NCAA Tournament 2025 Bracket Math for the MDS Model

By almost any rating system, North Carolina deserved to be in the tournament.

For those who are still reading and didn't rage quit this post written by a UNC grad, this year's composite contains 4 models:

• KenPom (the one and only)
• Powerrank (created and maintained by Ed Feng)
• Seven Overtimes (created and maintained by Mark Bashuk)
• Nate Silver (I shelled out for the paywall this year)

As always, I use a weighted average of these 4 ratings, which smooths out the final Aggregate ratings that I use to project the tournament.

First I will bore you with evidence that Carolina did in fact deserve to be in, per any advanced metric rating system. KenPom: #33, Powerrank: #42, Seven Overtimes: #33, Nate Silver: #33, and by my overall model, we rank #35. Compare this to:

• The other First Four at-large teams:
• Xavier: #40
• San Diego St: #41
• Texas: #47
• And the other first few teams out:
• Boise St: #42
• Colorado St: #44
• Indiana: #46
• West Virginia: #50
• UC Irvine: #55

Alternatively, our play is evidence Brett Yormark is wrong and we absolutely should not expand the NCAA tournament! 

Given that 68 teams get in (for now), we deserved to be one of them. Credit to @wagner_seymour and @michaelwatson2:

Now the bracket math. Note: For simplicity, I've taken the highest rated team in each play-in game and included them

Seed	Team	1st Round	2nd Round	Sweet 16	Elite 8	Final Four	Championship	Champion
	South
1	Auburn	100.00%	99.33%	74.82%	57.12%	40.41%	24.17%	13.97%
16*	Alabama St.	100.00%	0.67%	0.03%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
8	Louisville	100.00%	57.97%	16.10%	8.83%	4.25%	1.58%	0.55%
9	Creighton	100.00%	42.03%	9.06%	4.25%	1.72%	0.52%	0.15%
5	Michigan	100.00%	58.79%	32.00%	10.20%	4.69%	1.66%	0.55%
12	UC San Diego	100.00%	41.21%	18.93%	4.68%	1.76%	0.49%	0.13%
4	Texas A&M	100.00%	73.29%	40.64%	13.61%	6.51%	2.40%	0.84%
13	Yale	100.00%	26.71%	8.42%	1.30%	0.33%	0.06%	0.01%
6	Ole Miss	100.00%	55.92%	27.54%	12.28%	4.40%	1.52%	0.49%
11*	North Carolina	100.00%	44.08%	19.25%	7.50%	2.30%	0.68%	0.19%
3	Iowa St.	100.00%	81.44%	48.43%	24.88%	10.47%	4.28%	1.65%
14	Lipscomb	100.00%	18.56%	4.77%	0.96%	0.14%	0.02%	0.00%
7	Marquette	100.00%	54.44%	22.56%	10.84%	3.79%	1.28%	0.40%
10	New Mexico	100.00%	45.56%	17.05%	7.46%	2.32%	0.70%	0.19%
2	Michigan St.	100.00%	89.90%	58.50%	35.76%	16.88%	7.77%	3.40%
15	Bryant	100.00%	10.10%	1.90%	0.32%	0.03%	0.00%	0.00%
	West
1	Florida	100.00%	98.07%	81.12%	61.26%	43.93%	28.61%	17.26%
16	Norfolk St.	100.00%	1.93%	0.26%	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
8	Connecticut	100.00%	58.89%	12.33%	5.48%	2.16%	0.71%	0.21%
9	Oklahoma	100.00%	41.11%	6.30%	2.27%	0.71%	0.19%	0.04%
5	Memphis	100.00%	57.62%	25.21%	6.79%	2.76%	0.95%	0.28%
12	Colorado St.	100.00%	42.38%	15.59%	3.34%	1.12%	0.31%	0.07%
4	Maryland	100.00%	83.02%	54.28%	20.27%	10.73%	4.95%	2.02%
13	Grand Canyon	100.00%	16.98%	4.91%	0.57%	0.11%	0.02%	0.00%
6	Missouri	100.00%	62.70%	30.42%	13.90%	4.80%	1.88%	0.64%
11	Drake	100.00%	37.30%	13.68%	4.59%	1.11%	0.31%	0.07%
3	Texas Tech	100.00%	84.24%	52.05%	27.48%	11.26%	5.19%	2.13%
14	UNC Wilmington	100.00%	15.76%	3.85%	0.70%	0.09%	0.01%	0.00%
7	Kansas	100.00%	64.90%	28.38%	14.09%	4.93%	1.96%	0.68%
10	Arkansas	100.00%	35.10%	10.61%	3.73%	0.86%	0.23%	0.05%
2	St. John's	100.00%	93.48%	60.15%	35.42%	15.44%	7.53%	3.28%
15	Omaha	100.00%	6.52%	0.86%	0.09%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%
	East
1	Duke	100.00%	98.75%	81.14%	63.18%	43.15%	28.10%	17.18%
16*	American	100.00%	1.25%	0.12%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
8	Mississippi St.	100.00%	49.82%	9.31%	4.20%	1.41%	0.44%	0.12%
9	Baylor	100.00%	50.18%	9.44%	4.28%	1.45%	0.45%	0.12%
5	Oregon	100.00%	59.80%	24.98%	5.83%	1.92%	0.58%	0.16%
12	Liberty	100.00%	40.20%	13.26%	2.25%	0.56%	0.12%	0.02%
4	Arizona	100.00%	81.45%	55.48%	19.53%	9.16%	4.00%	1.59%
13	Akron	100.00%	18.55%	6.28%	0.72%	0.12%	0.02%	0.00%
6	BYU	100.00%	48.89%	22.52%	8.15%	2.58%	0.92%	0.29%
11	VCU	100.00%	51.11%	24.07%	8.96%	2.92%	1.07%	0.35%
3	Wisconsin	100.00%	89.09%	51.74%	22.92%	8.96%	3.91%	1.55%
14	Montana	100.00%	10.91%	1.66%	0.16%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%
7	St. Mary's	100.00%	72.62%	28.14%	14.67%	5.44%	2.25%	0.85%
10	Vanderbilt	100.00%	27.38%	5.46%	1.61%	0.30%	0.06%	0.01%
2	Alabama	100.00%	93.51%	65.28%	43.37%	21.99%	12.26%	6.33%
15	Robert Morris	100.00%	6.49%	1.12%	0.16%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%
	Midwest
1	Houston	100.00%	98.27%	66.08%	49.23%	33.12%	18.77%	10.69%
16	SIU Edwardsville	100.00%	1.73%	0.09%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
8	Gonzaga	100.00%	67.96%	26.43%	16.90%	9.45%	4.25%	1.92%
9	Georgia	100.00%	32.04%	7.40%	3.41%	1.30%	0.37%	0.11%
5	Clemson	100.00%	71.57%	42.53%	14.94%	7.09%	2.61%	0.97%
12	McNeese St.	100.00%	28.43%	10.76%	1.88%	0.51%	0.10%	0.02%
4	Purdue	100.00%	74.06%	39.16%	12.58%	5.56%	1.88%	0.64%
13	High Point	100.00%	25.94%	7.54%	1.04%	0.23%	0.03%	0.01%
6	Illinois	100.00%	59.21%	31.72%	13.39%	4.94%	1.67%	0.57%
11*	Xavier	100.00%	40.79%	18.27%	6.18%	1.79%	0.47%	0.12%
3	Kentucky	100.00%	80.29%	45.17%	20.15%	7.90%	2.85%	1.03%
14	Troy	100.00%	19.71%	4.84%	0.84%	0.12%	0.01%	0.00%
7	UCLA	100.00%	60.19%	21.23%	10.31%	3.49%	1.08%	0.33%
10	Utah St.	100.00%	39.81%	10.70%	4.13%	1.05%	0.24%	0.05%
2	Tennessee	100.00%	90.91%	65.94%	44.57%	23.39%	11.48%	5.67%
15	Wofford	100.00%	9.09%	2.13%	0.42%	0.05%	0.00%	0.00%
	Totals	64.00	32.00	16.00	8.00	4.00	2.00	1.00
Seed	Team	1st Round
16*	Alabama St.	53.41%
16*	St. Francis	46.59%
16*	American	52.12%
16*	Mount St. Mary's	47.88%
11*	San Diego St.	46.16%
11*	North Carolina	53.84%
11*	Texas	41.87%
11*	Xavier	58.13%

Some notes:

• A super chalky bracket, with all four 1-seeds favored to make the Final Four, and all at 40%+ with the exception of Houston
• This is thanks to Gonzaga (#7 in my rating) as Houston's likely second round opponent
• These four 1-seeds are the only teams with > 10% to win it all, with Florida, Dook, and Auburn a step above (in that order (barely))
• Dook is BARELY the highest rated team, but has a slightly harder route (Caleb Love or Grant Nelson, please) and comes in less than 0.1% lower in chances to win it all because of it
• The relative strength/weakness of the two 1 seeds facing play-in 16 seeds is very elevated - Auburn and Dook both have 99% chance of moving on (hoping for a jinx here)

Full rankings:

Rank	Seed	Team	Rating
1	1	Duke	94.77
2	1	Florida	94.70
3	1	Auburn	93.76
4	1	Houston	93.20
5	2	Alabama	91.24
6	2	Tennessee	90.41
7	8	Gonzaga	88.89
8	2	Michigan St.	88.66
9	2	St. John's	88.58
10	4	Maryland	87.59
11	3	Texas Tech	87.59
12	4	Arizona	86.85
13	3	Wisconsin	86.82
14	3	Iowa St.	86.73
15	7	St. Mary's	86.01
16	5	Clemson	85.82
17	3	Kentucky	85.51
18	8	Louisville	85.34
19	4	Texas A&M	85.23
20	7	Kansas	85.23
21	6	Missouri	85.04
22	4	Purdue	84.64
23	6	Illinois	84.62
24	5	Michigan	84.58
25	6	Ole Miss	84.30
26	11	VCU	84.16
27	7	Marquette	83.95
28	6	BYU	83.77
29	7	UCLA	83.42
30	5	Memphis	83.18
31	8	Connecticut	82.75
32	9	Creighton	82.54
33	10	New Mexico	82.40
34	9	Georgia	82.39
35	11	North Carolina	82.22
37	8	Mississippi St.	81.89
36	9	Baylor	81.95
38	5	Oregon	81.62
39	12	UC San Diego	81.48
40	11	Xavier	81.37
41	11	San Diego St.	80.88
42	11	Drake	80.52
43	12	Colorado St.	80.50
44	10	Arkansas	79.89
45	10	Utah St.	79.82
46	9	Oklahoma	79.62
47	11	Texas	78.50
48	12	Liberty	78.16
49	12	McNeese St.	77.87
50	10	Vanderbilt	77.62
51	13	Yale	76.56
52	13	High Point	75.64
53	13	Akron	74.37
54	13	Grand Canyon	74.27
55	14	Lipscomb	74.26
56	14	Troy	73.62
57	14	UNC Wilmington	73.58
58	15	Wofford	71.78
59	15	Bryant	70.86
60	15	Robert Morris	70.11
61	14	Montana	69.64
62	15	Omaha	67.48
63	16	Norfolk St.	65.85
64	16	SIU Edwardsville	63.71
65	16	American	63.49
66	16	Mount St. Mary's	62.75
67	16	Alabama St.	59.26
68	16	St. Francis	58.07

NBA Finals 2024 Bracket Math

Going in to the playoffs, I only had 4 teams with > 5% chance of winning the title - Boston led the way with almost a 50/50 chance to raise another banner, whereas Dallas was barely on the radar, with the 12th best odds at 0.38%. Last year, Denver was barely above this 5% threshold, and ultimately steamrolled a Miami team that I gave a 0.1% chance of winning the championship at the start of last year's playoffs. Denver then had about a 60% edge last Finals on the back of an incredible playoff run by Nikola Jokic.

This season it's Luka Doncic's turn in the postseason, so I've based this season's Finals simulations off of playoff statistics only. This choice could seem to penalize Boston, as they have had much less impressive performances throughout these playoffs, compared to Dallas. Even so, they've only lost 2 games the entire postseason.

In Boston's favor, I am including Kristaps Porzingis at full-strength, and assuming his regular season workload, as he is not listed on the injury report and is expected to play in all games.

A lot has been made about how Dallas would be the 3rd biggest Finals upset in the modern era how Dallas would be the 3rd biggest Finals upset in the modern era - their odds are pegged at +185, or ~35%. 

And yet I actually have those market odds as overrating their chances:

# Games	BOS in...	DAL in...	Total
4	12.0%	2.7%	14.8%
5	21.7%	5.8%	27.5%
6	20.0%	9.6%	29.6%
7	18.1%	10.1%	28.2%
	71.9%	28.1%	100.0%

Ultimately I project Boston in 5. I have them as 7 point favorites (63% win probability) at home, and 3.5 point favorites (58% win probability) on the road. This adds up to a very large series probability.

A big question in this series is whether the top tier talent of Dallas can overwhelm Boston's depth. Dallas might have the 1st and 2nd best player, but Boston is far deeper at 3, 4, 5, 6, etc.

Luka may have the best projected stat line, but Tatum and Brown are consistently really good, and that, plus Boston's depth, results in Boston as a very strong favorite.

Name	Pos	Team	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Turnovers	Steals	Blocks
Luka Doncic	PG	DAL	30.2	8.4	9.2	3.6	1.7	0.2
Jayson Tatum	PF	BOS	29.9	9.8	6.5	2.2	1.5	0.3
Jaylen Brown	SF	BOS	24.6	5.8	3.2	2.4	1.4	0.3
Kyrie Irving	SG	DAL	24.6	3.8	6.6	2.5	1.4	0.2
Derrick White	SG	BOS	18.6	4.3	5.7	0.7	1.3	0.6
P.J. Washington	PF	DAL	14.9	6.6	1.9	1.4	1.1	0.3
Kristaps Porzingis	C	BOS	11.2	4.2	1.6	0.8	1.2	0.6
Daniel Gafford	C	DAL	10.5	5.5	0.9	1.0	0.3	0.7
Jrue Holiday	PG	BOS	10.4	4.7	4.4	1.3	1.4	0.3
Dereck Lively II	C	DAL	10.1	6.4	1.9	1.0	0.3	0.5
Derrick Jones Jr.	SF	DAL	9.6	3.2	1.6	0.9	0.5	0.4
Payton Pritchard	PG	BOS	7.4	2.2	2.6	0.7	0.3	0.0
Al Horford	C	BOS	7.2	5.3	1.7	0.5	0.7	0.3
Sam Hauser	SF	BOS	5.7	2.3	0.8	0.3	0.5	0.1
Josh Green	SF	DAL	5.4	2.4	1.4	0.4	0.8	0.1
Tim Hardaway Jr.	SF	DAL	3.1	1.1	0.3	0.1	0.3	0.0
Luke Kornet	C	BOS	2.5	1.8	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.1
Maxi Kleber	C	DAL	2.3	1.2	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.1
Dante Exum	PG	DAL	2.1	0.7	0.6	0.1	0.1	0.0
Xavier Tillman Sr.	C	BOS	0.5	0.7	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.0