NBA Playoffs 2025 Bracket Math (Post Play-In)

The streak continues again - no regular season 7 seed has failed to make the playoffs in the play-in era. This year, a 10 seed finally made the playoffs, featuring the Miami Heat. However, their run should end shortly, with only a 5% chance of beating Cleveland.

OKC is an absolute dominant favorite - over 50% chance of winning the title seems aggressive, but they did have the best point differential in the history of the NBA (+12.9). This feels similar to 2019, when models had Milwaukee as a dominant favorite, no one really seemed to trust it, and Toronto swooped in and won the title. Could say the same thing last season though - Boston was dominant in the regular season, no one really seemed to trust it, and they didn't really meet much resistance throughout the playoffs.

The bigger wrinkle this year is how tight the West is outside of OKC - other than Memphis getting steamrolled by them, I have all lower seeds advancing out of the first round in the West.

Including the top 2 seeds in the East, there is over a 90% chance one of the top 3 contenders wins it all (OKC, Boston, and then Cleveland). No one else has better than a ~1 in 50 shot.

NBA Play-In 2025 Bracket Math

The 7-seed has still never missed the playoffs in the play-in era, with two chances to win one home game to advance. 

This year is even more lopsided than normal, as my model has Golden State as the second strongest team in the West (way behind OKC though). Memphis is very strong as well, and both 7 and 8 in the West are far ahead of Sacramento and Dallas.

The East is more replacement level, with Miami projecting as the second best play-in team in the conference. But winning two games on the road back-to-back is a very tall order and results in an 80% chance they miss the playoffs.

NBA Finals 2024 Bracket Math

Going in to the playoffs, I only had 4 teams with > 5% chance of winning the title - Boston led the way with almost a 50/50 chance to raise another banner, whereas Dallas was barely on the radar, with the 12th best odds at 0.38%. Last year, Denver was barely above this 5% threshold, and ultimately steamrolled a Miami team that I gave a 0.1% chance of winning the championship at the start of last year's playoffs. Denver then had about a 60% edge last Finals on the back of an incredible playoff run by Nikola Jokic.

This season it's Luka Doncic's turn in the postseason, so I've based this season's Finals simulations off of playoff statistics only. This choice could seem to penalize Boston, as they have had much less impressive performances throughout these playoffs, compared to Dallas. Even so, they've only lost 2 games the entire postseason.

In Boston's favor, I am including Kristaps Porzingis at full-strength, and assuming his regular season workload, as he is not listed on the injury report and is expected to play in all games.

A lot has been made about how Dallas would be the 3rd biggest Finals upset in the modern era how Dallas would be the 3rd biggest Finals upset in the modern era - their odds are pegged at +185, or ~35%. 

And yet I actually have those market odds as overrating their chances:

# Games	BOS in...	DAL in...	Total
4	12.0%	2.7%	14.8%
5	21.7%	5.8%	27.5%
6	20.0%	9.6%	29.6%
7	18.1%	10.1%	28.2%
	71.9%	28.1%	100.0%

Ultimately I project Boston in 5. I have them as 7 point favorites (63% win probability) at home, and 3.5 point favorites (58% win probability) on the road. This adds up to a very large series probability.

A big question in this series is whether the top tier talent of Dallas can overwhelm Boston's depth. Dallas might have the 1st and 2nd best player, but Boston is far deeper at 3, 4, 5, 6, etc.

Luka may have the best projected stat line, but Tatum and Brown are consistently really good, and that, plus Boston's depth, results in Boston as a very strong favorite.

Name	Pos	Team	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Turnovers	Steals	Blocks
Luka Doncic	PG	DAL	30.2	8.4	9.2	3.6	1.7	0.2
Jayson Tatum	PF	BOS	29.9	9.8	6.5	2.2	1.5	0.3
Jaylen Brown	SF	BOS	24.6	5.8	3.2	2.4	1.4	0.3
Kyrie Irving	SG	DAL	24.6	3.8	6.6	2.5	1.4	0.2
Derrick White	SG	BOS	18.6	4.3	5.7	0.7	1.3	0.6
P.J. Washington	PF	DAL	14.9	6.6	1.9	1.4	1.1	0.3
Kristaps Porzingis	C	BOS	11.2	4.2	1.6	0.8	1.2	0.6
Daniel Gafford	C	DAL	10.5	5.5	0.9	1.0	0.3	0.7
Jrue Holiday	PG	BOS	10.4	4.7	4.4	1.3	1.4	0.3
Dereck Lively II	C	DAL	10.1	6.4	1.9	1.0	0.3	0.5
Derrick Jones Jr.	SF	DAL	9.6	3.2	1.6	0.9	0.5	0.4
Payton Pritchard	PG	BOS	7.4	2.2	2.6	0.7	0.3	0.0
Al Horford	C	BOS	7.2	5.3	1.7	0.5	0.7	0.3
Sam Hauser	SF	BOS	5.7	2.3	0.8	0.3	0.5	0.1
Josh Green	SF	DAL	5.4	2.4	1.4	0.4	0.8	0.1
Tim Hardaway Jr.	SF	DAL	3.1	1.1	0.3	0.1	0.3	0.0
Luke Kornet	C	BOS	2.5	1.8	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.1
Maxi Kleber	C	DAL	2.3	1.2	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.1
Dante Exum	PG	DAL	2.1	0.7	0.6	0.1	0.1	0.0
Xavier Tillman Sr.	C	BOS	0.5	0.7	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.0

Clark vs DeJean, A Fairly Competitive Game of One-on-One

A follow-up to my post, "Lavar vs Jordan, An Incredibly Lopsided Game of One-on-One". Cooper DeJean, professional football player and former Iowa Hawkeye, made headlines when he declared he could win a game of one-on-one against Caitlin Clark, professional basketball player and former Iowa Hawkeye.

Setting aside Austin Rivers's commentary on the crossover appeal of basketball/football players, Clark holds the all-time points record in both men's and women's college basketball. DeJean was a very good high school basketball player though, scoring more points in the state of Iowa than Carolina great Harrison Barnes, and recording more steals in the state of Iowa than Carolina great Marcus Paige.

So I set out to simulate DeJean's claim that if he lost, it would be by one or two. Using Clark's college senior year statistics at Iowa, compared to DeJean's high school senior year statistics at OABCIG, I simulated a game to 21 by ones and twos.

And he's right! I have Caitlin Clark winning 53.5% of the time by an average score of 21 to 20 - a very evenly matched game.

Notwithstanding the relative quality of competition, DeJean's high school statistics are fairly comparable to Clark's last year at Iowa - but where Clark wins out is her 3-Point Attempt Rate. Not her 3 Point percentage - Clark shot 37.8% her (college) senior year, compared to DeJean's 39.5%. But 60% of Clark's field goal attempts were threes - a ridiculously high volume compared to DeJean's 21.5%. 

Especially in a game of ones and twos, Clark's range and 3-point volume would give her the edge.

NBA Playoffs 2024 Bracket Math (Post Play-In)

The streak continues - no regular season 7 seed has failed to make the playoffs in the play-in era. However, this year's iteration came at great cost to the respective teams, both losing arguably their best player - Zion Williamson for New Orleans and Jimmy Butler for Miami appear to be looking at lengthy absences. 

But the playoffs are set, and there is one very clear favorite - Boston, with their dominant regular season, is almost 50/50 to win it all - more than the next 3 teams combined (Denver, OKC, and Minnesota).

Denver feels too low, even though they coasted through much of the regular season. And I think if you talk to just about any Boston fan, even with their historic season to date, they would agree Boston feels too high. Miami has the chance to do the funniest thing ever and beat Boston without Butler (10% chance).

Home court also matters! Note I have Philly rated higher than New York, but the Knicks are still a slight favorite in the first round.

The above reflects a lot less parity than last year, with only 4 teams with > 5% chance of winning the Finals (Boston, Denver, OKC, and Minnesota). Last year I had 8 teams meet this threshold - the lowest of which was Denver, who looked pretty unbeatable on the way to the championship.

Any other result other than these 4 teams would be surprising - combined, they raise the banner 88% of the time.

NBA Play-In 2024 Bracket Math

As always, winning 2 games in a row is really hard - just like it was last year, when both the 7 and 8 seeds ultimately made the playoffs. No 7 seed has ever ultimately missed the playoffs since the play-in began in 2021.

This year is no different - while the 7 and 8 in the East are clearly superior teams, the second best play-in team in the West is the 10 seed Golden State Warriors.

But they have to win twice in a row, on the road - and thus have the worst odds of making the playoffs out of the West.

This also speaks to how perilous a strategy it would be for the Lakers to intentionally lose the first play-in game to avoid Denver in the first round (something that has been suggested).

Even setting aside that I have the Nuggets rated lower than the Thunder, the Lakers would only have about a 55% chance to beat either the Kings or Warriors in a single game. That leaves 45% where they completely miss the playoffs - so the difference in beating OKC over Denver would have to be massive to maximize "likelihood to win the title".

NBA Finals 2023 Bracket Math

Once the playoff bracket was set, and Miami barely got in to the field as the 8 seed, I gave them just a 0.7% chance to make the Finals, and only 0.1% to win the title. Out of 10,000 simulations, that's roughly 10 wins. That's it.

Their chances are a lot higher now! And their impressive abnormal(?) performance in the postseason necessitates a few assumptions to be changed in my play-by-play simulation of the Finals. I mean, I had them as the worst rated team in the field - and they did have a negative point differential in the regular season!

Per current injury reporting, I'm assuming Tyler Herro comes back for Game 3, while other injuries (like Victor Oladipo) eliminate those players from the series. I'm taking in to account Denver's significant home court advantage, which I've analyzed before, and so has Zach Lowe and others at ESPN.

The final component I had to decide on - do I use regular season data to underpin the model, or each team's postseason performance?

I didn't exactly have Denver as a juggernaut before the playoffs - they were the 4th strongest team in the West, behind Phoenix, Golden State, and Memphis. And when I use regular season only, I get a competitive series, with Denver as a slight favorite:

# Games	DEN in...	MIA in...
4	8.2%	4.9%
5	15.3%	9.5%
6	17.6%	13.3%
7	17.3%	14.0%
	58.3%	41.7%

But the Heat have been on a run for the ages, and their "new normal" is maybe this elevated postseason play. So I reran everything off of playoff statistics only... only to see Denver strengthen:

# Games	DEN in...	MIA in...
4	7.8%	4.3%
5	17.1%	8.5%
6	16.0%	14.6%
7	18.7%	12.9%
	59.6%	40.4%

Denver's chances as the favorite actually increase. My results aren't as aggressive as the betting markets (80%) and FiveThirtyEight, which has Denver as a 74% favorite. 

Ultimately I project Denver in 7 (I was wrong last year, when I had Boston in 6).

While Jimmy Butler has been otherworldly, Nikola Jokic has been even more dominant. Here is the projected average box score, using the playoff data as the input:

Name	Pos	Team	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Turnovers	Steals	Blocks
Nikola Jokic	C	DEN	34.1	12.6	12.0	3.6	1.5	0.4
Jimmy Butler	PF	MIA	25.5	5.7	5.5	1.5	1.9	0.3
Tyler Herro	SG	MIA	20.9	5.6	5.5	2.3	1.0	0.2
Bam Adebayo	C	MIA	17.7	8.8	4.4	2.4	1.2	0.4
Jamal Murray	PG	DEN	17.4	3.1	4.5	1.3	1.2	0.1
Michael Porter Jr.	SF	DEN	15.1	7.4	2.1	0.5	0.9	0.3
Aaron Gordon	PF	DEN	12.7	4.2	2.4	0.9	0.5	0.3
Bruce Brown	SF	DEN	11.3	3.1	2.2	0.8	1.1	0.1
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	SG	DEN	9.5	2.4	1.5	0.6	1.2	0.2
Duncan Robinson	SF	MIA	8.1	1.5	2.1	0.8	0.5	0.0
Caleb Martin	SF	MIA	7.8	3.1	1.2	0.6	0.6	0.1
Kevin Love	PF	MIA	7.8	5.5	1.8	0.7	0.5	0.2
Max Strus	SF	MIA	7.4	2.3	0.9	0.2	0.4	0.1
Gabe Vincent	PG	MIA	6.9	1.0	2.4	0.8	0.6	0.1
Kyle Lowry	PG	MIA	5.6	1.9	3.0	1.0	0.7	0.3
Ish Smith	PG	DEN	5.4	2.0	4.4	1.8	0.4	0.1
Jeff Green	PF	DEN	4.8	1.9	0.8	0.5	0.3	0.2
Cody Zeller	C	MIA	2.8	2.3	0.4	0.6	0.2	0.1
Christian Braun	SG	DEN	2.8	1.7	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.1
DeAndre Jordan	C	DEN	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.2	0.0	0.0

Jokic averages a triple double in the Finals 52.4% of the time. That's insane. I have him dropping 50+ 2.7% of the time, compared to 0.2% for Butler, and 0.01% for Jamal Murray (no other player recorded 50+ once in any simulation).

Compared to regular season data as the input:

Name	Pos	Team	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Turnovers	Steals	Blocks
Jimmy Butler	PF	MIA	26.0	5.5	6.2	1.4	2.3	0.2
Nikola Jokic	C	DEN	25.6	10.4	11.7	3.4	1.4	0.3
Bam Adebayo	C	MIA	25.5	10.3	4.5	2.7	1.8	0.5
Jamal Murray	PG	DEN	18.1	3.2	6.4	1.8	1.0	0.1
Aaron Gordon	PF	DEN	17.3	5.5	3.4	1.3	0.9	0.4
Tyler Herro	SG	MIA	16.2	4.3	4.3	1.8	0.8	0.1
Michael Porter Jr.	SF	DEN	14.7	4.2	1.1	0.9	0.6	0.2
Max Strus	SF	MIA	11.8	3.4	2.7	0.9	0.8	0.1
Bruce Brown	SF	DEN	10.9	3.2	3.4	1.3	1.1	0.3
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	SG	DEN	10.2	2.2	2.5	1.0	1.4	0.2
Caleb Martin	SF	MIA	9.2	4.2	1.9	1.0	1.2	0.2
Kyle Lowry	PG	MIA	7.9	2.6	4.1	1.2	0.9	0.1
Gabe Vincent	PG	MIA	7.9	1.7	2.5	1.0	1.0	0.0
Jeff Green	PF	DEN	7.8	2.1	1.2	0.7	0.3	0.1
Christian Braun	SG	DEN	5.3	2.2	0.9	0.5	0.6	0.1
Duncan Robinson	SF	MIA	4.8	1.2	0.9	0.4	0.3	0.0
DeAndre Jordan	C	DEN	3.5	2.8	0.6	0.8	0.3	0.2
Kevin Love	PF	MIA	3.3	2.0	0.9	0.4	0.3	0.0
Cody Zeller	C	MIA	2.0	1.0	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
Ish Smith	PG	DEN	1.9	0.7	1.6	0.7	0.2	0.0

Bam regresses quite a bit using playoffs only, Butler and Murray are both actually quite consistent, but Jokic rocketing up the leaderboard is the difference.