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Tuesday, April 1, 2025

Final Four per the MDS Model (2025)

We got all 1 seeds for the first time since 2008, and just about chalk all around.

This makes for as evenly matched a Final Four as I've ever seen, with every single team having a better than 20% chance to win the title. They were clearly the top 4 at the start of the tournament (minimum 11% chance to win), then again at the Sweet 16 (minimum 14% chance to win), and remain that way with a minimum 21% chance to win.

SeedTeamChampionshipChampion
Final Four
1Auburn47.32%23.26%
1Florida52.68%27.30%
1Duke54.49%28.05%
1Houston45.51%21.39%