Saturday, August 27, 2016

Preseason NCAAF Rankings for 2016

As I did last year and the year before, I've created a new set of preseason NCAAF rankings that take into account player turnover and recruiting classes. The following is literally copied and pasted from last year's write-up so you don't have to click that first link:

 As before, I used my final Composite ratings from the MDS Model (from last season) as the base (which takes into account both a forward-looking predictive component and a past-performance only retrodictive component), and then factored in ESPN's Preseason FPI and the S&P+ projections, both of which take into account player changes on each team. Once the season starts, this "preseason" rating will be faded out as the season progresses, carrying less and less weight with each ensuing week.

In the below list, the "Trend" indicates whether the respective team's new ranking rose or fell relative to the average of last year's end-of-season Composite ratings. I know this is a day late, so the Hawaii and Cal game is not yet included (these are purely preseason ratings).