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Saturday, April 15, 2023

NBA Playoffs 2023 Bracket Math (Post Play-In)

The NBA playoff field is set, and as expected, the 7 and 8 seeds in each conference ultimately made the playoffs - just not in the order we expected with Atlanta/Miami.


Miami and Minnesota (the two finalized 8 seeds) are both easily the weakest teams in the postseason, with both rating worse than an "average" .500 team.

As such, both 1 seeds get easier routes out of the first round, which really helps Milwaukee - however, with Boston being the (slightly) stronger team, we now end up with the weird wrinkle where Milwaukee is marginally more likely to make the Finals, but Boston is the single most likely champion. In short, it's a coin flip between Milwaukee and Boston out of the East, and as the likely winner.

There will likely be a champion out of Boston, Milwaukee, and Phoenix, in that order, with Memphis the only other team with better tan a 1 in 10 chance to win the whole thing.

This is the most parity the postseason has had in years - even more so than the 2020 bubble.

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