A quick re-primer on Simpson's Paradox, from my previous post concluding we weren't seeing it in Florida re: COVID-19:
... A hypothesis around Simpson's Paradox, which is a phenomenon in statistics "in which a trend appears in several different groups of data but disappears or reverses when these groups are combined". This certainly occurred early on over the summer, when it appeared cases had plateaued (graphs from the COVID Tracking Project, 6/16/20):
But the Northeast was coming down off of an extreme high, while cases were accelerating in the South and West:
Outside of the Northeast, cases are fairly evenly distributed right now, with the Midwest having the largest share.
The same is true with smaller sub-regions - East North Central (Midwest) currently has double the share (23%) of any other sub-region. Everywhere outside of the Northeast is getting hit hard, with the Midwest reaching heights not yet seen during the pandemic, regardless of how you slice the data.