The Colorado Rockies are currently a below-.500 ball club, 3 games below .500, and 11 games back in the NL West. However, they're #9 in my MDS Model, and #7 in the predictive Pyth component, far above a below-average team. My question is: why? They have the 26th ranked strength-of-schedule, so I hypothesized that it's due to their output at home, which is boosted by the high altitude of Coors Field. However, this effect should also boost the runs allowed at home too.
Since Pyth simply adjusts runs scored and runs allowed by the strength of each opponent, I then hypothesized that the margin of victory at home might be significantly different than on the road, which would boost their rating. I checked the data for so far in 2014. For Colorado home games, the average MOV has been 4.78, while the league average (for 2013) was 3.28. However, this difference isn't significant, with a p-value of 0.2776. So this might still be the reason they're favored in my model, but I can't be certain. If the Rockies start rattling off a winning streak... You heard it here first.
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