A couple of wrinkles in the following probabilities:
- The NFL bracket is reseeded after each round, and this is accounted for.
- Arizona would also play at home if they make it to this year's Super Bowl, and would be the first team in NFL history to do so. This is also included: they are given the standard home-field advantage of 3 points in the final game.
- As you can see, NE, DEN, SEA, and GB are waaaaaaay ahead of the field, and win the Super Bowl a whopping 90.52% of the time.
AFC | Wild Card | 2nd Round | AFC | SB | |
1 | NE | 100.00% | 74.49% | 52.69% | 28.60% |
4 | IND | 63.83% | 13.67% | 4.00% | 1.28% |
5 | CIN | 36.17% | 11.84% | 3.21% | 0.96% |
2 | DEN | 100.00% | 74.03% | 32.16% | 15.06% |
3 | PIT | 57.63% | 15.87% | 4.52% | 1.59% |
6 | BAL | 42.37% | 10.11% | 3.43% | 1.32% |
NFC | Wild Card | 2nd Round | NFC | SB | |
1 | SEA | 100.00% | 86.23% | 66.40% | 37.98% |
4 | CAR | 47.45% | 5.79% | 1.21% | 0.25% |
5 | ARI | 52.55% | 7.98% | 2.52% | 1.05% |
2 | GB | 100.00% | 68.27% | 21.49% | 8.87% |
3 | DAL | 71.16% | 24.96% | 7.14% | 2.69% |
6 | DET | 28.84% | 6.76% | 1.24% | 0.35% |
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