The 7-seed has still never missed the playoffs in the play-in era, with two chances to win one home game to advance.
This year is even more lopsided than normal, as my model has Golden State as the second strongest team in the West (way behind OKC though). Memphis is very strong as well, and both 7 and 8 in the West are far ahead of Sacramento and Dallas.
The East is more replacement level, with Miami projecting as the second best play-in team in the conference. But winning two games on the road back-to-back is a very tall order and results in an 80% chance they miss the playoffs.
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