As I did in 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, and 2014, I've compiled my preseason NCAAF rankings that take into account player turnover and recruiting classes.
There's a slightly new wrinkle this year though. As before, I used my final MDS Model ratings from last season as the base, and then factored in ESPN's Preseason FPI and the S&P+ projections (which are now housed over at ESPN with Bill Connelly leaving SB Nation), but this year I've also included Ed Feng's rating system from The Power Rank. Once the season starts, this "preseason" rating will be faded out as the season progresses, carrying less and less weight with each ensuing week.
As I have in the past, I missed Week 0, but got these ratings out before the first full weekend of games.
In the below list, the "Trend" indicates whether the respective team's new ranking rose or fell relative to last year's preseason ratings. No team movement in or out of FBS this year though!
My goodness are Alabama and Clemson evenly matched, and in a class of their own:
Alabama: 0.95035035751657
Clemson: 0.949045941382027
Rank | Team | PRESEASON | Trend |
1 | Alabama | 0.950 | UP |
2 | Clemson | 0.949 | UP |
3 | Georgia | 0.851 | UP |
4 | Oklahoma | 0.813 | UP |
5 | LSU | 0.808 | UP |
6 | Ohio State | 0.806 | DOWN |
7 | Michigan | 0.793 | UP |
8 | Notre Dame | 0.792 | DOWN |
9 | Auburn | 0.784 | DOWN |
10 | Penn State | 0.743 | DOWN |
11 | Florida | 0.740 | UP |
12 | Washington | 0.732 | DOWN |
13 | Texas A&M | 0.731 | UP |
14 | Mississippi State | 0.723 | DOWN |
15 | Michigan State | 0.712 | DOWN |
16 | Oregon | 0.695 | UP |
17 | Wisconsin | 0.691 | DOWN |
18 | Missouri | 0.690 | UP |
19 | Miami (FL) | 0.669 | DOWN |
20 | Utah | 0.667 | UP |
21 | South Carolina | 0.660 | UP |
22 | Florida State | 0.654 | DOWN |
23 | Oklahoma State | 0.653 | DOWN |
24 | Iowa | 0.645 | UP |
25 | USC | 0.644 | DOWN |
26 | Texas | 0.636 | DOWN |
27 | Stanford | 0.635 | DOWN |
28 | UCF | 0.630 | UP |
29 | Virginia Tech | 0.629 | DOWN |
30 | Tennessee | 0.627 | UP |
31 | Iowa State | 0.627 | UP |
32 | TCU | 0.625 | DOWN |
33 | Boise State | 0.622 | DOWN |
34 | Washington State | 0.622 | UP |
35 | Baylor | 0.610 | UP |
36 | UCLA | 0.605 | UP |
37 | Minnesota | 0.603 | UP |
38 | Ole Miss | 0.602 | DOWN |
39 | Kentucky | 0.593 | UP |
40 | Nebraska | 0.585 | UP |
41 | North Carolina State | 0.583 | DOWN |
42 | Syracuse | 0.581 | UP |
43 | Memphis | 0.577 | UP |
44 | Arizona State | 0.575 | UP |
45 | West Virginia | 0.571 | DOWN |
46 | Virginia | 0.570 | UP |
47 | Northwestern | 0.569 | DOWN |
48 | Texas Tech | 0.568 | DOWN |
49 | Purdue | 0.568 | UP |
50 | Duke | 0.566 | DOWN |
51 | Pittsburgh | 0.563 | UP |
52 | Appalachian State | 0.554 | UP |
53 | Brigham Young | 0.552 | UP |
54 | Indiana | 0.547 | UP |
55 | Arizona | 0.546 | DOWN |
56 | North Carolina | 0.544 | DOWN |
57 | Vanderbilt | 0.536 | UP |
58 | Cincinnati | 0.535 | UP |
59 | Wake Forest | 0.532 | DOWN |
60 | California | 0.529 | DOWN |
61 | Arkansas | 0.524 | DOWN |
62 | Kansas State | 0.523 | DOWN |
63 | Louisville | 0.515 | DOWN |
64 | Boston College | 0.514 | DOWN |
65 | Fresno State | 0.508 | UP |
66 | Houston | 0.503 | DOWN |
67 | Temple | 0.495 | UP |
68 | Georgia Tech | 0.495 | DOWN |
69 | Utah State | 0.495 | UP |
70 | Maryland | 0.490 | UP |
71 | San Diego State | 0.489 | DOWN |
72 | South Florida | 0.479 | DOWN |
73 | Marshall | 0.477 | DOWN |
74 | Northern Illinois | 0.469 | UP |
75 | Toledo | 0.468 | DOWN |
76 | Colorado | 0.464 | UP |
77 | Western Michigan | 0.459 | UP |
78 | Florida Atlantic | 0.453 | DOWN |
79 | Army | 0.452 | UP |
80 | Ohio | 0.449 | DOWN |
81 | Southern Miss | 0.447 | UP |
82 | Arkansas State | 0.440 | DOWN |
83 | Georgia Southern | 0.438 | UP |
84 | Air Force | 0.437 | UP |
85 | Southern Methodist | 0.425 | DOWN |
86 | Troy | 0.425 | UP |
87 | Illinois | 0.421 | UP |
88 | North Texas | 0.417 | UP |
89 | Louisiana Tech | 0.412 | DOWN |
90 | Wyoming | 0.403 | DOWN |
91 | Tulane | 0.400 | UP |
92 | Middle Tennessee | 0.397 | DOWN |
93 | Florida International | 0.394 | UP |
94 | Tulsa | 0.387 | UP |
95 | Oregon State | 0.380 | UP |
96 | Miami (OH) | 0.380 | DOWN |
97 | Nevada | 0.379 | UP |
98 | Rutgers | 0.374 | DOWN |
99 | Western Kentucky | 0.373 | UP |
100 | Hawaii | 0.373 | UP |
101 | UAB | 0.363 | UP |
102 | Eastern Michigan | 0.360 | UP |
103 | Navy | 0.349 | DOWN |
104 | Buffalo | 0.348 | DOWN |
105 | Louisiana-Monroe | 0.345 | UP |
106 | Kansas | 0.341 | DOWN |
107 | Colorado State | 0.339 | DOWN |
108 | Louisiana-Lafayette | 0.336 | UP |
109 | UNLV | 0.325 | DOWN |
110 | Ball State | 0.324 | UP |
111 | East Carolina | 0.309 | UP |
112 | Texas State | 0.307 | UP |
113 | Liberty | 0.285 | UP |
114 | Georgia State | 0.276 | UP |
115 | Coastal Carolina | 0.274 | UP |
116 | Central Michigan | 0.274 | DOWN |
117 | San Jose State | 0.269 | UP |
118 | New Mexico | 0.260 | DOWN |
119 | Akron | 0.255 | DOWN |
120 | Kent State | 0.250 | UP |
121 | Bowling Green | 0.244 | DOWN |
122 | Charlotte | 0.234 | UP |
123 | New Mexico State | 0.234 | DOWN |
124 | UTSA | 0.229 | DOWN |
125 | Massachusetts | 0.218 | DOWN |
126 | South Alabama | 0.213 | DOWN |
127 | Old Dominion | 0.206 | DOWN |
128 | Connecticut | 0.201 | DOWN |
129 | Rice | 0.162 | DOWN |
130 | UTEP | 0.118 | DOWN |