Probabilis: Final Four per the MDS Model (2023)

Going in to last year's Final Four, the Coach K Farewell Tour had the highest chance of ending with a title. Instead, this:

Going in to this year's tournament, six teams made up > 50% of champions:

And going in to the Sweet 16, we had a likely champion between:

Instead, here we are!

The last time I picked the champion going in to the Final Four was Virginia in 2019. I certainly didn't get UCONN's last title in 2014.

Of all the possible title game matchups, they would be a decent favorite should they get there:

Probabilis