The NL West is currently the weakest division in baseball, with the Dodgers leading the division with a record of 51-47, only 4 games above .500. The worst part about the current state of things in the West is that 4 of its 5 teams are actually overperforming their expected records. I've reached this conclusion based on the Pythagorean Expectation (originally derived by Bill James) for each team, calculated from their run differentials. If each team was playing to their expected winning percentage, the standings would currently look like this:
1. Arizona Diamondbacks 50-49 .505 (+1)
T2. Colorado Rockies 50-50 .500 (-2)
T2. Los Angeles Dodgers 49-49 .500 (+2)
4. San Francisco Giants 44-54 .449 (+1)
5. San Diego Padres 43-57 .430 (+1)
As depicted above, the Rockies have underperformed by 2 wins, while each of the other 4 teams have slightly overperformed their expected records. As a whole, the division has won 3 more games than they should have, and still achieved their current level of mediocrity. If things had played out strictly by the numbers to date, the Diamondbacks would be in first place and primed for the lone playoff spot out of the division with a record 1 game over .500.
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