Going in to last year's Sweet Sixteen, Gonzaga was a decently large favorite. They would lose their very next game.
Houston and Alabama were barely favorites at the start of this tournament, and Alabama has pulled ahead of Houston as the most likely champion by the slightest of margins:
| Seed | Team | Elite 8 | Final Four | Championship | Champion |
| Sweet 16 | | | | |
| 1 | Alabama | 69.05% | 47.87% | 32.33% | 18.17% |
| 5 | San Diego St. | 30.95% | 15.88% | 7.73% | 2.85% |
| 6 | Creighton | 83.23% | 34.20% | 18.16% | 7.49% |
| 15 | Princeton | 16.77% | 2.06% | 0.40% | 0.05% |
| 9 | FAU | 34.46% | 16.74% | 5.78% | 1.82% |
| 4 | Tennessee | 65.54% | 42.08% | 20.84% | 9.70% |
| 3 | Kansas St. | 53.37% | 22.78% | 8.48% | 2.90% |
| 7 | Michigan St. | 46.63% | 18.40% | 6.29% | 1.96% |
| 1 | Houston | 76.71% | 48.35% | 28.93% | 18.07% |
| 5 | Miami (FL) | 23.29% | 8.12% | 2.58% | 0.90% |
| 3 | Xavier | 38.06% | 13.91% | 5.47% | 2.32% |
| 2 | Texas | 61.94% | 29.62% | 15.17% | 8.21% |
| 8 | Arkansas | 35.79% | 12.61% | 4.47% | 1.81% |
| 4 | Connecticut | 64.21% | 31.72% | 15.62% | 8.49% |
| 3 | Gonzaga | 47.43% | 25.78% | 12.51% | 6.71% |
| 2 | UCLA | 52.57% | 29.89% | 15.26% | 8.56% |
0.1% separates Alabama and Houston, and neither are an overwhelming favorite. Tennessee, UCLA, Connecticut, and Texas are all in the mix as well.
Most likely Final Four (3% chance): Alabama, Tennessee, Houston, Connecticut
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