% | 16.66% | 8.66% |
| 16* | Wright St. | 100.00% | 6.16% | 1.19% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 8 | Seton Hall | 100.00% | 51.30% | 14.83% | 5.63% | 2.08% | 0.74% | 0.21% |
| 9 | TCU | 100.00% | 48.70% | 13.58% | 4.99% | 1.78% | 0.61% | 0.16% |
| 5 | Houston | 100.00% | 72.88% | 47.20% | 24.77% | 14.13% | 7.79% | 3.64% |
| 12 | UAB | 100.00% | 27.12% | 11.30% | 3.43% | 1.16% | 0.37% | 0.09% |
| 4 | Illinois | 100.00% | 71.58% | 33.86% | 14.81% | 7.11% | 3.29% | 1.25% |
| 13 | Chattanooga | 100.00% | 28.42% | 7.64% | 1.86% | 0.51% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 6 | Colorado St. | 100.00% | 45.55% | 15.95% | 5.90% | 1.86% | 0.63% | 0.17% |
| 11 | Michigan | 100.00% | 54.45% | 21.20% | 8.72% | 3.09% | 1.17% | 0.35% |
| 3 | Tennessee | 100.00% | 89.91% | 60.76% | 34.49% | 17.49% | 9.34% | 4.20% |
| 14 | Longwood | 100.00% | 10.09% | 2.09% | 0.30% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 7 | Ohio St. | 100.00% | 51.45% | 20.54% | 8.79% | 3.20% | 1.24% | 0.39% |
| 10 | Loyola Chicago | 100.00% | 48.55% | 18.76% | 7.77% | 2.72% | 1.02% | 0.31% |
| 2 | Villanova | 100.00% | 88.85% | 58.39% | 33.65% | 17.17% | 9.22% | 4.17% |
| 15 | Delaware | 100.00% | 11.15% | 2.32% | 0.38% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| Midwest | | | | | | | |
| 1 | Kansas | 100.00% | 94.39% | 68.55% | 45.41% | 28.41% | 15.95% | 7.96% |
| 16* | Texas Southern | 100.00% | 5.61% | 0.92% | 0.12% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 8 | San Diego St. | 100.00% | 56.80% | 18.71% | 8.69% | 3.69% | 1.32% | 0.40% |
| 9 | Creighton | 100.00% | 43.20% | 11.82% | 4.73% | 1.71% | 0.51% | 0.13% |
| 5 | Iowa | 100.00% | 76.54% | 53.83% | 27.18% | 15.20% | 7.48% | 3.23% |
| 12 | Richmond | 100.00% | 23.46% | 10.01% | 2.49% | 0.73% | 0.17% | 0.03% |
| 4 | Providence | 100.00% | 59.77% | 23.71% | 8.12% | 3.18% | 1.04% | 0.29% |
| 13 | South Dakota St. | 100.00% | 40.23% | 12.45% | 3.24% | 0.99% | 0.24% | 0.05% |
| 6 | LSU | 100.00% | 63.33% | 38.90% | 18.17% | 8.08% | 3.38% | 1.22% |
| 11 | Iowa St. | 100.00% | 36.67% | 17.81% | 6.10% | 1.96% | 0.58% | 0.14% |
| 3 | Wisconsin | 100.00% | 76.23% | 37.67% | 15.63% | 6.14% | 2.24% | 0.70% |
| 14 | Colgate | 100.00% | 23.77% | 5.61% | 1.05% | 0.18% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 7 | USC | 100.00% | 55.50% | 18.91% | 8.86% | 3.16% | 1.04% | 0.29% |
| 10 | Miami (FL) | 100.00% | 44.50% | 13.14% | 5.45% | 1.68% | 0.47% | 0.11% |
| 2 | Auburn | 100.00% | 90.01% | 65.46% | 44.20% | 24.82% | 13.30% | 6.31% |
| 15 | Jacksonville St. | 100.00% | 9.99% | 2.49% | 0.53% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
I'm not including the COVID contingency teams this year, since I would guess the chances of them coming in to play is vanishingly low.
Some things immediately stand out:
- Gonzaga is the clear favorite (as they were last year)
- Some very clear 6 over 3 and 5 over 4 upsets to the Sweet 16
- Some 3 over 2 as well to the Elite 8
- Tennessee a favorite over Villanova, and Texas Tech could take down Coach K
- Kentucky is underseeded - they're #3 in my model, something Tate Frazier has been calling out as our Only Hope to take down Duke
- Houston is too, but they run in to Arizona, the second best team
Full rankings:
| Rank | Team | Rating |
| 1 | Gonzaga | 94.49 |
| 2 | Arizona | 90.00 |
| 3 | Kentucky | 89.54 |
| 4 | Kansas | 89.24 |
| 5 | Auburn | 88.33 |
| 6 | Baylor | 88.16 |
| 7 | Houston | 88.08 |
| 8 | UCLA | 88.00 |
| 9 | Duke | 87.96 |
| 10 | Texas Tech | 87.92 |
| 11 | Villanova | 87.55 |
| 12 | Tennessee | 87.44 |
| 13 | Purdue | 87.06 |
| 14 | Iowa | 86.76 |
| 15 | Illinois | 84.85 |
| 16 | Arkansas | 84.72 |
| 17 | Texas | 84.40 |
| 18 | UCONN | 84.38 |
| 19 | LSU | 84.07 |
| 20 | Alabama | 83.21 |
| 21 | Memphis | 82.95 |
| 22 | Saint Mary's | 82.94 |
| 23 | Ohio St. | 82.15 |
| 24 | Wisconsin | 82.13 |
| 25 | Virginia Tech | 82.11 |
| 26 | San Diego St. | 81.85 |
| 27 | Michigan | 81.77 |
| 28 | North Carolina | 81.65 |
| 29 | Loyola Chicago | 81.64 |
| 30 | San Francisco | 81.60 |
| 31 | Michigan St. | 81.23 |
| 32 | Indiana | 80.83 |
| 33 | Seton Hall | 80.80 |
| 34 | USC | 80.74 |
| 35 | Providence | 80.65 |
| 36 | Boise St. | 80.65 |
| 37 | TCU | 80.34 |
| 38 | Colorado St. | 80.22 |
| 39 | Marquette | 80.05 |
| 40 | Murray St. | 79.96 |
| 41 | Davidson | 79.90 |
| 42 | UAB | 79.59 |
| 43 | Creighton | 79.46 |
| 44 | Notre Dame | 79.38 |
| 45 | Iowa St. | 79.32 |
| 46 | Miami (FL) | 78.81 |
| 47 | Vermont | 77.53 |
| 48 | South Dakota St. | 77.20 |
| 49 | Chattanooga | 76.89 |
| 50 | Richmond | 76.67 |
| 51 | New Mexico St. | 76.24 |
| 52 | Colgate | 72.17 |
| 53 | Akron | 71.72 |
| 54 | Saint Peter's | 71.55 |
| 55 | Montana St. | 70.73 |
| 56 | Delaware | 70.55 |
| 57 | Jacksonville St. | 70.44 |
| 58 | Yale | 70.26 |
| 59 | Georgia St. | 69.87 |
| 60 | Longwood | 69.63 |
| 61 | CS Fullerton | 69.45 |
| 62 | Wright St. | 68.49 |
| 63 | Norfolk St. | 68.03 |
| 64 | Texas Southern | 67.09 |
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