Sweet 16 per the MDS Model (2018)

A bunch of upsets on the left side of the bracket has left the field with 2 favorites well above the rest: Villanova and Duke. Both team's individual chances are limited by the fact that they likely will have to play each other (but combined they win it almost 37% of the time).

Seed	Team	1st Round	Elite 8	Final Four	Championship	Champion
	Sweet 16
9	Kansas St.	100.00%	37.11%	17.31%	6.13%	1.59%
5	Kentucky	100.00%	62.89%	37.50%	18.01%	6.74%
11	Loyola-Chicago	100.00%	43.46%	18.06%	6.34%	1.63%
7	Nevada	100.00%	56.54%	27.13%	11.20%	3.49%
9	Florida St.	100.00%	33.69%	13.50%	6.34%	1.83%
4	Gonzaga	100.00%	66.31%	37.48%	23.73%	10.48%
3	Michigan	100.00%	62.38%	33.46%	20.58%	8.71%
7	Texas A&M	100.00%	37.62%	15.57%	7.66%	2.36%
1	Villanova	100.00%	66.88%	42.22%	26.06%	18.51%
5	West Virginia	100.00%	33.12%	15.25%	6.86%	3.77%
3	Texas Tech	100.00%	40.98%	15.32%	6.69%	3.59%
2	Purdue	100.00%	59.02%	27.21%	14.27%	8.90%
1	Kansas	100.00%	60.15%	28.01%	12.29%	7.11%
5	Clemson	100.00%	39.85%	14.79%	5.06%	2.42%
11	Syracuse	100.00%	20.18%	6.38%	1.49%	0.53%
2	Duke	100.00%	79.82%	50.83%	27.28%	18.33%

Another wrinkle, as illustrated above, is that Duke has the best chance of making the championship game, yet a lower chance of actually winning it. Playing Syracuse in the Sweet 16 greatly elevates their odds of getting there, but Villanova is still the better team, and thus has the stronger chance over all.