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Sunday, March 31, 2024

Final Four per the MDS Model (2024)

While Houston went bust, one of the other two top contenders are overwhelmingly our likely champion (85% combined). But due to the much easier path (on paper) for Purdue, they substantially outpace Connecticut to win it all - even though Connecticut looks pretty unbeatable and has led by 30+ in every game.

SeedTeamChampionshipChampion
Final Four
1Connecticut67.60%38.86%
4Alabama32.40%13.12%
1Purdue87.11%46.07%
11NC State12.89%1.95%

I did pick the champion last year correctly at this stage (Connecticut). In the likely outcome that it's Connecticut/Purdue in the final (60%), Connecticut would be about a 1 point favorite over Purdue.

SeedMatchupsTitle Game
1Connecticut52.89%
1Purdue47.11%
1Connecticut88.57%
11NC State11.43%
4Alabama35.04%
1Purdue64.96%
4Alabama77.25%
11NC State22.75%

Monday, March 25, 2024

Sweet 16 per the MDS Model (2024)

Going in to last year's Sweet Sixteen, we had a pretty clear top two in Alabama and Houston. They both lose immediately as large favorites, leading to a completely unexpected Final Four.

Houston is back as a co-favorite, with only a few points of championship probability added at the top - Houston and Connecticut to 17%, with Purdue at 13%. That still leaves 53% that it is anyone else.

  • Most likely Final Four (3.5% chance): Connecticut, Arizona, Houston, Purdue
  • Chances of Caleb Love vs North Carolina for a trip to Phoenix: 39%
  • Chances of Dook vs State for a trip to Phoenix: 8%

SeedTeamElite 8Final FourChampionshipChampion
Sweet 16
1Connecticut73.12%45.80%28.96%16.88%
5San Diego St.26.88%10.34%4.07%1.41%
3Illinois45.89%19.16%9.31%4.06%
2Iowa St.54.11%24.71%13.01%6.19%
1North Carolina56.35%29.72%13.78%6.44%
4Alabama43.65%20.31%8.17%3.32%
6Clemson30.23%10.84%3.28%1.01%
2Arizona69.77%39.13%19.42%9.72%
1Houston64.57%47.40%28.51%16.93%
4Duke35.43%21.43%9.78%4.38%
11NC State23.61%3.43%0.60%0.10%
2Marquette76.39%27.74%11.43%4.62%
1Purdue68.51%41.74%23.71%13.40%
5Gonzaga31.49%13.21%5.08%1.92%
3Creighton43.92%18.34%7.87%3.33%
2Tennessee56.08%26.72%13.02%6.28%

Wednesday, March 20, 2024

NCAA Tournament 2024 Bracket Math for the MDS Model

A sadder update to start this year's bracket math: 2 of the 4 models I've used the past few years are no longer in service - FiveThirtyEight and Jeff Sagarin's. Nate Silver is still publishing his model to his Substack, but it's behind a paywall, and Jeff Sagarin is no longer at the USA Today, nor is his personal web site up to date. Neither are on The Prediction Tracker either.

I'll be bringing in Seven Overtimes this year, which is a site I've followed for a long time and a resource I've used in the past. I considered utilizing ESPN's BPI as well, but I am not a fan of their metric, and their track record across multiple sports for BPI has not been stellar.

So that leaves me with 3 models this year:

I then use a weighted average of these 3 ratings, which smooths out the final Aggregate ratings that I use to project the tournament.

Note: For simplicity, I've taken the highest rated team in each play-in game and included them

SeedTeam1st Round2nd RoundSweet 16Elite 8Final FourChampionshipChampion
East
1Connecticut100.00%98.45%77.26%49.86%33.30%22.03%13.33%
16Stetson100.00%1.55%0.14%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%
8FAU100.00%57.87%14.46%5.52%2.20%0.86%0.29%
9Northwestern100.00%42.13%8.14%2.55%0.83%0.27%0.07%
5San Diego St.100.00%78.31%30.28%10.19%4.42%1.88%0.70%
12UAB100.00%21.69%3.39%0.42%0.07%0.01%0.00%
4Auburn100.00%84.74%61.03%30.56%18.53%11.11%6.01%
13Yale100.00%15.26%5.30%0.89%0.21%0.05%0.01%
6BYU100.00%68.12%31.20%13.88%4.73%2.02%0.75%
11Duquesne100.00%31.88%9.35%2.61%0.51%0.13%0.03%
3Illinois100.00%87.64%56.66%30.28%12.93%6.70%3.09%
14Morehead St.100.00%12.36%2.79%0.43%0.04%0.01%0.00%
7Washington St.100.00%43.67%11.71%3.89%0.85%0.25%0.06%
10Drake100.00%56.33%17.99%7.00%1.87%0.64%0.19%
2Iowa St.100.00%94.33%69.33%41.80%19.49%10.88%5.44%
15South Dakota St.100.00%5.67%0.97%0.10%0.01%0.00%0.00%
West
1North Carolina100.00%98.13%62.97%39.81%22.08%10.59%5.21%
16*Howard100.00%1.87%0.08%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
8Mississippi St.100.00%46.11%16.14%7.64%3.01%1.08%0.37%
9Michigan St.100.00%53.89%20.81%10.64%4.59%1.65%0.61%
5St. Mary's100.00%63.98%30.80%12.57%5.18%1.77%0.62%
12Grand Canyon100.00%36.02%12.61%3.53%1.00%0.22%0.05%
4Alabama100.00%79.07%49.86%24.42%12.03%5.03%2.17%
13Charleston100.00%20.93%6.73%1.39%0.29%0.05%0.01%
6Clemson100.00%46.78%21.34%7.82%3.17%1.01%0.33%
11New Mexico100.00%53.22%25.88%10.26%4.47%1.55%0.56%
3Baylor100.00%87.46%50.63%23.17%11.56%4.70%1.97%
14Colgate100.00%12.54%2.15%0.24%0.03%0.00%0.00%
7Dayton100.00%56.98%19.37%9.18%3.93%1.34%0.47%
10Nevada100.00%43.02%12.06%4.89%1.77%0.50%0.14%
2Arizona100.00%97.34%68.35%44.42%26.89%13.77%7.22%
15Long Beach St.100.00%2.66%0.22%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%
South
1Houston100.00%96.83%77.39%54.22%40.19%25.28%15.44%
16Longwood100.00%3.17%0.49%0.05%0.01%0.00%0.00%
8Nebraska100.00%56.39%13.57%5.60%2.55%0.86%0.28%
9Texas A&M100.00%43.61%8.55%3.02%1.19%0.34%0.09%
5Wisconsin100.00%70.56%33.81%12.05%6.41%2.63%1.03%
12James Madison100.00%29.44%8.50%1.63%0.53%0.12%0.03%
4Duke100.00%83.72%53.25%22.82%13.91%6.78%3.17%
13Vermont100.00%16.28%4.43%0.61%0.15%0.02%0.00%
6Texas Tech100.00%67.25%34.24%15.25%4.78%1.64%0.53%
11NC State100.00%32.75%11.32%3.19%0.58%0.12%0.02%
3Kentucky100.00%82.49%49.91%24.70%8.82%3.44%1.27%
14Oakland100.00%17.51%4.53%0.80%0.08%0.01%0.00%
7Florida100.00%52.11%24.50%13.03%4.36%1.60%0.55%
    10*Colorado100.00%47.89%21.57%11.03%3.49%1.21%0.40%
2Marquette100.00%86.85%51.46%31.47%12.90%5.72%2.42%
15Western Kentucky100.00%13.15%2.47%0.52%0.05%0.01%0.00%
Midwest
1Purdue100.00%98.15%79.51%58.08%38.11%22.95%13.37%
16*Montana St.100.00%1.85%0.21%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%
8Utah St.100.00%42.05%7.23%2.60%0.74%0.18%0.04%
9TCU100.00%57.95%13.04%5.66%2.01%0.62%0.18%
5Gonzaga100.00%71.31%42.08%16.17%7.65%3.22%1.28%
12McNeese St.100.00%28.69%10.78%2.23%0.60%0.14%0.03%
4Kansas100.00%70.82%37.63%13.43%5.96%2.34%0.86%
13Samford100.00%29.18%9.51%1.81%0.45%0.10%0.02%
6South Carolina100.00%51.29%19.32%6.22%1.81%0.53%0.14%
11Oregon100.00%48.71%17.79%5.53%1.55%0.44%0.11%
3Creighton100.00%83.66%57.75%29.01%13.40%6.23%2.75%
14Akron100.00%16.34%5.14%0.88%0.14%0.02%0.00%
7Texas100.00%47.71%16.13%7.49%2.58%0.89%0.29%
10*Colorado St.100.00%52.29%18.74%9.11%3.32%1.21%0.42%
2Tennessee100.00%96.32%64.80%41.73%21.67%11.34%5.68%
15St. Peter's100.00%3.68%0.33%0.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Totals64.0032.0016.008.004.002.001.00
SeedTeam1st Round
16*Wagner45.58%
16*Howard54.42%
16*Montana St.60.47%
16*Grambling St.39.53%
10*Virginia30.62%
10*Colorado St.69.38%
10*Boise St.46.08%
10*Colorado53.92%


Some notes:

  • Sweet 16 and on are all chalk, except for Gonzaga over Kansas, and Arizona to the Final Four
  • The markets/rankings all year have had a very clear top 3: Houston, Purdue, and Connecticut. And those are the only teams with > 10% to win it all
    • Even so, there is a 58% chance someone else will cut down the net
  • Connecticut was done no favors by getting #1 overall. Four top 10 teams are in their region
    • #2 Connecticut (1 seed), #4 Auburn (4 seed), #6 Iowa St (2 seed), #10 Illinois (3 seed)
  • St. John's and Rick Pitino got hosed. They would have been the 17th highest ranked team in the bracket, and are top 25 on KenPom. Compare this to the first four out:
    • Indiana St: #34
    • Pittsburgh: #34
    • Oklahoma: #37
    • Seton Hall: #46
    • Also, for good measure, Virginia, who made the First Four: #51
Full rankings:

RankSeedTeamRating
11Houston92.63
21Connecticut92.59
31Purdue91.58
44Auburn90.24
52Arizona89.62
62Iowa St.88.75
72Tennessee88.64
81North Carolina88.45
94Duke87.42
103Illinois87.31
113Creighton86.51
124Alabama86.22
132Marquette85.83
143Baylor85.78
155Gonzaga84.86
165Wisconsin84.61
176BYU84.02
189Michigan St.84.01
195San Diego St.83.99
203Kentucky83.80
214Kansas83.78
2211New Mexico83.53
235St. Mary's83.29
247Dayton83.25
257Florida82.91
2610Colorado St.82.78
278FAU82.71
288Mississippi St.82.65
296Clemson82.40
3010Colorado82.18
316Texas Tech82.03
327Texas81.97
338Nebraska81.87
3410Drake80.94
3510Boise St.80.80
3610Nevada80.79
379TCU80.44
389Northwestern79.94
396South Carolina79.80
409Texas A&M79.63
4111Oregon79.35
427Washington St.78.71
4312Grand Canyon78.30
448Utah St.77.65
4511Duquesne77.45
4612James Madison77.07
4712McNeese St.77.01
4813Samford76.13
4913Yale75.94
5011NC State75.80
5110Virginia75.71
5213Charleston74.94
5313Vermont73.70
5412UAB73.07
5514Akron72.83
5614Morehead St.71.17
5714Oakland70.77
5815Western Kentucky70.21
5914Colgate69.76
6016Longwood66.73
6115South Dakota St.66.67
6215St. Peter's63.69
6315Long Beach St.62.65
6416Stetson62.51
6516Montana St.62.49
6616Howard59.41
6716Grambling St.58.79
6816Wagner57.87