"What are the odds?" Duke and Carolina Will Meet in the NCAA Tournament, and When

Duke/Carolina is arguably the fiercest rivalry in all of college sports. I can understand if you choose The Game (since they did fight an actual war at one point), but results this century don't encompass a compelling argument:

And between North Carolina and Duke, the two schools rank #3/#4 in all-time wins, have 48/42 NCAA tournament appearances, 20/16 Final Fours, and 11/11 championship game appearances (all figures are respective). So it's fairly surprising that we've never met in the NCAA tournament (we met once in the NIT, in 1971).

The committee never puts us in the same region, so the Final Four would be the earliest meeting. And even for the best teams, it's more likely than not that they won't make the Final Four. So this proposition is definitely a long shot, but not impossible; it almost happened in 1991 in the title game. So when is it expected to happen?

I started by gathering the seedings for both us and Dook over the past 20 seasons (we also missed the tournament 3 times...):

	Average	Median	Mode	Max	Min	Standard Dev
Carolina	3	2	1	1	8	2.53
Dook	1.9	2	1	1	6	1.33

We've had more variance, but the most likely seed for both teams is a 2. We also have been on the same side of the bracket only 5 times in this period, or 25% of the time (in other words, 25% of the time we could have met in the Final Four, and the rest of the time would have been in the title game).

Next, I drew a fairly deep sample of the odds a generic 1 through 8 seed makes the Final Four using the past 5 seasons of my model:

Seed	Prob FF
1	28.93%
2	23.73%
3	12.51%
4	10.59%
5	7.67%
6	4.34%
7	2.98%
8	2.20%

Note: I threw out Kentucky's region from 2015. Talk about an outlier: 78.5% to make the Final Four!

So now for the math on an outcome I certainly hope to never see; I actually agree with Coach K, who stated in '91 "that he never wanted the two schools to play in the last game of the season because it would be too devastating for the loser." (Chansky, Blue Blood: Duke-Carolina) 

The Bump (or Lack Thereof) From Winning Your Conference Tournament

My friend/former "splash bro" intramural teammate submitted the following query: Do teams that win their conference tournaments go further in the NCAA tournament?

I looked at every power conference tournament champion since 2002 (chosen since it was the first year KenPom released ratings), which encompasses the ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, SEC, and Pac 12. 

I seriously considered leaving out the Pac 12, since the last time they won the whole thing was 1997 with Arizona. However, if I used that cutoff, I would have had to eliminate the Big 10 too, as they last won in 2000 with Michigan State... (no, Maryland does not count)

Year	Champion	Conference	Won Conf?
2018	Villanova	Big East	1
2017	North Carolina	ACC	0
2016	Villanova	Big East	0
2015	Duke	ACC	0
2014	Connecticut	AAC	0
2013	Louisville	Big East	1
2012	Kentucky	SEC	0
2011	Connecticut	Big East	1
2010	Duke	ACC	1
2009	North Carolina	ACC	0
2008	Kansas	Big 12	1
2007	Florida	SEC	1
2006	Florida	SEC	1
2005	North Carolina	ACC	0
2004	Connecticut	Big East	1
2003	Syracuse	Big East	0
2002	Maryland	ACC	0

8 of the past 17 champions won their conference tournament, 8 more were at-large from power conferences, and the only non-power conference champion was Connecticut (AAC) in 2014.

There are anecdotal examples for each extreme: Connecticut going on their run in 2011, winning 11 consecutive games en route to the title, or Virginia, dominating the ACC all year last year and then losing to UMBC. 

All in, this is how all conference tournament victors performed:

Finish	Count	%	Cumul %
First Round	14	13.7%	100.0%
Second Round	20	19.6%	86.3%
Sweet 16	26	25.5%	66.7%
Elite 8	17	16.7%	41.2%
Final Four	11	10.8%	24.5%
Championship	6	5.9%	13.7%
Champion	8	7.8%	7.8%
Total	102	100.0%	100.0%

NCAA Tournament Bracket Math for the MDS Model

Quick turnaround this year:

Here are the picks by the MDS Model for this year's NCAA tournament, as well as the win probabilities (using Log5).

Note: The winning score prediction was gathered from Massey Ratings.

NCAA Tournament 2025 Bracket Math for the MDS Model

By almost any rating system, North Carolina deserved to be in the tournament.

For those who are still reading and didn't rage quit this post written by a UNC grad, this year's composite contains 4 models:

• KenPom (the one and only)
• Powerrank (created and maintained by Ed Feng)
• Seven Overtimes (created and maintained by Mark Bashuk)
• Nate Silver (I shelled out for the paywall this year)

As always, I use a weighted average of these 4 ratings, which smooths out the final Aggregate ratings that I use to project the tournament.

First I will bore you with evidence that Carolina did in fact deserve to be in, per any advanced metric rating system. KenPom: #33, Powerrank: #42, Seven Overtimes: #33, Nate Silver: #33, and by my overall model, we rank #35. Compare this to:

• The other First Four at-large teams:
• Xavier: #40
• San Diego St: #41
• Texas: #47
• And the other first few teams out:
• Boise St: #42
• Colorado St: #44
• Indiana: #46
• West Virginia: #50
• UC Irvine: #55

Alternatively, our play is evidence Brett Yormark is wrong and we absolutely should not expand the NCAA tournament! 

Given that 68 teams get in (for now), we deserved to be one of them. Credit to @wagner_seymour and @michaelwatson2:

Now the bracket math. Note: For simplicity, I've taken the highest rated team in each play-in game and included them

Seed	Team	1st Round	2nd Round	Sweet 16	Elite 8	Final Four	Championship	Champion
	South
1	Auburn	100.00%	99.33%	74.82%	57.12%	40.41%	24.17%	13.97%
16*	Alabama St.	100.00%	0.67%	0.03%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
8	Louisville	100.00%	57.97%	16.10%	8.83%	4.25%	1.58%	0.55%
9	Creighton	100.00%	42.03%	9.06%	4.25%	1.72%	0.52%	0.15%
5	Michigan	100.00%	58.79%	32.00%	10.20%	4.69%	1.66%	0.55%
12	UC San Diego	100.00%	41.21%	18.93%	4.68%	1.76%	0.49%	0.13%
4	Texas A&M	100.00%	73.29%	40.64%	13.61%	6.51%	2.40%	0.84%
13	Yale	100.00%	26.71%	8.42%	1.30%	0.33%	0.06%	0.01%
6	Ole Miss	100.00%	55.92%	27.54%	12.28%	4.40%	1.52%	0.49%
11*	North Carolina	100.00%	44.08%	19.25%	7.50%	2.30%	0.68%	0.19%
3	Iowa St.	100.00%	81.44%	48.43%	24.88%	10.47%	4.28%	1.65%
14	Lipscomb	100.00%	18.56%	4.77%	0.96%	0.14%	0.02%	0.00%
7	Marquette	100.00%	54.44%	22.56%	10.84%	3.79%	1.28%	0.40%
10	New Mexico	100.00%	45.56%	17.05%	7.46%	2.32%	0.70%	0.19%
2	Michigan St.	100.00%	89.90%	58.50%	35.76%	16.88%	7.77%	3.40%
15	Bryant	100.00%	10.10%	1.90%	0.32%	0.03%	0.00%	0.00%
	West
1	Florida	100.00%	98.07%	81.12%	61.26%	43.93%	28.61%	17.26%
16	Norfolk St.	100.00%	1.93%	0.26%	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
8	Connecticut	100.00%	58.89%	12.33%	5.48%	2.16%	0.71%	0.21%
9	Oklahoma	100.00%	41.11%	6.30%	2.27%	0.71%	0.19%	0.04%
5	Memphis	100.00%	57.62%	25.21%	6.79%	2.76%	0.95%	0.28%
12	Colorado St.	100.00%	42.38%	15.59%	3.34%	1.12%	0.31%	0.07%
4	Maryland	100.00%	83.02%	54.28%	20.27%	10.73%	4.95%	2.02%
13	Grand Canyon	100.00%	16.98%	4.91%	0.57%	0.11%	0.02%	0.00%
6	Missouri	100.00%	62.70%	30.42%	13.90%	4.80%	1.88%	0.64%
11	Drake	100.00%	37.30%	13.68%	4.59%	1.11%	0.31%	0.07%
3	Texas Tech	100.00%	84.24%	52.05%	27.48%	11.26%	5.19%	2.13%
14	UNC Wilmington	100.00%	15.76%	3.85%	0.70%	0.09%	0.01%	0.00%
7	Kansas	100.00%	64.90%	28.38%	14.09%	4.93%	1.96%	0.68%
10	Arkansas	100.00%	35.10%	10.61%	3.73%	0.86%	0.23%	0.05%
2	St. John's	100.00%	93.48%	60.15%	35.42%	15.44%	7.53%	3.28%
15	Omaha	100.00%	6.52%	0.86%	0.09%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%
	East
1	Duke	100.00%	98.75%	81.14%	63.18%	43.15%	28.10%	17.18%
16*	American	100.00%	1.25%	0.12%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
8	Mississippi St.	100.00%	49.82%	9.31%	4.20%	1.41%	0.44%	0.12%
9	Baylor	100.00%	50.18%	9.44%	4.28%	1.45%	0.45%	0.12%
5	Oregon	100.00%	59.80%	24.98%	5.83%	1.92%	0.58%	0.16%
12	Liberty	100.00%	40.20%	13.26%	2.25%	0.56%	0.12%	0.02%
4	Arizona	100.00%	81.45%	55.48%	19.53%	9.16%	4.00%	1.59%
13	Akron	100.00%	18.55%	6.28%	0.72%	0.12%	0.02%	0.00%
6	BYU	100.00%	48.89%	22.52%	8.15%	2.58%	0.92%	0.29%
11	VCU	100.00%	51.11%	24.07%	8.96%	2.92%	1.07%	0.35%
3	Wisconsin	100.00%	89.09%	51.74%	22.92%	8.96%	3.91%	1.55%
14	Montana	100.00%	10.91%	1.66%	0.16%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%
7	St. Mary's	100.00%	72.62%	28.14%	14.67%	5.44%	2.25%	0.85%
10	Vanderbilt	100.00%	27.38%	5.46%	1.61%	0.30%	0.06%	0.01%
2	Alabama	100.00%	93.51%	65.28%	43.37%	21.99%	12.26%	6.33%
15	Robert Morris	100.00%	6.49%	1.12%	0.16%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%
	Midwest
1	Houston	100.00%	98.27%	66.08%	49.23%	33.12%	18.77%	10.69%
16	SIU Edwardsville	100.00%	1.73%	0.09%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
8	Gonzaga	100.00%	67.96%	26.43%	16.90%	9.45%	4.25%	1.92%
9	Georgia	100.00%	32.04%	7.40%	3.41%	1.30%	0.37%	0.11%
5	Clemson	100.00%	71.57%	42.53%	14.94%	7.09%	2.61%	0.97%
12	McNeese St.	100.00%	28.43%	10.76%	1.88%	0.51%	0.10%	0.02%
4	Purdue	100.00%	74.06%	39.16%	12.58%	5.56%	1.88%	0.64%
13	High Point	100.00%	25.94%	7.54%	1.04%	0.23%	0.03%	0.01%
6	Illinois	100.00%	59.21%	31.72%	13.39%	4.94%	1.67%	0.57%
11*	Xavier	100.00%	40.79%	18.27%	6.18%	1.79%	0.47%	0.12%
3	Kentucky	100.00%	80.29%	45.17%	20.15%	7.90%	2.85%	1.03%
14	Troy	100.00%	19.71%	4.84%	0.84%	0.12%	0.01%	0.00%
7	UCLA	100.00%	60.19%	21.23%	10.31%	3.49%	1.08%	0.33%
10	Utah St.	100.00%	39.81%	10.70%	4.13%	1.05%	0.24%	0.05%
2	Tennessee	100.00%	90.91%	65.94%	44.57%	23.39%	11.48%	5.67%
15	Wofford	100.00%	9.09%	2.13%	0.42%	0.05%	0.00%	0.00%
	Totals	64.00	32.00	16.00	8.00	4.00	2.00	1.00
Seed	Team	1st Round
16*	Alabama St.	53.41%
16*	St. Francis	46.59%
16*	American	52.12%
16*	Mount St. Mary's	47.88%
11*	San Diego St.	46.16%
11*	North Carolina	53.84%
11*	Texas	41.87%
11*	Xavier	58.13%

Some notes:

• A super chalky bracket, with all four 1-seeds favored to make the Final Four, and all at 40%+ with the exception of Houston
• This is thanks to Gonzaga (#7 in my rating) as Houston's likely second round opponent
• These four 1-seeds are the only teams with > 10% to win it all, with Florida, Dook, and Auburn a step above (in that order (barely))
• Dook is BARELY the highest rated team, but has a slightly harder route (Caleb Love or Grant Nelson, please) and comes in less than 0.1% lower in chances to win it all because of it
• The relative strength/weakness of the two 1 seeds facing play-in 16 seeds is very elevated - Auburn and Dook both have 99% chance of moving on (hoping for a jinx here)

Full rankings:

Rank	Seed	Team	Rating
1	1	Duke	94.77
2	1	Florida	94.70
3	1	Auburn	93.76
4	1	Houston	93.20
5	2	Alabama	91.24
6	2	Tennessee	90.41
7	8	Gonzaga	88.89
8	2	Michigan St.	88.66
9	2	St. John's	88.58
10	4	Maryland	87.59
11	3	Texas Tech	87.59
12	4	Arizona	86.85
13	3	Wisconsin	86.82
14	3	Iowa St.	86.73
15	7	St. Mary's	86.01
16	5	Clemson	85.82
17	3	Kentucky	85.51
18	8	Louisville	85.34
19	4	Texas A&M	85.23
20	7	Kansas	85.23
21	6	Missouri	85.04
22	4	Purdue	84.64
23	6	Illinois	84.62
24	5	Michigan	84.58
25	6	Ole Miss	84.30
26	11	VCU	84.16
27	7	Marquette	83.95
28	6	BYU	83.77
29	7	UCLA	83.42
30	5	Memphis	83.18
31	8	Connecticut	82.75
32	9	Creighton	82.54
33	10	New Mexico	82.40
34	9	Georgia	82.39
35	11	North Carolina	82.22
37	8	Mississippi St.	81.89
36	9	Baylor	81.95
38	5	Oregon	81.62
39	12	UC San Diego	81.48
40	11	Xavier	81.37
41	11	San Diego St.	80.88
42	11	Drake	80.52
43	12	Colorado St.	80.50
44	10	Arkansas	79.89
45	10	Utah St.	79.82
46	9	Oklahoma	79.62
47	11	Texas	78.50
48	12	Liberty	78.16
49	12	McNeese St.	77.87
50	10	Vanderbilt	77.62
51	13	Yale	76.56
52	13	High Point	75.64
53	13	Akron	74.37
54	13	Grand Canyon	74.27
55	14	Lipscomb	74.26
56	14	Troy	73.62
57	14	UNC Wilmington	73.58
58	15	Wofford	71.78
59	15	Bryant	70.86
60	15	Robert Morris	70.11
61	14	Montana	69.64
62	15	Omaha	67.48
63	16	Norfolk St.	65.85
64	16	SIU Edwardsville	63.71
65	16	American	63.49
66	16	Mount St. Mary's	62.75
67	16	Alabama St.	59.26
68	16	St. Francis	58.07