Simulating the 2026 World Cup: Semifinals

All four favorites advanced, leading to a heavyweight semifinals, and extremely, extremely level odds. The champion is once again guaranteed to be from Europe or South America.

Group	Country	MDS Rating	Final	Champion
I	France	2.09	45.09%	22.09%
H	Spain	2.29	54.91%	29.61%
L	England	2.00	44.36%	20.02%
J	Argentina	2.23	55.64%	28.28%

All four potential Final matchups are pretty equally likely as well, with each outcome a heavyweight matchup. Every matchup is close to 50/50:

Final	Matchup %	Champion Odds	Runnerup Odds
Spain vs Argentina	30.50%	Spain 51.5%	Argentina 48.5%
France vs Argentina	25.10%	Argentina 53.4%	France 46.6%
Spain vs England	24.30%	Spain 57.1%	England 42.9%
France vs England	20.10%	France 52.2%	England 47.8%

Simulating the 2026 World Cup: Quarterfinals

We are on to the quarterfinals, and the odds continue to coalesce around the favorites.

Argentina continues to cheat death, Spain got past Portugal to now emerge as the favorite, England gets a huge boost by surviving the Azteca, and then France continues to look like the best team in the tournament. This leaves us with these four countries with 15%+ to win, with the following increases relative to the start of the tournament:

• Argentina: +12%
• Spain: +11%
• France: +9%
• England: +9%

We are also up to a 94% chance the champion once again is from South America or Europe - only Morocco stands in the way now that all three hosts flamed out.

Group	Country	MDS Rating	Semis	Final	Champion	Delta
I	France	2.09	62.81%	32.00%	17.07%	9.38%
C	Morocco	1.57	37.19%	14.21%	5.76%	3.69%
H	Spain	2.29	67.24%	39.99%	23.06%	11.20%
G	Belgium	1.56	32.76%	13.79%	5.66%	3.42%
I	Norway	1.58	39.76%	15.81%	6.21%	4.22%
L	England	2.00	60.24%	30.14%	15.00%	8.64%
J	Argentina	2.23	66.58%	39.64%	21.67%	11.60%
B	Switzerland	1.53	33.42%	14.41%	5.58%	3.50%

Simulating the 2026 World Cup: Round of 16

We are on to the Round of 16, and the favorites have continued to win (for the most part) so there are no large changes in the overall odds.

Argentina's path to the final remains clear, but France's has also cleared considerably, up until Spain in the semifinal.

Biggest increases relative to the start of the tournament:

• Argentina: +6%
• France: +4%

It's still a wide open tournament, with no one better than ~16% odds to win it all. Argentina (16%), Spain (14%), and France (12%) remain the only teams above 10%. Egypt is the longest remaining longshot, with a 1% chance. 

Additionally, still an 82% chance the winner comes from Europe or South America, as has happened every single World Cup ever played. Of that 18% where it's not, the vast majority (14%) comes from the three hosts with some home field advantage: Mexico, United States, and Canada.

Group	Country	MDS Rating	Quarters	Semis	Final	Champion
D	Paraguay	1.33	31.78%	13.78%	4.83%	1.70%
I	France	2.09	68.22%	42.28%	22.57%	12.16%
B	Canada	1.22	51.29%	22.95%	9.18%	3.72%
C	Morocco	1.57	48.71%	20.99%	8.63%	3.53%
K	Portugal	1.93	41.22%	23.78%	12.83%	6.38%
H	Spain	2.29	58.78%	38.70%	24.14%	14.19%
D	United States	1.28	53.15%	20.64%	10.35%	4.39%
G	Belgium	1.56	46.85%	16.87%	7.49%	3.09%
C	Brazil	1.95	58.80%	29.59%	14.97%	7.67%
I	Norway	1.58	41.20%	17.15%	7.35%	3.12%
A	Mexico	1.44	45.89%	23.49%	11.26%	5.65%
L	England	2.00	54.11%	29.77%	15.41%	8.09%
J	Argentina	2.23	74.73%	46.63%	27.42%	15.83%
G	Egypt	1.15	25.27%	9.19%	3.02%	1.00%
B	Switzerland	1.53	42.11%	16.91%	7.00%	2.86%
K	Colombia	1.85	57.89%	27.27%	13.56%	6.64%

Simulating the 2026 World Cup: Knockout Edition

The knockout rounds are set, and because of the new extremely convoluted third place advancement rules (path 67 occurred, for those wondering), some teams have far easier paths than others.

Because of this, we have a new favorite - Argentina! Spain is still a contender like at the start, but two teams with 5%+ odds have jumped considerably (italicized below):

1. Argentina: 15% (+5%)
2. Spain: 11% (-1%)
3. France: 8% (+1%)
4. England: 7% (+1%)
5. Colombia: 6% (+2%)
6. Brazil: 5% (no change)

Argentina and Colombia got the soft half of the bracket:

Group	Country	MDS Rating	Round of 16	Quarters	Semis	Final	Champion
E	Germany	1.86	63.18%	32.19%	18.12%	9.22%	4.75%
D	Paraguay	1.33	36.83%	14.22%	6.08%	2.33%	0.85%
I	France	2.09	74.00%	44.46%	27.49%	15.31%	8.47%
F	Sweden	1.04	26.00%	9.13%	3.25%	1.07%	0.34%
A	South Africa	0.80	30.52%	8.84%	2.37%	0.61%	0.16%
B	Canada	1.22	69.48%	33.21%	15.11%	6.58%	2.83%
F	Netherlands	1.82	55.98%	33.88%	16.99%	8.41%	4.10%
C	Morocco	1.57	44.03%	24.07%	10.59%	4.63%	2.05%
K	Portugal	1.93	56.93%	27.20%	16.14%	8.60%	4.44%
L	Croatia	1.64	43.07%	17.44%	9.25%	4.35%	1.97%
H	Spain	2.29	70.87%	43.64%	29.69%	18.60%	11.32%
J	Austria	1.40	29.14%	11.73%	5.46%	2.22%	0.87%
D	United States	1.28	72.29%	38.60%	16.52%	8.11%	3.63%
B	Bosnia and Herzegovina	0.71	27.71%	8.33%	1.79%	0.46%	0.11%
G	Belgium	1.56	50.90%	27.23%	10.90%	4.94%	2.10%
I	Senegal	1.53	49.10%	25.85%	10.24%	4.57%	1.92%
C	Brazil	1.95	56.35%	35.49%	19.08%	10.19%	5.40%
F	Japan	1.69	43.65%	24.84%	11.73%	5.56%	2.54%
E	Ivory Coast	1.12	38.74%	12.69%	4.31%	1.54%	0.50%
I	Norway	1.58	61.26%	26.99%	12.10%	5.34%	2.31%
A	Mexico	1.44	54.54%	28.49%	15.23%	7.84%	4.00%
E	Ecuador	1.66	45.46%	21.86%	10.78%	5.09%	2.31%
L	England	2.00	77.42%	43.40%	24.97%	13.62%	7.24%
K	Congo	0.79	22.58%	6.25%	1.79%	0.51%	0.12%
J	Argentina	2.23	84.24%	61.94%	40.68%	24.65%	14.63%
H	Cape Verde	0.61	15.76%	5.58%	1.57%	0.37%	0.09%
D	Australia	1.26	52.76%	17.79%	7.55%	2.78%	0.99%
G	Egypt	1.15	47.24%	14.68%	5.90%	2.10%	0.69%
B	Switzerland	1.53	58.48%	28.44%	12.25%	5.36%	2.28%
J	Algeria	1.18	41.52%	16.92%	6.04%	2.17%	0.73%
K	Colombia	1.85	77.26%	47.32%	24.15%	12.44%	6.15%
L	Ghana	0.64	22.74%	7.33%	1.85%	0.45%	0.11%

Odds a country outside of Europe/South America wins: 20%. This is double last knockout round in 2022, given we have double the teams at this stage (32).

Also recall that teams that achieve 9 points in the group stage rarely win the whole thing, and in 2022, no knockout teams did this! We have three candidates here this year, including two of the top contenders: France, Argentina, and Mexico.