Preseason NCAAF Rankings for 2017

As I did last year, the year before, and the year before that, I've created a new set of preseason NCAAF rankings that take into account player turnover and recruiting classes. The following is literally copied and pasted from last year's write-up so you don't have to click that first link:

As before, I used my final Composite ratings from the MDS Model (from last season) as the base (which takes into account both a forward-looking predictive component and a past-performance only retrodictive component), and then factored in ESPN's Preseason FPI and the S&P+ projections, both of which take into account player changes on each team. Once the season starts, this "preseason" rating will be faded out as the season progresses, carrying less and less weight with each ensuing week.

In the below list, the "Trend" indicates whether the respective team's new ranking rose or fell relative to the average of last year's end-of-season Composite ratings. We have two new team's this year: Coastal Carolina (moving up from FCS) and UAB (welcome back!). 

Rank	Team	PRESEASON	Trend
1	Alabama	0.924	UP
2	Ohio State	0.863	UP
3	Oklahoma	0.854	DOWN
4	Florida State	0.841	UP
5	Clemson	0.840	DOWN
6	LSU	0.800	UP
7	USC	0.770	UP
8	Michigan	0.767	DOWN
9	Stanford	0.761	UP
10	Washington	0.744	UP
11	Notre Dame	0.731	DOWN
12	Florida	0.728	UP
13	Tennessee	0.721	DOWN
14	Wisconsin	0.715	UP
15	Auburn	0.713	UP
16	Penn State	0.711	UP
17	Ole Miss	0.703	DOWN
18	TCU	0.702	UP
19	Georgia	0.701	UP
20	Louisville	0.695	UP
21	Oklahoma State	0.694	DOWN
22	Oregon	0.684	UP
23	UCLA	0.676	DOWN
24	Texas A&M	0.668	UP
25	Baylor	0.664	DOWN
26	North Carolina	0.663	DOWN
27	Miami (FL)	0.658	UP
28	Mississippi State	0.647	DOWN
29	Arkansas	0.643	DOWN
30	Michigan State	0.638	DOWN
31	Texas	0.634	UP
32	North Carolina State	0.630	UP
33	Iowa	0.629	DOWN
34	Washington State	0.620	UP
35	Pittsburgh	0.617	DOWN
36	Northwestern	0.604	UP
37	Houston	0.603	DOWN
38	Virginia Tech	0.603	UP
39	Brigham Young	0.601	DOWN
40	Boise State	0.600	DOWN
41	Utah	0.600	DOWN
42	Nebraska	0.588	DOWN
43	South Florida	0.586	DOWN
44	West Virginia	0.582	DOWN
45	Memphis	0.571	DOWN
46	Georgia Tech	0.566	UP
47	Kansas State	0.562	UP
48	San Diego State	0.562	DOWN
49	Western Kentucky	0.561	DOWN
50	Appalachian State	0.556	DOWN
51	Toledo	0.554	DOWN
52	California	0.553	DOWN
53	Texas Tech	0.553	DOWN
54	Arizona State	0.553	DOWN
55	Navy	0.542	DOWN
56	South Carolina	0.541	UP
57	Temple	0.528	DOWN
58	Arizona	0.527	DOWN
59	Duke	0.527	UP
60	Missouri	0.526	UP
61	Minnesota	0.525	DOWN
62	Indiana	0.525	UP
63	Syracuse	0.516	UP
64	Kentucky	0.508	UP
65	Western Michigan	0.506	DOWN
66	Vanderbilt	0.504	UP
67	Colorado	0.503	UP
68	Cincinnati	0.484	DOWN
69	Iowa State	0.476	UP
70	Wake Forest	0.471	UP
71	Virginia	0.462	UP
72	Colorado State	0.461	UP
73	Tulsa	0.460	UP
74	Southern Miss	0.457	DOWN
75	Bowling Green	0.456	DOWN
76	Boston College	0.454	UP
77	Maryland	0.454	UP
78	Oregon State	0.451	UP
79	Utah State	0.450	DOWN
80	Marshall	0.448	DOWN
81	Arkansas State	0.447	DOWN
82	Louisiana Tech	0.447	DOWN
83	Central Michigan	0.435	DOWN
84	Northern Illinois	0.433	DOWN
85	Air Force	0.426	DOWN
86	Illinois	0.425	DOWN
87	Georgia Southern	0.421	DOWN
88	Middle Tennessee	0.417	DOWN
89	Troy	0.405	UP
90	East Carolina	0.402	DOWN
91	Ohio	0.392	DOWN
92	Rutgers	0.391	DOWN
93	Purdue	0.390	DOWN
94	Southern Methodist	0.384	UP
95	UCF	0.365	UP
96	New Mexico	0.365	DOWN
97	San Jose State	0.358	DOWN
98	Nevada	0.355	DOWN
99	Wyoming	0.353	UP
100	Connecticut	0.344	DOWN
101	Florida Atlantic	0.343	DOWN
102	Ball State	0.335	UP
103	Georgia State	0.334	DOWN
104	Old Dominion	0.332	UP
105	Miami (OH)	0.332	UP
106	Akron	0.328	DOWN
107	UTSA	0.315	UP
108	Army	0.311	UP
109	Louisiana-Lafayette	0.311	UP
110	Tulane	0.310	UP
111	Fresno State	0.303	UP
112	Florida International	0.300	DOWN
113	UNLV	0.297	UP
114	South Alabama	0.297	UP
115	Massachusetts	0.293	UP
116	Eastern Michigan	0.289	UP
117	Idaho	0.286	DOWN
118	Kansas	0.285	UP
119	Buffalo	0.282	DOWN
120	Kent State	0.275	DOWN
121	Hawaii	0.270	UP
122	Rice	0.270	DOWN
123	New Mexico State	0.265	UP
124	North Texas	0.244	UP
125	UTEP	0.234	DOWN
126	Louisiana-Monroe	0.230	UP
127	Texas State	0.205	DOWN
128	Coastal Carolina	0.196	UP
129	Charlotte	0.193	UP
130	UAB	0.130	UP