NHL Playoffs 2026 Bracket Math

It's been a few years since I've simulated an NHL bracket, but went ahead and adapted my NBA simulator to run on this year's Stanley Cup playoffs.

• Colorado is pretty dominant, but a different team still wins the title 80%+ of the time
• They're the only team easily over 60% to advance out of round 1
• Four teams combine for over 50%: Colorado, Carolina, Dallas, and Buffalo (in order)
• Utah looks like the best wild card poised to potentially make a deep run
• Only a 14% chance Canada's Stanley Cup drought since 1993 comes to an end

Team	Seed	Rating	Make Round 2	Make Conf Finals	Make Finals	Win Finals
East
Carolina Hurricanes	M1	0.466	58.1%	36.4%	20.2%	11.8%
Buffalo Sabres	A1	0.445	60.7%	33.5%	19.0%	10.7%
Tampa Bay Lightning	A2	0.381	54.0%	27.7%	15.5%	8.8%
Pittsburgh Penguins	M2	0.210	55.1%	23.5%	10.1%	4.5%
Philadelphia Flyers	M3	0.114	44.9%	17.6%	6.7%	2.9%
Montreal Canadiens	A3	0.293	46.0%	21.6%	10.5%	5.0%
Boston Bruins	WC1	0.189	39.3%	17.2%	7.5%	3.5%
Ottawa Senators	WC2	0.290	41.9%	22.5%	10.5%	5.3%
West
Colorado Avalanche	C1	0.508	78.7%	44.7%	32.0%	18.2%
Vegas Golden Knights	P1	-0.050	41.4%	21.3%	6.7%	2.2%
Edmonton Oilers	P2	0.035	59.2%	28.4%	9.9%	3.4%
Dallas Stars	C2	0.432	57.4%	29.7%	19.7%	11.0%
Minnesota Wild	C3	0.281	42.6%	20.0%	12.0%	5.8%
Anaheim Ducks	P3	-0.175	40.8%	16.8%	4.4%	1.3%
Utah Mammoth	WC1	0.151	58.7%	33.5%	13.1%	5.1%
Los Angeles Kings	WC2	-0.214	21.3%	5.7%	2.3%	0.6%

NBA Playoffs 2026 Bracket Math (Post Play-In)

The 7-seed has still never missed the playoffs, but the play-in winners don't exactly strike fear in the top of each conference. 

I double-checked the model - San Antonio is in fact the favorite in my predictive model, and combined with OKC there is a slim chance any other team wins the title. San Antonio leads the way at ~40%, and OKC is right behind at ~30%. Combined they win over 2/3rds of the time. OKC was over 50% to win it last year, and they did so (although were pushed to 7 games by Indiana in the Finals).

Similarly, the East is extremely top-heavy, with Detroit + Boston getting out of the East a combined 88% of the time. Slight nod to Boston, who the model likes better with a healthy Jayson Tatum.

Over the top two seeds in each conference, the combined title odds are over 97%. Literally a 1 in 50 chance someone other than San Antonio/OKC/Boston/Detroit wins it all.

Team	Seed	Rating	Make Round 2	Make Conf Finals	Make Finals	Win Finals
East
Detroit Pistons	1	0.842	92.6%	79.7%	41.9%	12.6%
Boston Celtics	2	0.894	98.3%	77.0%	46.4%	16.6%
New York Knicks	3	0.655	81.2%	21.4%	8.5%	1.5%
Cleveland Cavaliers	4	0.483	74.0%	15.1%	2.6%	0.2%
Toronto Raptors	5	0.262	26.0%	2.4%	0.2%	0.0%
Atlanta Hawks	6	0.318	18.8%	1.5%	0.2%	0.0%
Philadelphia 76ers	7	0.031	1.7%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
Orlando Magic	8	0.291	7.4%	2.8%	0.2%	0.0%
West
Oklahoma City Thunder	1	0.987	97.3%	90.5%	43.4%	29.2%
San Antonio Spurs	2	1.068	99.5%	87.6%	52.9%	39.0%
Denver Nuggets	3	0.659	88.3%	12.2%	2.8%	0.8%
Los Angeles Lakers	4	0.374	42.6%	2.5%	0.1%	0.0%
Houston Rockets	5	0.466	57.4%	6.1%	0.7%	0.1%
Minnesota Timberwolves	6	0.203	11.7%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
Portland Trail Blazers	7	0.022	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
Phoenix Suns	8	0.232	2.8%	0.8%	0.0%	0.0%

NBA Play-In 2026 Bracket Math

We had a 10-seed make the playoffs for the first time last year, but still have never seen the 7 seed miss the playoffs with two chances to win one home game to get in.

This year doesn't look that much different, as the two 7 seeds have the best odds to get in. 

The East throws maybe the biggest wrench here - Charlotte is the first 9 or 10 seed in my model to have better than a 50/50 shot to take one of the two playoff spots, as they have the 7th (!!!) highest rating in the entire NBA, yet have to go 2-0 to make it. If Philadelphia loses their first game without Embiid, it's very possible they get caught by a red hot Charlotte team in a do-or-die game later this week.

Seed	Team	Rating	7 Seed	8 Seed	Playoffs
7	Philadelphia 76ers	0.031	53.9%	16.6%	70.5%
8	Orlando Magic	0.091	46.1%	20.8%	66.9%
9	Charlotte Hornets	0.599	0.0%	52.7%	52.7%
10	Miami Heat	0.086	0.0%	9.9%	9.9%
7	Phoenix Suns	0.232	66.2%	21.6%	87.8%
8	Portland Trail Blazers	0.022	33.8%	36.1%	69.9%
9	Los Angeles Clippers	0.167	0.0%	33.8%	33.8%
10	Golden State Warriors	-0.193	0.0%	8.5%	8.5%

Final Four per the MDS Model (2026)

And then there were two favorites remaining - 65% of the time, the champion will come from the right side of the bracket (Arizona + Michigan). Also 28% chance we are guaranteed a Big 10 champion for the first time since 2000 (Illinois + Michigan).

I've only recently correctly predicted the champion at this stage when it has been Connecticut. I did not get this right in either 2025 or 2024.

Michigan gets the nod here, barely, if they can survive a coin flip against Arizona:

Seed	Team	Championship	Champion
	Final Four
2	Connecticut	45.98%	15.06%
3	Illinois	54.02%	19.70%
1	Arizona	48.66%	31.44%
1	Michigan	51.34%	33.80%

No matter how you slice it, Arizona or Michigan would be a ~2/3rd favorite over whoever advances from Connecticut and Illinois:

Seed	Matchups	Title Game
2	Connecticut	33.37%
1	Arizona	66.63%
2	Connecticut	32.16%
1	Michigan	67.84%
3	Illinois	37.11%
1	Arizona	62.89%
3	Illinois	35.86%
1	Michigan	64.14%

Sweet 16 per the MDS Model (2026)

Going into the tournament, there were 3 standout teams: Duke, Michigan, and Arizona, who combined to win the title ~50% of the time. 

And that remains the case - bumping up their odds to 56% combined. Dook is slightly more likely than before play began, up to 22% as the favorite now. After the top 3, Houston has the best chance out of the South region, at 8%.

But now the real reason you're here, conference-based odds:

• Chances of the Big 10 winning its first title since 2000: 36% (Michigan St + Iowa + Nebraska + Illinois + Purdue + Michigan)
  
• Chances of an all Big 10 Final Four to guarantee this: 1.6%
• Chances of the ACC winning its 9th title since 2000: 22% (Duke)

Seed	Team	Elite 8	Final Four	Championship	Champion
	Sweet 16
1	Duke	74.44%	52.75%	36.45%	21.98%
5	St. John's	25.56%	11.68%	5.16%	1.82%
3	Michigan St.	48.91%	17.15%	8.20%	3.18%
2	Connecticut	51.09%	18.42%	9.00%	3.58%
9	Iowa	42.33%	13.38%	3.83%	1.08%
4	Nebraska	57.67%	22.36%	7.88%	2.75%
3	Illinois	46.01%	28.64%	12.54%	5.46%
2	Houston	53.99%	35.61%	16.94%	8.04%
1	Arizona	72.14%	50.27%	28.77%	16.79%
4	Arkansas	27.86%	13.33%	4.66%	1.68%
11	Texas	28.59%	6.48%	1.52%	0.37%
2	Purdue	71.41%	29.92%	12.84%	5.67%
1	Michigan	73.82%	48.27%	29.28%	17.45%
4	Alabama	26.18%	10.68%	3.91%	1.39%
6	Tennessee	36.74%	12.19%	4.56%	1.65%
2	Iowa St.	63.26%	28.87%	14.48%	7.10%