Best/Worst 4 Year Stretches in UNC Program History

Looking back at my four years attending North Carolina, it felt that I got fairly unlucky over the exact four year stretch I was there with respect to the men's basketball team's success, overlapping with the 2012 to 2015 NCAA tournaments. Three years prior, we won a title in 2009, and the the year after I left we lost in the championship game (winning another title the year after that). The furthest we advanced was the Elite Eight in 2012, so if my college career had been shifted by three years in either direction, I would have been there for a title.

I looked back to determine how low of a four year stretch my college career oversaw. While critical metrics like win percentage or how often we beat Dook matter a lot, the barometer I'll be using is how much success the teams had in the NCAA tournament. To calculate this, I assigned point values to each round, with a championship win getting a max score of 7, a championship game loss a 6, Final Four a 5, etc down to a first round exit worth 1 point and NIT/no postseason worth 0. I went back to 1975, when the tournament field expanded to 32 teams.

It turns out my graduating year (2015) ranked in a 5-way tie for 33rd out of 44 seasons by this calculation, and 35th by win percentage. So pretty far down the list, but not second to last like this year's senior class has witnessed (losing in the first round for the first time in Roy's career, plus of course a global pandemic) or the period around the Doherty years.

#2 though: 1983, the year my dad graduated from Carolina, and the #1 four year stretch in modern program history: 1984, the year my mom graduated from Carolina. Both of which witnessed Michael Jordan make the game winner in the 1982 title game.

FourYearPeriod	Coach	Postseason	RankTournament	RunTotal	RankWinPer	RunWinPer
1983–84	Smith	NCAA Regional Semifinal	1	20	1	85.15%
1982–83	Smith	NCAA Regional Final	2	19	11	80.67%
1984–85	Smith	NCAA Regional Final	3	18	4	84.30%
1992–93	Smith	NCAA Championship	3	18	28	75.95%
2007–08	Williams	NCAA National Semifinal	3	18	3	84.32%
2008–09	Williams	NCAA Championship	3	18	2	84.39%
2016–17	Williams	NCAA Championship	3	18	27	76.00%
2017–18	Williams	NCAA Second Round	3	18	29	75.92%
2018–19	Williams	NCAA Regional Semifinal	3	18	18	78.96%
1981–82	Smith	NCAA Championship	10	17	10	81.06%
1993–94	Smith	NCAA Second Round	10	17	12	80.51%
1994–95	Smith	NCAA National Semifinal	10	17	13	80.38%
1997–98	Guthridge	NCAA National Semifinal	10	17	15	79.36%
1995–96	Smith	NCAA Second Round	14	16	15	79.36%
1999–00	Guthridge	NCAA National Semifinal	14	16	32	75.29%
2009–10	Williams	NIT Runner-Up	14	16	17	79.35%
2010–11	Williams	NCAA Regional Final	14	16	19	78.55%
1987–88	Smith	NCAA Regional Final	18	15	7	81.41%
1990–91	Smith	NCAA National Semifinal	18	15	31	75.60%
2006–07	Williams	NCAA Regional Final	18	15	22	77.07%
2011–12	Williams	NCAA Regional Final	18	15	24	76.53%
1985–86	Smith	NCAA Regional Semifinal	22	14	8	81.36%
1986–87	Smith	NCAA Regional Final	22	14	5	84.14%
1988–89	Smith	NCAA Regional Semifinal	22	14	6	82.26%
1989–90	Smith	NCAA Regional Semifinal	22	14	21	77.11%
1991–92	Smith	NCAA Regional Semifinal	22	14	34	73.17%
1996–97	Smith	NCAA National Semifinal	22	14	23	76.99%
1998–99	Guthridge	NCAA First Round	28	13	25	76.42%
2000–01	Doherty	NCAA Second Round	28	13	33	74.99%
2015–16	Williams	NCAA Runner-Up	28	13	36	72.74%
2013–14	Williams	NCAA Third Round	31	12	30	75.66%
2019–20	Williams	—	31	12	39	68.94%
1977–78	Smith	NCAA First Round	33	11	14	79.86%
1979–80	Smith	NCAA Second Round	33	11	20	77.69%
1980–81	Smith	NCAA Runner-Up	33	11	26	76.07%
2005–06	Williams	NCAA Second Round	33	11	38	70.25%
2014–15	Williams	NCAA Regional Semifinal	33	11	35	73.17%
1978–79	Smith	NCAA Second Round	38	10	9	81.14%
2012–13	Williams	NCAA Third Round	38	10	37	71.52%
2004–05	Williams	NCAA Championship	40	9	42	58.84%
2001–02	Doherty	—	41	8	41	59.76%
2002–03	Doherty	NIT Quarterfinals	42	7	44	55.69%
2020–21	Williams	NCAA First Round	43	6	40	64.15%
2003–04	Williams	NCAA Second Round	44	4	43	56.24%

"What are the odds?" Of Any In-State Team, or All #1 Seeds, Reaching the Final Four

While tickets are not available yet on Ticketmaster (or most of the secondary), the Final Four is on track to be a less premium event than normal (pandemic aside). Using my past six seasons of predicted brackets from the MDS Model, we can calculate the odds of a team from within the host state reaching the Final Four, or all four #1 seeds making it to the semifinals, which has only occurred once before, in 2008.

Usually there's a decent chance of an in-state team (this year, from Indiana) reaching the Final Four, but this year Purdue is the only team from the state in this year’s field, resulting in lower than normal chances of at least one school from the home state reaching the Final Four: 

The probability of all 1-seeds reaching the Final Four, on the other hand, is higher than normal - the second highest in recent years. This is largely boosted by Gonzaga, which has a 52.7% chance of reaching the Final Four (30-35% for the 1-seed is average). Even then, this is dwarfed by 2015, which was buoyed largely by Kentucky (78.5%, by far the highest ever in my model, and actually broke it in 2015).