Preseason NCAAF Rankings for 2016

As I did last year and the year before, I've created a new set of preseason NCAAF rankings that take into account player turnover and recruiting classes. The following is literally copied and pasted from last year's write-up so you don't have to click that first link:

 As before, I used my final Composite ratings from the MDS Model (from last season) as the base (which takes into account both a forward-looking predictive component and a past-performance only retrodictive component), and then factored in ESPN's Preseason FPI and the S&P+ projections, both of which take into account player changes on each team. Once the season starts, this "preseason" rating will be faded out as the season progresses, carrying less and less weight with each ensuing week.

In the below list, the "Trend" indicates whether the respective team's new ranking rose or fell relative to the average of last year's end-of-season Composite ratings. I know this is a day late, so the Hawaii and Cal game is not yet included (these are purely preseason ratings).

Rank	Team	PRESEASON	Trend
1	Alabama	0.874	UP
2	Clemson	0.845	UP
3	Oklahoma	0.845	UP
4	Florida State	0.795	UP
5	Ohio State	0.788	DOWN
6	LSU	0.777	UP
7	Michigan	0.765	UP
8	Ole Miss	0.763	UP
9	Tennessee	0.742	UP
10	Stanford	0.740	DOWN
11	Notre Dame	0.738	DOWN
12	USC	0.736	UP
13	Michigan State	0.727	DOWN
14	Oklahoma State	0.700	UP
15	North Carolina	0.697	DOWN
16	Florida	0.697	UP
17	Washington	0.693	UP
18	UCLA	0.691	UP
19	Baylor	0.691	UP
20	TCU	0.690	DOWN
21	Iowa	0.675	DOWN
22	Oregon	0.673	UP
23	Georgia	0.669	UP
24	Arkansas	0.669	UP
25	Mississippi State	0.661	UP
26	Houston	0.647	DOWN
27	Wisconsin	0.644	DOWN
28	Texas A&M	0.644	UP
29	Utah	0.644	DOWN
30	Louisville	0.639	UP
31	Pittsburgh	0.634	UP
32	Western Kentucky	0.628	DOWN
33	West Virginia	0.624	UP
34	Brigham Young	0.621	DOWN
35	Nebraska	0.616	UP
36	Boise State	0.615	UP
37	Navy	0.613	DOWN
38	Penn State	0.611	UP
39	South Florida	0.610	DOWN
40	Appalachian State	0.604	DOWN
41	Auburn	0.595	UP
42	Temple	0.595	DOWN
43	Miami (FL)	0.592	UP
44	Washington State	0.592	DOWN
45	San Diego State	0.588	DOWN
46	North Carolina State	0.584	DOWN
47	Northwestern	0.583	DOWN
48	Toledo	0.580	DOWN
49	California	0.579	DOWN
50	Bowling Green	0.578	DOWN
51	Memphis	0.577	DOWN
52	Texas	0.564	UP
53	Texas Tech	0.564	UP
54	Virginia Tech	0.551	UP
55	Arizona State	0.547	UP
56	Western Michigan	0.544	DOWN
57	Cincinnati	0.542	DOWN
58	Marshall	0.541	DOWN
59	Southern Miss	0.533	DOWN
60	Minnesota	0.524	UP
61	Arizona	0.524	UP
62	Air Force	0.516	DOWN
63	Georgia Southern	0.512	DOWN
64	Duke	0.511	UP
65	Georgia Tech	0.507	UP
66	Kansas State	0.495	UP
67	Arkansas State	0.491	DOWN
68	Central Michigan	0.491	DOWN
69	Indiana	0.489	UP
70	Northern Illinois	0.487	DOWN
71	Utah State	0.482	DOWN
72	Louisiana Tech	0.482	DOWN
73	Missouri	0.473	UP
74	Syracuse	0.471	UP
75	South Carolina	0.462	UP
76	Vanderbilt	0.452	UP
77	Illinois	0.451	UP
78	Virginia	0.446	UP
79	Middle Tennessee	0.444	DOWN
80	Tulsa	0.441	DOWN
81	Boston College	0.439	UP
82	Maryland	0.437	UP
83	Iowa State	0.433	UP
84	Colorado	0.430	UP
85	Ohio	0.428	DOWN
86	East Carolina	0.427	DOWN
87	Connecticut	0.426	UP
88	Wake Forest	0.413	UP
89	Kentucky	0.407	UP
90	Purdue	0.403	UP
91	Nevada	0.398	UP
92	Rutgers	0.393	UP
93	New Mexico	0.393	DOWN
94	San Jose State	0.392	UP
95	Colorado State	0.389	DOWN
96	Georgia State	0.376	DOWN
97	Troy	0.365	DOWN
98	Akron	0.360	DOWN
99	Oregon State	0.356	UP
100	Florida Atlantic	0.342	DOWN
101	Southern Methodist	0.341	UP
102	Buffalo	0.341	DOWN
103	Ball State	0.312	UP
104	Louisiana-Lafayette	0.307	DOWN
105	Florida International	0.300	DOWN
106	Old Dominion	0.296	UP
107	Fresno State	0.296	UP
108	Idaho	0.293	DOWN
109	South Alabama	0.288	DOWN
110	UNLV	0.288	UP
111	Wyoming	0.276	UP
112	Massachusetts	0.275	DOWN
113	Kent State	0.275	UP
114	Rice	0.269	DOWN
115	Miami (OH)	0.265	UP
116	UTSA	0.260	DOWN
117	New Mexico State	0.258	DOWN
118	Texas State	0.253	DOWN
119	UCF	0.253	UP
120	UTEP	0.238	DOWN
121	Kansas	0.235	UP
122	Eastern Michigan	0.229	UP
123	Hawaii	0.221	UP
124	Army	0.220	UP
125	Tulane	0.215	DOWN
126	Louisiana-Monroe	0.194	DOWN
127	Charlotte	0.189	UP
128	North Texas	0.187	DOWN