Sunday, October 22, 2017

Simulated World Series Preview 2017: LAD vs HOU

Over the course of my modeling career, I'm so far 0-2 when picking the World Series winners (I had KCR in 2014 and NYM in 2015). That's baseball for you, where the "favorite" only has about a 55% chance of winning a given 7 game series. This year's matchup features a matchup of two 100-win teams, the Dodgers and the Astros.

I've tweaked my simulator that I used in 2015 and simulated the World Series 10,000 times, and predict the Dodgers win it all in 6 games. So if you want to read too much into an extremely small sample size of 2014 and 2015, that means the Astros are winning it in 5 or 7.

My ratings are very in line with Baseball Prospectus, and have the two teams as fairly evenly matched:

LAD: 0.604

HOU: 0.592

So this series should go 6 or 7 games:

The pick: Los Angeles Dodgers in 6