Since I keep a weekly archive of my NCAAF ratings, I was able to retroactively determine how likely UNC was to make a bowl after each of their games. Obviously each win and loss greatly impacts the total probability, since a concrete "W" increases whatever pregame win probability to a 1 in the books (and conversely an "L" brings that down to a 0).
The following chart is based on simulating the rest of the season 10,000 times after each of UNC's games, using each week's archived ratings. Besides the explicit influence of each win and loss as described above, two notable changes occurred as follows:
- The 70-41 loss to ECU had a HUGE negative impact. One reason was the lopsided score itself (and only having 3 games of data at that point), and another was that this week was when I transitioned fully from my pregame rankings to using the Composite ratings that factored in only this year's data (after Week 4)
- The 50-43 loss to Notre Dame greatly improved the likelihood of 6 wins (from 13.46% to 32.03%) because it was a close loss to a good team (we performed better than expected). However, another coincident factor was that this was also the week I transitioned to fully using the Pyth ratings to predict games
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