Final Four per the MDS Model (2024)

While Houston went bust, one of the other two top contenders are overwhelmingly our likely champion (85% combined). But due to the much easier path (on paper) for Purdue, they substantially outpace Connecticut to win it all - even though Connecticut looks pretty unbeatable and has led by 30+ in every game.

Seed	Team	Championship	Champion
	Final Four
1	Connecticut	67.60%	38.86%
4	Alabama	32.40%	13.12%
1	Purdue	87.11%	46.07%
11	NC State	12.89%	1.95%

I did pick the champion last year correctly at this stage (Connecticut). In the likely outcome that it's Connecticut/Purdue in the final (60%), Connecticut would be about a 1 point favorite over Purdue.

Seed	Matchups	Title Game
1	Connecticut	52.89%
1	Purdue	47.11%
1	Connecticut	88.57%
11	NC State	11.43%
4	Alabama	35.04%
1	Purdue	64.96%
4	Alabama	77.25%
11	NC State	22.75%