As always, winning 2 games in a row is really hard - just like it was last year, when both the 7 and 8 seeds ultimately made the playoffs. No 7 seed has ever ultimately missed the playoffs since the play-in began in 2021.
This year is no different - while the 7 and 8 in the East are clearly superior teams, the second best play-in team in the West is the 10 seed Golden State Warriors.
But they have to win twice in a row, on the road - and thus have the worst odds of making the playoffs out of the West.
This also speaks to how perilous a strategy it would be for the Lakers to intentionally lose the first play-in game to avoid Denver in the first round (something that has been suggested).
Even setting aside that I have the Nuggets rated lower than the Thunder, the Lakers would only have about a 55% chance to beat either the Kings or Warriors in a single game. That leaves 45% where they completely miss the playoffs - so the difference in beating OKC over Denver would have to be massive to maximize "likelihood to win the title".
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