I installed an automatic z-score test for each sport with spreads (NBA, NCAAB, NFL, NCAAF). I just want to be fairly sure I'm actually picking winners better than 50% of the time, so I'm willing to accept findings at a p-value of 0.9 or better. The following results are in:
- NBA: Win % (all-time): 54.85%, Games Picked: 608, z-score: 2.40, p-value: 0.992
- NCAAB: Win % (all-time): 53.23%, Games Picked: 980, z-score: 2.02, p-value: 0.979
- NFL: Win % (all-time): 54.70%, Games Picked: 293, z-score: 1.61, p-value: 0.947
- NCAAF: Win % (all-time): 51.67%, Games Picked: 1156, z-score: 1.14, p-value: 0.872
Ironically enough, the one sport I can't conclude that I'm doing better than 50/50 by chance (with 90% confidence or better) is college football, the original sport I built MDS for.