Friday, March 25, 2022

Sweet 16 per the MDS Model (2022)

 Going in to Thursday's games, here's what it looks like:

SeedTeamElite 8Final FourChampionshipChampion
Sweet 16
1Gonzaga75.82%51.62%36.88%25.34%
4Arkansas24.18%9.89%4.47%1.89%
3Texas Tech49.88%19.17%10.37%5.30%
2Duke50.12%19.32%10.47%5.37%
8North Carolina32.47%13.13%3.40%1.16%
4UCLA67.53%38.75%16.17%8.30%
3Purdue86.70%46.03%18.06%8.80%
15Saint Peter's13.30%2.08%0.19%0.02%
1Arizona55.45%34.46%21.76%10.98%
5Houston44.55%25.36%14.75%6.67%
11Michigan33.95%10.15%4.19%1.21%
2Villanova66.05%30.03%17.04%7.46%
1Kansas73.10%56.06%30.05%14.54%
4Providence26.90%14.66%4.44%1.17%
11Iowa St.51.47%15.37%4.16%0.97%
10Miami (FL)48.53%13.91%3.60%0.80%

Still Gonzaga's tournament to lose, but now Kansas is favored to come out of the other half. The winner of Arizona/Houston might jump them, as that is a massive top matchup in the Sweet 16.

42% chance at least one double-digit seed makes the Final Four at this point (most likely - Iowa St).

Up to a 1 in 40 chance Duke/Carolina meets in the tournament, and a 1 in 20 chance this national nightmare doesn't end.

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