NBA Playoffs 2025 Bracket Math (Post Play-In)

The streak continues again - no regular season 7 seed has failed to make the playoffs in the play-in era. This year, a 10 seed finally made the playoffs, featuring the Miami Heat. However, their run should end shortly, with only a 5% chance of beating Cleveland.

OKC is an absolute dominant favorite - over 50% chance of winning the title seems aggressive, but they did have the best point differential in the history of the NBA (+12.9). This feels similar to 2019, when models had Milwaukee as a dominant favorite, no one really seemed to trust it, and Toronto swooped in and won the title. Could say the same thing last season though - Boston was dominant in the regular season, no one really seemed to trust it, and they didn't really meet much resistance throughout the playoffs.

The bigger wrinkle this year is how tight the West is outside of OKC - other than Memphis getting steamrolled by them, I have all lower seeds advancing out of the first round in the West.

Including the top 2 seeds in the East, there is over a 90% chance one of the top 3 contenders wins it all (OKC, Boston, and then Cleveland). No one else has better than a ~1 in 50 shot.

NBA Play-In 2025 Bracket Math

The 7-seed has still never missed the playoffs in the play-in era, with two chances to win one home game to advance. 

This year is even more lopsided than normal, as my model has Golden State as the second strongest team in the West (way behind OKC though). Memphis is very strong as well, and both 7 and 8 in the West are far ahead of Sacramento and Dallas.

The East is more replacement level, with Miami projecting as the second best play-in team in the conference. But winning two games on the road back-to-back is a very tall order and results in an 80% chance they miss the playoffs.

Final Four per the MDS Model (2025)

We got all 1 seeds for the first time since 2008, and just about chalk all around.

This makes for as evenly matched a Final Four as I've ever seen, with every single team having a better than 20% chance to win the title. They were clearly the top 4 at the start of the tournament (minimum 11% chance to win), then again at the Sweet 16 (minimum 14% chance to win), and remain that way with a minimum 21% chance to win.

Seed	Team	Championship	Champion
	Final Four
1	Auburn	47.32%	23.26%
1	Florida	52.68%	27.30%
1	Duke	54.49%	28.05%
1	Houston	45.51%	21.39%

Last year I didn't pick the champion at this stage correctly, nor did I in 2022, so let's hope that's the case again.

Sweet 16 per the MDS Model (2025)

Going in to last year's Sweet Sixteen, we had three clearly elevated teams: Houston, Connecticut, and Purdue. Connecticut went on to win the title for the second straight year. 

Houston is back again, but as the fourth favorite with better than 10% odds - Florida at 19%, Duke at 17%, Auburn at 16%, and Houston at 14%. The rest of the field makes up the other 35%.

• Most likely Final Four (5.6% chance): all four #1 seeds (Auburn + Florida + Duke + Houston), each with about a 50% chance to get there
• Chances of an all-SEC Final Four: 5.1% (Auburn + Ole Miss, Florida + Arkansas, Alabama, Kentucky + Tennessee)
• Chances of the Big 10 winning its first title since 2000: 10% (Michigan + Michigan St + Maryland + Purdue)
• Chances of the ACC winning its 9th title since 2000: 17% (Duke)

Seed	Team	Elite 8	Final Four	Championship	Champion
	Sweet 16
1	Auburn	74.48%	50.93%	29.45%	16.35%
5	Michigan	25.52%	11.01%	3.67%	1.13%
6	Ole Miss	37.73%	11.73%	3.83%	1.15%
2	Michigan St.	62.27%	26.33%	11.58%	4.79%
1	Florida	69.48%	51.52%	31.89%	18.52%
4	Maryland	30.52%	17.12%	7.28%	2.80%
3	Texas Tech	70.94%	25.87%	11.00%	4.23%
10	Arkansas	29.06%	5.49%	1.30%	0.26%
1	Duke	71.50%	46.81%	28.93%	17.06%
4	Arizona	28.50%	12.50%	5.00%	1.87%
6	BYU	29.61%	8.04%	2.57%	0.76%
2	Alabama	70.39%	32.65%	17.03%	8.39%
1	Houston	73.04%	45.76%	24.68%	13.50%
4	Purdue	26.96%	10.48%	3.25%	1.03%
3	Kentucky	36.26%	12.83%	4.25%	1.44%
2	Tennessee	63.74%	30.94%	14.29%	6.72%

NCAA Tournament 2025 Bracket Math for the MDS Model

By almost any rating system, North Carolina deserved to be in the tournament.

For those who are still reading and didn't rage quit this post written by a UNC grad, this year's composite contains 4 models:

• KenPom (the one and only)
• Powerrank (created and maintained by Ed Feng)
• Seven Overtimes (created and maintained by Mark Bashuk)
• Nate Silver (I shelled out for the paywall this year)

As always, I use a weighted average of these 4 ratings, which smooths out the final Aggregate ratings that I use to project the tournament.

First I will bore you with evidence that Carolina did in fact deserve to be in, per any advanced metric rating system. KenPom: #33, Powerrank: #42, Seven Overtimes: #33, Nate Silver: #33, and by my overall model, we rank #35. Compare this to:

• The other First Four at-large teams:
• Xavier: #40
• San Diego St: #41
• Texas: #47
• And the other first few teams out:
• Boise St: #42
• Colorado St: #44
• Indiana: #46
• West Virginia: #50
• UC Irvine: #55

Alternatively, our play is evidence Brett Yormark is wrong and we absolutely should not expand the NCAA tournament! 

Given that 68 teams get in (for now), we deserved to be one of them. Credit to @wagner_seymour and @michaelwatson2:

Now the bracket math. Note: For simplicity, I've taken the highest rated team in each play-in game and included them

Seed	Team	1st Round	2nd Round	Sweet 16	Elite 8	Final Four	Championship	Champion
	South
1	Auburn	100.00%	99.33%	74.82%	57.12%	40.41%	24.17%	13.97%
16*	Alabama St.	100.00%	0.67%	0.03%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
8	Louisville	100.00%	57.97%	16.10%	8.83%	4.25%	1.58%	0.55%
9	Creighton	100.00%	42.03%	9.06%	4.25%	1.72%	0.52%	0.15%
5	Michigan	100.00%	58.79%	32.00%	10.20%	4.69%	1.66%	0.55%
12	UC San Diego	100.00%	41.21%	18.93%	4.68%	1.76%	0.49%	0.13%
4	Texas A&M	100.00%	73.29%	40.64%	13.61%	6.51%	2.40%	0.84%
13	Yale	100.00%	26.71%	8.42%	1.30%	0.33%	0.06%	0.01%
6	Ole Miss	100.00%	55.92%	27.54%	12.28%	4.40%	1.52%	0.49%
11*	North Carolina	100.00%	44.08%	19.25%	7.50%	2.30%	0.68%	0.19%
3	Iowa St.	100.00%	81.44%	48.43%	24.88%	10.47%	4.28%	1.65%
14	Lipscomb	100.00%	18.56%	4.77%	0.96%	0.14%	0.02%	0.00%
7	Marquette	100.00%	54.44%	22.56%	10.84%	3.79%	1.28%	0.40%
10	New Mexico	100.00%	45.56%	17.05%	7.46%	2.32%	0.70%	0.19%
2	Michigan St.	100.00%	89.90%	58.50%	35.76%	16.88%	7.77%	3.40%
15	Bryant	100.00%	10.10%	1.90%	0.32%	0.03%	0.00%	0.00%
	West
1	Florida	100.00%	98.07%	81.12%	61.26%	43.93%	28.61%	17.26%
16	Norfolk St.	100.00%	1.93%	0.26%	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
8	Connecticut	100.00%	58.89%	12.33%	5.48%	2.16%	0.71%	0.21%
9	Oklahoma	100.00%	41.11%	6.30%	2.27%	0.71%	0.19%	0.04%
5	Memphis	100.00%	57.62%	25.21%	6.79%	2.76%	0.95%	0.28%
12	Colorado St.	100.00%	42.38%	15.59%	3.34%	1.12%	0.31%	0.07%
4	Maryland	100.00%	83.02%	54.28%	20.27%	10.73%	4.95%	2.02%
13	Grand Canyon	100.00%	16.98%	4.91%	0.57%	0.11%	0.02%	0.00%
6	Missouri	100.00%	62.70%	30.42%	13.90%	4.80%	1.88%	0.64%
11	Drake	100.00%	37.30%	13.68%	4.59%	1.11%	0.31%	0.07%
3	Texas Tech	100.00%	84.24%	52.05%	27.48%	11.26%	5.19%	2.13%
14	UNC Wilmington	100.00%	15.76%	3.85%	0.70%	0.09%	0.01%	0.00%
7	Kansas	100.00%	64.90%	28.38%	14.09%	4.93%	1.96%	0.68%
10	Arkansas	100.00%	35.10%	10.61%	3.73%	0.86%	0.23%	0.05%
2	St. John's	100.00%	93.48%	60.15%	35.42%	15.44%	7.53%	3.28%
15	Omaha	100.00%	6.52%	0.86%	0.09%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%
	East
1	Duke	100.00%	98.75%	81.14%	63.18%	43.15%	28.10%	17.18%
16*	American	100.00%	1.25%	0.12%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
8	Mississippi St.	100.00%	49.82%	9.31%	4.20%	1.41%	0.44%	0.12%
9	Baylor	100.00%	50.18%	9.44%	4.28%	1.45%	0.45%	0.12%
5	Oregon	100.00%	59.80%	24.98%	5.83%	1.92%	0.58%	0.16%
12	Liberty	100.00%	40.20%	13.26%	2.25%	0.56%	0.12%	0.02%
4	Arizona	100.00%	81.45%	55.48%	19.53%	9.16%	4.00%	1.59%
13	Akron	100.00%	18.55%	6.28%	0.72%	0.12%	0.02%	0.00%
6	BYU	100.00%	48.89%	22.52%	8.15%	2.58%	0.92%	0.29%
11	VCU	100.00%	51.11%	24.07%	8.96%	2.92%	1.07%	0.35%
3	Wisconsin	100.00%	89.09%	51.74%	22.92%	8.96%	3.91%	1.55%
14	Montana	100.00%	10.91%	1.66%	0.16%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%
7	St. Mary's	100.00%	72.62%	28.14%	14.67%	5.44%	2.25%	0.85%
10	Vanderbilt	100.00%	27.38%	5.46%	1.61%	0.30%	0.06%	0.01%
2	Alabama	100.00%	93.51%	65.28%	43.37%	21.99%	12.26%	6.33%
15	Robert Morris	100.00%	6.49%	1.12%	0.16%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%
	Midwest
1	Houston	100.00%	98.27%	66.08%	49.23%	33.12%	18.77%	10.69%
16	SIU Edwardsville	100.00%	1.73%	0.09%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
8	Gonzaga	100.00%	67.96%	26.43%	16.90%	9.45%	4.25%	1.92%
9	Georgia	100.00%	32.04%	7.40%	3.41%	1.30%	0.37%	0.11%
5	Clemson	100.00%	71.57%	42.53%	14.94%	7.09%	2.61%	0.97%
12	McNeese St.	100.00%	28.43%	10.76%	1.88%	0.51%	0.10%	0.02%
4	Purdue	100.00%	74.06%	39.16%	12.58%	5.56%	1.88%	0.64%
13	High Point	100.00%	25.94%	7.54%	1.04%	0.23%	0.03%	0.01%
6	Illinois	100.00%	59.21%	31.72%	13.39%	4.94%	1.67%	0.57%
11*	Xavier	100.00%	40.79%	18.27%	6.18%	1.79%	0.47%	0.12%
3	Kentucky	100.00%	80.29%	45.17%	20.15%	7.90%	2.85%	1.03%
14	Troy	100.00%	19.71%	4.84%	0.84%	0.12%	0.01%	0.00%
7	UCLA	100.00%	60.19%	21.23%	10.31%	3.49%	1.08%	0.33%
10	Utah St.	100.00%	39.81%	10.70%	4.13%	1.05%	0.24%	0.05%
2	Tennessee	100.00%	90.91%	65.94%	44.57%	23.39%	11.48%	5.67%
15	Wofford	100.00%	9.09%	2.13%	0.42%	0.05%	0.00%	0.00%
	Totals	64.00	32.00	16.00	8.00	4.00	2.00	1.00
Seed	Team	1st Round
16*	Alabama St.	53.41%
16*	St. Francis	46.59%
16*	American	52.12%
16*	Mount St. Mary's	47.88%
11*	San Diego St.	46.16%
11*	North Carolina	53.84%
11*	Texas	41.87%
11*	Xavier	58.13%

Some notes:

• A super chalky bracket, with all four 1-seeds favored to make the Final Four, and all at 40%+ with the exception of Houston
• This is thanks to Gonzaga (#7 in my rating) as Houston's likely second round opponent
• These four 1-seeds are the only teams with > 10% to win it all, with Florida, Dook, and Auburn a step above (in that order (barely))
• Dook is BARELY the highest rated team, but has a slightly harder route (Caleb Love or Grant Nelson, please) and comes in less than 0.1% lower in chances to win it all because of it
• The relative strength/weakness of the two 1 seeds facing play-in 16 seeds is very elevated - Auburn and Dook both have 99% chance of moving on (hoping for a jinx here)

Full rankings:

Rank	Seed	Team	Rating
1	1	Duke	94.77
2	1	Florida	94.70
3	1	Auburn	93.76
4	1	Houston	93.20
5	2	Alabama	91.24
6	2	Tennessee	90.41
7	8	Gonzaga	88.89
8	2	Michigan St.	88.66
9	2	St. John's	88.58
10	4	Maryland	87.59
11	3	Texas Tech	87.59
12	4	Arizona	86.85
13	3	Wisconsin	86.82
14	3	Iowa St.	86.73
15	7	St. Mary's	86.01
16	5	Clemson	85.82
17	3	Kentucky	85.51
18	8	Louisville	85.34
19	4	Texas A&M	85.23
20	7	Kansas	85.23
21	6	Missouri	85.04
22	4	Purdue	84.64
23	6	Illinois	84.62
24	5	Michigan	84.58
25	6	Ole Miss	84.30
26	11	VCU	84.16
27	7	Marquette	83.95
28	6	BYU	83.77
29	7	UCLA	83.42
30	5	Memphis	83.18
31	8	Connecticut	82.75
32	9	Creighton	82.54
33	10	New Mexico	82.40
34	9	Georgia	82.39
35	11	North Carolina	82.22
37	8	Mississippi St.	81.89
36	9	Baylor	81.95
38	5	Oregon	81.62
39	12	UC San Diego	81.48
40	11	Xavier	81.37
41	11	San Diego St.	80.88
42	11	Drake	80.52
43	12	Colorado St.	80.50
44	10	Arkansas	79.89
45	10	Utah St.	79.82
46	9	Oklahoma	79.62
47	11	Texas	78.50
48	12	Liberty	78.16
49	12	McNeese St.	77.87
50	10	Vanderbilt	77.62
51	13	Yale	76.56
52	13	High Point	75.64
53	13	Akron	74.37
54	13	Grand Canyon	74.27
55	14	Lipscomb	74.26
56	14	Troy	73.62
57	14	UNC Wilmington	73.58
58	15	Wofford	71.78
59	15	Bryant	70.86
60	15	Robert Morris	70.11
61	14	Montana	69.64
62	15	Omaha	67.48
63	16	Norfolk St.	65.85
64	16	SIU Edwardsville	63.71
65	16	American	63.49
66	16	Mount St. Mary's	62.75
67	16	Alabama St.	59.26
68	16	St. Francis	58.07