Preseason NCAAB Ratings

College basketball is BACK! And this year I've tried to do what I do for college football, where I adjust my end-of-season Composite ratings by metrics such as player turnover and recruiting classes. As KenPom has illustrated, the upcoming season is best projected by the past few seasons for a given program. As he describes it, "In the most general sense, the main ingredient in the system is inertia. If a team has been good in the recent past, it’s likely to be rated well in the preseason."

With that in mind, I actually don't take into account recruiting for college basketball; instead, my main adjustment is based on the percentage of returning possession-minutes (that link is to an ESPN Insider article, so here's a quick rundown as described in the article): "Basically it's the percentage of minutes that a player is on the floor, multiplied by the percentage of possessions he used last season (as seen at KenPom.com)."

This ultimately gives a weighted representation of how much experience is returning from last year's team for each school, which I then use to adjust my Composite ratings. Here are my projected Top 25:

1	Virginia	0.915
2	Kansas	0.882
3	Villanova	0.879
4	North Carolina	0.877
5	Gonzaga	0.868
6	Utah	0.850
7	Wisconsin	0.847
8	Baylor	0.844
9	Iowa State	0.842
10	Wichita State	0.838
11	Cincinnati	0.833
12	Arizona	0.833
13	Oklahoma	0.830
14	Kentucky	0.828
15	VCU	0.825
16	SMU	0.824
17	Duke	0.814
18	Texas	0.800
19	Michigan State	0.798
20	Notre Dame	0.797
21	Davidson	0.785
22	Northern Iowa	0.784
23	Tulsa	0.780
24	Xavier	0.774
25	Indiana	0.773