Back in 2020, both my simulator and FiveThirtyEight projected the Miami Heat to beat the Los Angeles Lakers in the bubble - both obviously overstating Miami's chances. And FiveThirtyEight is doing it again - giving Boston an 80% (!!!) chance of beating Golden State for the title.
I don't have it that extreme (just like I didn't give Lebron a 1 in 4 chance in 2020), but I do also have Boston as the favorite, with Boston in 6 the most likely outcome:
| # Games | BOS in... | GSW in... |
| 4 | 8.5% | 4.6% |
| 5 | 15.5% | 9.8% |
| 6 | 18.2% | 13.7% |
| 7 | 15.3% | 14.4% |
| 57.5% | 42.5% |
Golden State may have more scoring depth, but the sims have Tatum and Brown besting Curry and the Warriors second star (is it Klay? Poole depending upon the game? Wiggins?):
| Name | Pos | Team | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Turnovers | Steals | Blocks |
| Jayson Tatum | SF | BOS | 29.7 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 |
| Stephen Curry | PG | GSW | 25.8 | 4.2 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.2 |
| Jaylen Brown | SG | BOS | 20.7 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.2 |
| Andrew Wiggins | SF | GSW | 16.8 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| Klay Thompson | SF | GSW | 16.5 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| Jordan Poole | SG | GSW | 16.1 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| Marcus Smart | PG | BOS | 13.7 | 3.5 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.1 |
| Grant Williams | PF | BOS | 12.2 | 4.6 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Al Horford | C | BOS | 11.1 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Draymond Green | PF | GSW | 9.1 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Derrick White | SG | BOS | 8.2 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| Kevon Looney | C | GSW | 8.1 | 8.7 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Robert Williams | PF | BOS | 5.3 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
Indicative of a tight series, on a game-by-game basis, Golden State wins by a score of 110-108 at home 53.2% of the time, and Boston has slightly better odds in their building, 53.6% by a score of 112-110.
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